All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings
Ah, the kicker. This is always the last part of our annual preview that I write because, honestly, it’s the last thing I’m thinking about on draft day. In most leagues, it doesn’t matter who your kicker is, as long as he’s decent. And if you don’t find a decent kicker on draft day, you’ll surely have an opportunity to pick one up as the season wears on.
I generally look for two things when selecting a kicker:
1. He kicks for a team with a good offense.
In each of the last three seasons, six of the top 10 fantasy kickers played for teams that finished in the top 10 in yards per game. More yards generally means more opportunities for the kicker, be it field goals or extra points. Moreover, 23/30 (77%) of the top 10 kickers over the same span have been on teams that finished in the top 15 in yards per game.
In the last three years, only three teams have had a kicker make the top 10 every season: Tennessee (4th, 4th, 2nd), New England (9th, 1st, 7th) and Green Bay (6th, 10th, 1st). Of those three, only the Patriots and the Packers made the top 10 in each season in yards per game. Tennessee was 12th in 2009, 21st in 2008 and 21st in 2007. For whatever reason, Tennessee’s strong running game coupled with a quality kicker (Rob Bironas) leads to a lot of made field goals.
Four teams — Philadelphia, Minnesota, New York Giants and Denver — have had a kicker make the top 10 in each of the last two years.
2. He kicks indoors or in a warm weather city, especially in the fantasy playoffs.
Looking at the aforementioned list of teams with consistent kicking success, nice weather has nothing to do with it. New England, Green Bay, Philadelphia, New York and Denver are hostile in December, while Tennessee is pretty iffy.
This is just a personal preference. I have been willing to give up a few points during the season if it means my kicker has nice weather to kick in during the fantasy playoffs. I don’t want to be looking at a goose egg when my guy has to go out into below freezing weather and a 32 MPH crosswind.
But, thinking about it a little more, if it comes to that — why not just change kickers? There are always guys out there on the waiver wire with good matchups, so if you have Mason Crosby and he’s about to kick in terrible weather, you have options. Looking ahead, I’m going to put more of an onus on #1 than on #2.
The most important rule to remember on draft day is that you don’t want to draft your kicker too early. A good rule of thumb is to wait until 8-10 kickers are already off the board before scooping up the best of what’s left. I’d rather use those 12th, 13th and 14th round picks on a few RB or WR flyers, the last part of my QBBC or the start of my DTBC.
With that in mind, here are a few players going in round 15 or later that look to be good values on draft day. ADP data from Antsports.com.
Rob Bironas (15.02)
Bironas is the exception to the ‘good offense’ rule. The Titans have a great running game, but often stall in the opponent’s territory, which is where Bironas comes in. He hasn’t missed more than five FGs in any of the last three seasons and has finished in the top 4 for three consecutive years. Vince Young played well down the stretch and should make the Titans’ offense more dynamic in 2010. Bironas has the Texans at home in Week 15 and plays at Kansas City in Week 16. The weather may not be great, but the matchups are.
Stephen Gostkowski (15.06)
He has finished in the top 9 in each of the last three seasons and there’s no reason to think another top 10 finish isn’t in store for 2010. The offense looks as good as last season, though the playoff schedule (GB, @ BUF) is pretty ugly, weather-wise.
Lawrence Tynes (16.04)
His fantasy playoff schedule (PHI, @ GB) isn’t great weather-wise, but the Giants’ kicker has been in the top 7 in each of the last two seasons and the G-men’s offense looks as strong as ever.
Matt Prater (16.01)
Prater has finished as PK8 in his first two seasons. The Denver offense is far from prolific, but he’s going to get his opportunities, and kicking in the thin Denver air increases his range. A favorable playoff schedule (@ OAK, HOU) doesn’t hurt either.
Dan Carpenter (N/A)
Carpenter finished as PK11 last season and the Dolphins’ offense should improve somewhat with the maturation of Chad Henne, the return of Ronnie Brown and the addition of Brandon Marshall. With two home games against the Bills and Lions, Carpenter might have the most favorable playoff schedule of all fantasy kickers.
Here are our official kicker rankings:
1. Mason Crosby
2. Nate Kaeding
3. Stephen Gostkowski
4. David Akers
5. Rob Bironas
6. Garrett Hartley
7. Lawrence Tynes
8. Dan Carpenter
9. Matt Prater
10. Ryan Longwell
11. Neil Rackers
12. David Buehler
13. Shayne Graham
14. Robbie Gould
15. Jeff Reed
16. Adam Vinatieri
17. Joe Nedney
18. Steve Hauschka
19. Nick Folk
20. Jay Feely
