We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to provide in-depth NHL coverage this season. Here is a look at the weekend’s game and a look ahead at this week’s action. For more analysis, be sure to check out the On Goal Analysis website and the OGA Blog.
It is time for a short post on some keys things we noticed this first weekend of the new hockey season and what to look for next week.
A short weekend…
…but an exciting and interesting one. At this point in the season, it is not worth getting too worked up while watching your team play. But if they were not winning, the time to wring hands is fast approaching. Because On Goal Analysis’ proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve is not yet ready to determine who will or will not be in the 2010 playoffs, this week’s primary post focus is on some of the interesting storylines from the first three days and nights of the new Hockey season.
The first note we caught was the President’s Trophy winner, runner up and No.3 team ALL losing their season openers. BOS recovered somewhat by going 1-1 with a HUGE 7-2 second game win over CAR. SJS did likewise with a Game #2 win in ANA. But DET starts 2-0 with 1/3 of games against STL down the tubes. Will this come back to haunt the Red Wings in any way? Shaken confidence and increased frustration are likely by-products here. This team has a mere four days to travel home and practice before receiving CHI at home, a club that took three-of-four points home from the European openers.
We also found several points where science kicked in to display the thought theory that ‘Nature Seeks Equilibrium.’
• The No. 1, undefeated pre-season team (VAN) starts 0-2, both loses within the Division. Might this skew things out of their favor come the end of the season? Especially when the difference between the 8th and 9th seeds since the Lockout has averaged 1.5 games? We shall see…
• The team picked to be No. 15 in the West (COL) and 30th overall in many pre-season polls begins the season 2-0 with two, convincing victories by an average of three goals. That Wojtek Wolski fella is on a roll.
• PIT, pacing themselves in pre-season with only one W are 2-0 to start defense of their Cup victory in games against the two NY’s.
We also were watching the top five 2009 Entry Draft prospects currently active with their clubs this past weekend and their efforts:
• John Tavares’ first Goal came against the defending Stanley Cup champions on home ice. In fact, 1-1 for 2 points on the first two Islanders’ goals of the season.
• Victor Hedman chipped in 1 Assist in TBL’s season opening loss to ATL.
• Matt Duchene has 1 Assist after two COL victories.
• Evander Kane provided 1 Assist in ATL’s opening night victory over TBL
• Dmitry Kulikov has 0 points in two games so far for FLA, but he has not register a SOG as of yet – he needs to start scoring or he is likely to be sent back down for more experience.
It was difficult not to note that CGY begins the new season 2-0 against the Northeast Division. CGY’s lead-off win was the first season opener they have won since The Lockout. Interestingly, they are 3-0-2 in Game #2’s in that same time span.
And unfortunately, key injuries have already begun to surface since the season began:
• CAR’s Eric Cole suffered a fracture in his lower left leg and will be out of commission 4-6 weeks. It sounds like a country song for the oft injured Cole, but doesn’t play well at all.
• MTL’s Andrei Markov lacerated the tendon in his ankle. Reports are that the Canadiens leading defensive scorer will be out four months. MTL also lost Centerman Glen Metropolit and Defenseman Ryan O’Byrne in the same period Saturday night. Is this the harbinger of things to come for MTL this season? It has been many a team’s undoing for a season.
• NSH’s J.P. Dumont was knocked out of the game against DAL on Saturday night after a hard check into the boards. To be determined is whether or not he has a concussion as his head struck the dasher, but some precautionary rest may ensue.
• TBL’s Kurtis Foster left the ATL game early with a dreaded ‘undisclosed lower body injury.’ Early reports indicate it is not serious, but it limited him to a bit over 2 minutes in TBL’s opener.
And next week…
There are a two categories of note reference this next week’s games. First is a note about Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)-centric matchups (read the Tao of OGA for an explanation of the PQC). And second is key matchups for the emotional, physical, and therefore, entertainment value of the game.
PQC-centric measurements include five Eastern and two Western Conference teams who will hit the halfway point of the PQC’s first 10-game furlong of the season. In the Eastern Conference this is CAR (at TBL), MTL (at EDM), PHI (versus ANA), PIT (at TOR) and WSH (at DET). Out in the Western Conference, it is CGY (versus DAL) and SJS (versus MIN).
While the first half of the lead furlong has never predicted a team IN or OUT of the playoffs as far as the PQC is concerned, it might be an indicator to watch those seven teams’ next three games closely. The OGA staff might be able to have an early tell as to whether or not any of the teams are starting so well or so poorly that they get the early IN or OUT call. You can follow this analysis by going to the OGA Store at and hooking your season-long subscription to the Daily Tip-In Report.
There are several key matchups this week. Chronologically speaking, they are:
Monday, 5 October for the first NYR at NJD’s great, sorta-cross-town rivalry contest of the season. (For a recap of the game, click here.)
Tuesday, 6 October, Friday, 9 October and Saturday, 10 October are three intra-divisional games in a row for CAR after opening the season 0-2.
Tuesday, 6 October’s OTT @ TOR tilt because it is another, great all-Canadian rivalry.
Tuesday, 6 October and Wednesday, 7 October are MTL’s back-to-back road games at fellow Canadian teams CGY and VAN.
Thursday, 8 October is a huge night:
• CGY @ EDM because the battle of Alberta is always an emotional thing.
• CHI @ DET as the third, intra-divisional game the Red Wings have played AND if lost, out will come the pundits for DET’s chances this season.
• COL @ NSH to see if the Avalanche’s first two games were an anomaly or not.
• NYR @ WSH as the first meeting since the Rangers’ Game 7 Eastern Conference semi-finals ouster and Donald Brashear against his old teammates.
• PIT @ PHI as the Pennsylvania turnpike series heats up for the season.
And finally, Saturday, 10 October for two contests:
• ANA @ PHI for two reasons. First is that they will be somewhat fatigued playing in their third game in five nights on the road. The main reason people will watch this game is because it will be Chris Pronger taking on his old team for the first time.
• PHX vs CBJ to see the crowd turnout at the Coyotes’ home opener
All in all, a value-added week of NHL play is on the buffet for your grazing pleasure. The local grocery should have a good run on chips and beer because the NHL and NHL fans support their local economy.
We’ll be back next week with some engaging analysis of the NHL. You can catch us during the week at www.ongoalanalysis.com.
