Packers (8-4) @ Lions (2-10), 1:00PM ET
With all the bad weather going around this Sunday in the NFL, if you’re going to take an over it better be in a dome. The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams and 7-3 in the last 10 games in Detroit. The combination of Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings has nearly been unstoppable over the past month and I don’t see Chris Houston and the rest of Detroit’s suspect secondary slowing the pair down. Drew Stanton gave the Lions’ offense a lift last week and if Jahvid Best can get it going against an inconsistent Green Bay run defense, then Detroit should be able to move the ball somewhat. I like the over.
THE PICK: OVER 46.5
Dolphins (6-6) @ Jets (9-3), 4:15PM ET
The Jets should play much better Sunday than they did in New England on Monday, but I’m still confused as to why they’re a 5-point favorite. The Dolphins have struggled with New York over the years but they’re 5-1 on the road this season and covered in five of those six games. They’re also fighting for their playoff lives and bad weather is expected in the New Jersey area, which could make for a tight game. With how bad the Jets’ defense looked on Monday, it’s hard to like them giving up this many points. Chad Henne needs to play with more consistency and it would be nice if Brandon Marshall were available for this game, but I like Miami anyway. Their defense should keep Mark Sanchez and the Jets’ running game in check.
THE PICK: DOLPHINS +5
Patriots (10-2) @ Bears (9-3), 4:15PM ET
A snowstorm supposedly hit Chicago Saturday night and the wind could reach up to 30mph by game time. But the bad weather shouldn’t be a factor for the Patriots, who are used to snow and wind at this time of year. That said, I think the Bears are being undervalued here. They’ve played extremely well over the past month and they love playing the role of underdogs – especially at home. If Mike Martz doesn’t try to get cute with his playcalling (i.e. calling a bunch of vertical passes in bad weather with Jay Cutler as his quarterback), then I like the Bears to win outright. Cutler has been excellent at the short-to-medium-range passes this year so Martz needs to keep it there. The Pats have scored 45 points the past two weeks, but that trend stops today.
THE PICK: BEARS +3
Falcons (10-2) @ Panthers (1-11), 1:00PM ET
I hate this line and it has almost caused me to move off the Falcons several times throughout the week. And the Titans’ fluke backdoor cover (perhaps the worst backdoor cover in the history of backdoor covers) on Thursday night against the Colts doesn’t help matters. That said, this is the biggest mismatch on the board and seeing as how the Falcons came awfully close to losing to the Bucs last week and forking over their one-game lead in the NFC South, I think we’ll see a focused Atlanta team on Sunday. Matt Ryan won’t throw two picks like he did last weekend and Carolina can expect a heavy dose of Michael Turner. It’s high-time the Falcons’ defense steps up again and turns in a solid performance. Again, the backdoor cover scares me but the Falcons can beat the Panthers by a touchdown and a field goal right? Right?!
THE PICK: FALCONS –7.5
Season Record: 22-25-1
