The conference finals are set, so it’s time to update our playoff power rankings…

Note: Click on the team name to read a short offseason blueprint.

R.I.P.

16. Pistons
15. Sixers
14. Heat
13. Mavericks
Even though it ended with a disappointing finish against the Nuggets, the Mavs made a pretty nice run this year. Mark Cuban’s payroll this season ($94.7 million) was ridiculous, but it’s not clear that he really gives a damn. He wants an NBA title and seems willing to pay for it. That said, Jason Kidd is a free agent and will have to take a big pay cut from his 2008-09 salary ($21.4 million). Kidd is 36 years old, but he’s still a top 15 NBA point guard. But how much longer can he play at that level? By letting him go, they’d be setting themselves back a year or two as they try to find a replacement. The Mavs really shot themselves in the foot when they traded away Devin Harris. Brandon Bass is also a free agent and according to his PER (16.49) and the eye-test, he’s an above-average power forward. He’s starter-cailber or a great bench player for a good playoff team. It’s going to be interesting to see what kind of contract he gets in this economy.

12. Hawks
11. Hornets
10. Bulls
9. Jazz
8. Rockets
All the key cogs are back save for free agent Ron Artest. The Rockets are about $8 million under the luxury tax threshold, so they can re-sign him and have about the same payroll as they did this season. He hasn’t turned 30 yet, so a three- or four-year deal wouldn’t be outrageous. But do the Rockets want to move forward with him? In the last four games of the Laker series, he shot 28% from the field, so he’s a different player without Yao Ming (or T-Mac) in the lineup. He’s at his best offensively when he’s more of a complementary player. Of the teams with substantial cap space — the Grizzlies, Pistons, Hawks, Thunder, Kings, Raptors, Blazers and T-Wolves — who would be interested in rolling the dice on Artest? Maybe the Blazers or Raptors, but I doubt any of the other teams would be interested. So that means that the Rockets might be able to retain him for a mid-level deal. If so, and if Houston can get Yao Ming and T-Mac healthy, they’d be a very formidable team heading into the postseason — but injuries have been their problem since they acquired T-Mac and Yao.

7. Blazers
6. Spurs
5. Celtics
I don’t think there’s any reason for Danny Ainge to panic. The reason the C’s were knocked out early in this year’s playoffs is pretty simple — Kevin Garnett was not healthy. If KG were playing at a high level, we’d be getting ready for a very interesting Cleveland/Boston matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals, but without him, the Celtics aren’t the same team. The “Big Three” are all locked up for another season, so the key is to get everyone healthy and make another run. One thing standing in Boston’s way is the fact that Garnett’s absence allowed Glen “Big Baby” Davis to thrive (15.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and he suddenly looks like a starting-caliber power forward. With Garnett’s contract running three more seasons, it’s going to be hard for Ainge to justify making a big investment in a player that should be coming off the bench for a playoff-caliber team. But what kind of interest is Davis going to generate around the league? I doubt anyone signs him for more than the mid-level, but even the price of a mid-level contract — $5.8 million (or thereabouts) — is going to cost the Celtics twice that since they will likely be over the luxury tax threshold. If I’m Ainge, I would try to convince Davis to stay for three-years and $9 million and explain that he’s the future at power forward once Garnett retires. In 2012, Garnett will be 36 and Davis will be 26 — a good time for a transition. It’s going to be a tough sell if another team offers him a full mid-level deal (five years, $29 million), but I don’t think that’s likely in this economy. The C’s do have Leon Powe as a backup plan if Davis leaves. He doesn’t have the offensive skills of Davis, but if Garnett is healthy, Powe’s hard-nosed inside play is a nice complement.

ROAD BLOCKS

4. Magic
3. Nuggets
I still think we’re headed for a Cavs/Lakers matchup in the Finals, but both the Magic and Nuggets are capable of upsetting the apple cart if they play a great series. Right now, the Nuggets seem to be more likely to spring the upset since they’re playing so well and the Lakers have been struggling. They have a number of offensive weapons — Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Nene and J.R. Smith — and are playing better defense than in years past. The Lakers are going to have to play really well in at least four games to get by the Nuggets.

The Magic are coming off a grueling seven-game series in which they dispatched the defending champs (sans Kevin Garnett). I wouldn’t say that they are playing “well,” but they did play great in Game 7 and pretty good in Game 6. If they can carry that kind of performance over to the Cavs series, they have a shot. They match up with Cleveland pretty well, though they better have a good scheme ready for LeBron. Mickael Pietrus can hold his own athletically, but if Hedo Turkoglu and/or Rashard Lewis are trying to keep LeBron out of the lane (without a ton of help), things could get ugly.

DESTINED FOR THE FINALS?

2. Lakers
1. Cavs
The Cavs have definitely looked stronger thus far, but it’s way too early to count the Lakers out. I still think that the Lakers have the personnel matchup, but their bipolar nature and the Cavs’ home court advantage make me wonder. The Lakers dominated both regular season matchups, so if we do get a Cavs/Lakers Finals, it should be a classic.

Check back tomorrow for a more detailed preview of the conference finals.