Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve outlined my strategy for the upcoming fantasy football season in the various segments of the 2010 Fantasy Football Preview. In this post, I’ll attempt to pull them all together to provide a (somewhat) coherent strategy that you can, if you so choose, use on draft day.
Below is an overview of the various components. Note: I’m assuming this is a 12-team, TE-required PPR league.
1. Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)
This year, I am recommending that fantasy owners draft Eli Manning in the 7th round and Ben Roethlisberger in the 9th (since it looks like Roger Goodell is going to shorten his suspension to four games and in effect, raise Ben’s fantasy stock). I’m going with 7th/9th because it looks like Eli’s ADP is creeping up as the fantasy preseason wears on. If Eli goes before your pick in the 7th, then go with Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or Carson Palmer, in that order. Their schedules all mesh well with Big Ben’s.
2. Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC)
I’m targeting the Chargers in the 14th, and then using my next pick on the Patriots, Dolphins, Colts or Bears, in that order. If you miss out on the Chargers, there are various other options outlined in the DTBC piece.
3. Draft Zach Miller in the 8th round.
Here’s what I wrote about Miller in our TE preview:
Jason Campbell is in as the starter in Oakland, which means that for the first time, Miller will have a capable QB throwing the ball. Campbell loved throwing it to Chris Cooley in Washington, so Miller projects to have a nice year. He caught 37 passes over his final six games and with a solid QB under center, he should be able to build off of that success.
Of course, if Tony Gonzalez or Brent Celek somehow slip into the 8th, I’d take either over Miller, but barring that, Miller is my man in the 8th.
The rest is fill in the blanks and it largely depends on your draft position and who you like in each round. I put together the table below as an outline. Along the top you’ll see different picks (1-4, 5, 6-7, 8-12) which represents all the picks in the first round. (Note: You can see a bigger version of the table by clicking on it.)
If you get one of the top four picks, you should take one of the top four running backs — Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew. I would probably go in that order, but there isn’t much difference amongst the four. Then in the second round, you would grab Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson or Marques Colston. In the third, you’d grab Shonn Greene, Ryan Grant or Pierre Thomas. And so on…
If you have the #5 pick and one of the top four RBs is there, grab him. If not, draft Andre Johnson and zag while everyone else is zigging. On the way back, you’d target Roddy White (but if Miles Austin or Randy Moss slips, jump on them). If they’re all gone, grab Greene or Grant. As the draft wears on, if you’re fine with running with only three RBs, you can go with a WR in the 10th (Hester or Knox). But if you do grab White in the 2nd, you better go RB with a later pick, like Foster or Sproles in the 10th, or maybe Ronnie Brown, Justin Forsett or Ahmad Bradshaw in the 6th. That’s why those players (along with White) are listed in a different color.
Remember, this is only a guide and it represents my feelings about all these players as of Tuesday, August 10th at 7:45 PM. If positive or negative news breaks about any of these guys, move them up or down accordingly.
