I outlined all of my picks in my annual “Need help with your March Madness bracket?” column, but I know that there are more than a few of you out there in pools that emphasize picking upsets by rewarding points based on seed, and that can change things rather significantly.
In addition to the upsets I’ve already outlined — Marquette, Richmond, Old Dominion, Utah St. and Michigan St. — here are a few more to consider:
1. In addition to Old Dominion, pick #9-seeds Tennessee and Illinois. All of the 8/9 games are toss-ups, so we might as well go for that extra point. The only #8-seed that I like a lot is George Mason, so stick with the Patriots.
2. Take all four #12-seeds. I already have Richmond and Utah St. advancing, but there’s a good chance that West Virginia (vs. Clemson?) and Arizona (vs. Memphis) fall as well. ESPN’s Giant Killers blog thinks Memphis has a good shot to upset Arizona, and the Mountaineers are only a 2.4-point Sagarin favorite over Clemson, so it’s not worth taking the favorite.
3. Take Belmont over Wisconsin. I really wanted to make this pick in my official bracket, but the Badgers’ advantage is just outside the 3+ margin needed for confident (~80%) pick. The Bruins are #18 in Pomeroy Pythagorean rating and #27 in Sagarin rating so they are much better than their seed would indicate.
4. In addition to the Spartans, take #10-seeds Florida St. and Penn St. The only #7-seed I really like to advance is Washington, which is this year’s metrics darling. The Seminoles and Nittany Lions are in pick’em games, so we might as well go with the underdogs.
5. In addition to Marquette, take #11-seeds Gonzaga and Missouri. Again, these two teams are slight underdogs, but represent a 5-point bonus, so it’s better to take the bigger seed.
Complete list of first round upsets: Clemson (assuming they beat UAB), Marquette, Tennessee, Memphis, Missouri, Penn St., Illinois, Richmond, Florida St., Old Dominion, Utah St., Belmont, Gonzaga, Michigan St.
In the second round, I’d take Washington over UNC, Georgetown over Purdue, Belmont over Utah St., Gonzaga over BYU and Michigan St. over Florida.
In the Sweet Sixteen, I’d pick Washington over Syracuse, Texas over Duke, Georgetown over Notre Dame and Michigan St. over Gonzaga. Those would be the final upsets that I’d pick in this format. I still think we have a great chance to see three or four #1 seeds in the tournament…but anything can happen. (See how I covered myself there?)
