Month: October 2010 (Page 4 of 62)

      Fox pregame show leads the league in laughing

      October 29, 2010 /

      Think that Howie, Terry and Jimmy spend an inordinate amount of time laughing at and with each other? They do, if you think 11% is too much.

      Per the Wall Street Journal…

      …an analysis of the CBS and Fox pregame shows before Week 5 shows that the hosts do spend a lengthy amount of time laughing—sometimes at nothing, sometimes at their own jokes and, occasionally, at things that are funny.

      The amount of time they laugh, though, is what sets them apart. The five hosts on Fox’s show—Curt Menefee, Terry Bradshaw, Howie Long, Michael Strahan and Jimmy Johnson—had a combined laughing time of two minutes, 22 seconds. That’s about 11.6% of the 20 minutes, 27 seconds they were shown on set together. Mr. Bradshaw was easily the laughing leader, going for about 92.4 seconds—including 2.5 seconds at the start of the show before anyone said anything.

      I don’t watch the Fox pregame show that much anymore. I’m usually watching the ESPN fantasy football pregame, listening for any late-breaking fantasy news while trying to avoid making any last-minute decisions based on Matthew Berry’s advice. Part of what turns me off about the Fox pregame show is its size (there are too many commentators) and how they’re always fake-laughing at each other. Now we have numbers to prove it.

      External Sports, Fantasy Football, NFL, Television

      Childress leaning towards sitting Brett?

      October 29, 2010 /
      EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 11: Brett Favre of the Minnesota Vikings walks off the field after the New York Jets won 29-20 at New Meadowlands Stadium on October 11, 2010 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)

      Here’s a shock: there are conflicting reports coming out of Minnesota about Brett Favre.

      Judd Zulgad of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune says that head coach Brad Childress is leaning towards starting Tarvaris Jackson against the Patriots on Sunday. But ESPN’s Ed Werder reports that Childress wants to start Favre (who is dealing with a bum ankle).

      While I would normally side with the beat writer who covers the team on a weekly basis (that being Zulgad), I find it hard to believe that a man who has allowed Favre to get away with murder since arriving in Minnesota last year would sit Brett against his will. When push comes to shove, Childress will always submit to Favre so if Brett wants to play, he’s going to play.

      That said, if Favre is too injured to play, I wouldn’t be surprised if he handed the ball off to Adrian Peterson on the first play of the game and then pulled himself out to protect his consecutive starts streak. Your majesty will probably hobble off the field and tell the media later that he intended on playing the full game, but re-injured the ankle on the first play.

      Either way, the Vikings’ quarterback situation looks bleak for Sunday. If Favre plays, that ankle can’t be in too good of shape to make it through an entire game and there’s a reason Childress sold his soul to bring Brett to Minnesota two years ago. If Favre is too injured to play, will the Vikings keep him active as Jackson’s backup or will he be inactive? If he’s inactive, who would be Jackson’s backup – Bernard Berrian? (Remember that Sage Rosenfels was traded to the Giants earlier in the year.)

      It should be an interesting scene in Foxboro come Sunday afternoon.

      External Sports, NFL

      2010 NFL Week 8 Picks

      October 29, 2010 /
      DETROIT - AUGUST 28: Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions warms up prior to the start of the preseason game against the Cleveland Browns at Ford Field on August 28, 2010 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

      We’re not there yet, but I’m driving straight into patheticville with my NFL picks this year. After a 1-3 Sunday in Week 7 (thank you Chargers, Saints and Cowboys for showing up in your respective games), I’m now 10-13-1 on the year. It’s getting to the point where I can’t even look at myself in the mirror anymore.

      Fade me at will…

      Redskins @ Lions, 1:00PM ET
      I love the Lions this Sunday. Matthew Stafford (shoulder) is back to full health and is reportedly “unleashing 70-yard bombs” in practice. The Redskins’ secondary can be hit or miss, even though DeAngelo Hall is coming off a four-interception game against the Bears and Jay Cutler last week. This will also be Washington’s second-straight road game and the Skins have their bye coming up, so there’s a chance they could get caught flatfooted. This Lions team has a different feel to it this year and is definitely playing with more confidence offensively. Assuming Stafford doesn’t suffer another setback with his shoulder, I like Detroit by a touchdown.
      THE PICK: LIONS –2.5

      Titans @ Chargers, 4:05PM ET
      The Chargers burned me last week against the Patriots but I’m going right back to the well this Sunday because I’m not that smart. Despite what the final score read, their defense played extremely well against New England last week and if it weren’t for a slew of mistakes by the offense, they probably beat the Pats soundly. No matter – I see them scooping up a win this Sunday against Tennessee. Vince Young hasn’t played a full game in three weeks and he may need a quarter or two to shake off the rust. I see San Diego controlling Chris Johnson and forcing the Titans into a shootout, which is something they don’t want with Young back under center. As long as the Bolts figure out a way to slow Kenny Britt, they should rebound from last week’s debacle.
      THE PICK: CHARGERS –3.5

      Seahawks @ Raiders, 4:15PM ET
      Their 59-point effort last week was a mirage, but the Raiders are better than people think. When healthy, Darren McFadden can be an elite back as he showed last week in Denver. I don’t have a ton of confidence in Jason Campbell or Oakland’s shoddy defense, but their lambasting of the Broncos last week should give them confidence moving forward. On the other side, the Seahawks have won two in a row but I’m still not convinced that this team can win on the road consistently. Despite their win in Chicago two weeks ago, I think the Hawks revert back to their losing ways away from Seattle.
      THE PICK: RAIDERS –2.5

      Steelers @ Saints, 8:20PM ET
      This may fall into the category of a trap, but I actually think the Saints are this bad without Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Their offense lacks that punch that won them a Super Bowl a year ago and they’re in trouble with Pittsburgh coming to town. It’s true that the Steelers can be had through the air, but they don’t give up points inside the red zone. They lead the league in points allowed and Drew Brees had all kinds of trouble in the red zone last week against the Browns. He’s pressing, which is unlike him, but I don’t see any signs of him shaking out of it either. I think New Orleans is in legitimate trouble this year and another loss would put them two back of the Falcons in the NFC South. Not good.
      THE PICK: STEELERS +1

      External Sports, NFL

      Tony Romo owners (or those unhappy with their QB play), here’s what you do…

      October 29, 2010 /
      Referee John Parry checks on injured quarterback Tony Romo during the first half in Cowboys Stadium October 25, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. Romo suffered a broken collar bone. UPI/Ian Halperin Photo via Newscom

      I feel your pain, Romo owners. I had him in two of my six leagues, and was ill-prepared for an injury to my star QB. In one league, I managed to pick up Josh Freeman and Jon Kitna, and in the other, I was only able to get Jason Campbell and David Garrard.

      It seems like a good time to recalculate our Quarterback By Committee (QBBC) to see what QB pairs have a combined schedule that will get us through the rest of the season. It’s fine to trade away depth at RB or WR in order to land a solid QB, but in many cases it’s unnecessary. A problem at QB is one of the easiest to mask since there is so much depth at the position. In most leagues, you can get capable QB play by picking up a couple of guys on the waiver wire and using them in tandem.

      To that end, I looked at the 18 (at least somewhat decent) QBs most likely to be available on your waiver wire. In order of decreasing availability (in ESPN leagues), the list includes:

      Donovan McNabb (94.2)
      Jay Cutler (86.4)
      Brett Favre (86.2)
      Carson Palmer (83.4)
      Mark Sanchez (68.6)
      Vince Young (62.3)
      Chad Henne (60.9)
      Matt Cassel (42.1)
      Sam Bradford (28.6)
      Matthew Stafford (27.1)
      David Garrard (26.5)
      Ryan Fitzpatrick (25.8)
      Josh Freeman (23.1)
      Matt Hasselbeck (20.8)
      Alex Smith/Troy Smith (12.7)
      Jon Kitna (10.9)
      Bruce Gradkowski/Jason Campbell (5.1)
      Matt Moore (1.8)

      I tweaked Footballguys’ rest-of-year (through Week 16) projections to reflect my own ranking for each player. I then applied FBG’s strength of schedule to calculate a projected points for all the remaining games, and then used a giant Excel spreadsheet to determine the best QB pairs for the remainder of the season.

      The two best QBBCs are Stafford/Cutler and Stafford/McNabb, but since Cutler and McNabb aren’t readily available in most leagues, we have to dig a little deeper. The third-highest QBBC is Stafford/Fitzpatrick, which has an average percent-owned of 26.5%, so the duo might be available in your league. Stafford/Freeman and Fitzpatrick/Freeman come in at #5 and #6, respectively.

      Below is a table of all 153 possible combinations. Duos that are listed in green have an average percent-owned of less than 20% (meaning there’s a decent chance that they’re available), while duos listed in red have an average percent-owned between 20% and 40%. I included expected points (in a high performance scoring system) for Weeks 8-16 and for Weeks 9-16 in case you find this article after the Week 8 games.

      Continue reading »

      External Sports, Fantasy Football, NFL

      2010 College Football Week 9 Picks

      October 29, 2010 /
      Oct 16, 2010; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley (7) gestures during the game against the California Golden Bears at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. USC defeated California 48-14. Photo via Newscom

      I hung onto my winning record in college football with another .500 effort in Week 8. Utah and UAB hit, but North Carolina never showed up in Miami and I fell into the trap that was Oklahoma at Missouri.

      That 4-0 weekend continues to elude me…for now.

      No. 5 Michigan State @ No. 18 Iowa, 3:30PM ET
      This game and the one I picked below it have trap written all over them, but I have a rule about not picking against underdogs in the top-10. Teams that have climbed into the top-10 got there for a reason and Michigan State is no different. While they very easily could have lost in Northwestern last week, the Spartans are on a mission and they know that if they beat Iowa on Saturday, they have a clear path to a Big Ten title. MSU has a reputation of slipping up every season, but this Spartans team has a different feel to it. Thanks to Edwin Baker, Sparty has the 28th ranked rushing offense in the nation and are 22nd in scoring. They face a stiff test this weekend going up against the No. 8 run defense in the country, but this one will be close. I’m taking the points with MSU.
      THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +6.5

      No. 6 Missouri @ No. 14 Nebraska, 3:30PM
      See above. Ever since I watched San Diego State nearly beat the Tigers in Missouri roughly a month ago, I haven’t been a backer of MIZZOU. Yet they keep on winning. Beating Oklahoma was a huge accomplishment and lucky for them, they have no time to celebrate with a trip to Lincoln coming up this Saturday. Nebraska’s defense shouldn’t have as much trouble with Missouri as it did last weekend against Oklahoma State, but they’ll still be challenged by the 16th-best passing offense in the nation. Again, I don’t make it a habit to pick against teams in the top-10 and while I fully admit I may be falling into a second trap (along with Michigan State), I like MIZZOU to cover.
      THE PICK: MISSOURI +7.5

      No. 2 Oregon @ USC, 8:00PM ET
      The idea of backing USC’s defense when it has the task of trying to slow Oregon’s explosive offensive attack makes me want to puke. But the Ducks embarrassed the Trojans last year in Eugene and now USC has a chance to return the favor. The Ducks are averaging 44.3 points per game on the road this year, which is still a lot, but not compared to the 55.1 PPG they’re averaging at home. They’re also allowing almost a touchdown more per game on the road than they are in Eugene and this USC team can score thanks to QB Matt Barkley. Oregon is just 2-5 against the number in its last seven meetings with USC and while I don’t think the Trojans win outright, I like them getting points at home in prime time.
      THE PICK: USC +6.5

      No. 17 Oklahoma State @ Kansas State, 12:00PM ET
      I’ll be honest, this pick was made for me the moment head coach Mike Gundy suspended receiver Justin Blackmon after the receiver was arrested on a DUI earlier this week in Dallas. Blackmon leads the nation in touchdowns and could have done some serious damage against a slow K-State defense. But you take him out of the equation and while the Cowboys’ offense is still chockfull of playmakers, I like the Wildcats’ chances of keeping things close. But they need to keep the ball on the ground with Daniel Thomas (the Big 12’s leading rusher) and keep Brandon Weeden off the field in order to have a chance. I think we see a much slower pace to OK State’s offense this weekend and K-State squeaks out a cover.
      THE PICK: KANSAS STATE +5

      Season Record: 13-11

      College Football, External Sports

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