When filling out your bracket, it’s not a bad idea to start with your Final Four picks and work backwards. I looked at the last seven Final Fours to get an idea of the profile of a Final Four team and discovered the following:
25 out of 28 FF teams (89%) finished the tournament with adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies (i.e. points per possession adjusted for strength of schedule) in the Top 30 (LSU ’06, George Mason ’06, Butler ’10). Teams currently in the Top 30 in both categories: Ohio St., Duke, Kansas, Texas, Pitt, SDSU, Kentucky, Purdue and Syracuse. Teams that could play their way into a Top 30 ranking by the end of the tournament: Louisville, BYU, North Carolina, UConn, Belmont, Illinois, West Virginia.
24 of 28 FF teams (86%) finished the tournament with a Pythagorean win ranking in the Top 10 (#23 George Mason ’06, #14 Villanova ’09, #12 Butler ’10, #23 Michigan State ’10). Teams currently in the Top 10: Ohio St., Duke, Kansas, Texas, Pittsburgh, SDSU, Kentucky, Purdue, Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Teams that could play their way into the Top 10: Syracuse, Louisville, BYU, North Carolina, Washington, Utah St., UConn, Belmont and Florida.
23 of 28 FF teams (82%) were elite (in Top 7) in either offensive or defensive efficiency (George Mason ’06, Michigan State ’09, Villanova ’09, West Virginia ’10, Michigan State ’10). Teams currently in the Top 7 in either category: Ohio St., Duke, Kansas, Texas, Pitt, SDSU, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina and Utah St. Teams that could play their way into the Top 7: BYU, Washington, Clemson and Purdue.
Teams currently on all three lists: Ohio St., Duke, Kansas, Texas, Pitt, SDSU and Kentucky.
Teams that could play themselves onto all three lists: Purdue, BYU, Louisville and North Carolina.
When picking your Final Four teams, it would be wise to stick to these 11 teams. Moreover, five of the last seven overall winners were Top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while the other two were #1 in offensive efficiency. Only Ohio St. and Duke currently qualify for “overall winner status.” Kansas is #4 in offensive efficiency and #12 in defensive efficiency, so they could potentially play their way into Top 5 status in both categories (or the #1 overall offensive efficiency). Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Kentucky round out the Top 7 in offensive efficiency. In other words, you shouldn’t pick an overall winner that isn’t listed here.
