Earlier this week, I identified a few games that seemed like good value plays based on the Sagarin ratings for the two teams. St. Mary’s won easily, while Georgia Tech and Utah State are going today. Let’s take a look at Saturday’s games.

Kansas State (-4.5) vs. BYU
Sagarin says this game is basically a pick ’em with the Wildcats having a slight (0.7-point) advantage. So that means that the Cougars should be a good value here since they’re getting 4.5 points. Based on what I saw of BYU against UNLV and Florida, I am not too impressed with the Cougars, so I don’t really like this bet.

Villanova (-4.5) vs. St. Mary’s
Sagarin gives the Wildcatsa 2.2-point advantage, so the Gaels look like a solid bet value-wise. I also like this bet with the eye test. Villanova has good guards, but so do the Gaels, and St. Mary’s also has 6’11” Omar Samhan down low. Villanova doesn’t have much on the front line. Not only do I like the Gaels plus the points, but they also have a good chance to win this one outright.

Kentucky (-9) vs. Wake Forest
Sagarin pegs Kentucky as a 6.7-point favorite, so Wake Forest would be the value pick here. Can they keep it close? Sure, but they’re coming off a late overtime win on Thursday and might be a little worn down. I’d take a pass.

Tennessee (-8.5) vs. Ohio
Sagarin says the Vols are an 8.3-point favorite, so at first glance, this line doesn’t look too far off. But Ohio has battled adversity all year and it was only after the last couple of weeks that the Bobcats really came together. Ohio has now won six straight and eight of its last nine, including Thursday’s big win against Georgetown. Tennesee is great at defending the three, but those are a lot of points for the Vols to give.

Recommended picks: St. Mary’s +4.5, Ohio +8.5