2009 MLB Preview: #17 San Francisco Giants
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Offseason Movement: The G-Men added a solid piece to their starting rotation in former Cy Young-winner Randy Johnson. The club also signed free agent Edgar Renteria to play shortstop, and added Jeremy Affeldt and Bob Howry in hopes to strengthen their bullpen. Rich Aurilia and Josh Phelps were given minor league contracts, although Phelps was already reassigned to minor league camp.
Top Prospect: Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Who would have thought that the farm system that produced Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Brian Wilson and Jonathan Sanchez would have a pitcher as its top prospect? While catcher Buster Posey, corner infielder Angel Villalona and starter Tim Alderson deserve mention here, Bumgarner earns the Giants’ top prospect tag for his “ace” potential. While he isn’t expected to take Lincecum’s No. 1 spot any time soon, Bumgarner could turn out to be a San Fran’s No. 2 in the next couple seasons. He dominated his first full year in the minors after being selected in the first round out of high school, posting a 1.46 ERA in A-ball. He has a fastball that reaches 97 mph and once he develops his secondary pitches, Bumgarner should make his first big league appearance in no time.
The Big Question: Will this team score any runs?
Out of all the teams in baseball last year, only the Padres (637) scored fewer runs than the Giants (640). And all San Fran did to reshape their roster was give youngsters Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa full-time roles. While Sandoval has a ton of potential, he is largely unproven and along with Bengie Molina and Fred Lewis, he comprises one of the weakest 3-4-5 middle-of-the-orders in baseball. From top to bottom, the Giants once again have one of the worst offenses in the league and unless they can add a big bat at the trade deadline, they’ll likely play in a ton of low scoring ballgames this year.
Outlook: This team actually has scattered potential, but they’re just not there yet. 2008 Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is already one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball and it seems like his popularity has grown overnight. Randy Johnson, Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez join Lincecum to form one of the better young rotations in the National League. Unfortunately, they’ll once again have little to no run support because GM Brian Sabean has ignored drafting top position players for years. Instead, he has chosen to overpay for guys like Aaron Rowand, and therefore must hope that youngsters Pablo Sandoval, Fred Lewis, Travis Ishikawa and Kevin Frandsen have breakout years. Randy Winn, Edgar Renteria and Bengie Molina are fine role players, but they’re being counted on as the core of the Giants’ lineup, which limits this club’s potential. The starting pitching will once again be solid and the bullpen actually looks decent with closer Brian Wilson leading the way, followed by free agent addition Jeremy Afeldt and promising youngsters Alex Hinshaw and Sergio Romo. But the lineup will once again hold the Giants back this year and unless Sabean has a trick up his sleeve at the trade deadline, San Fran will have to wait another year or two before they’re competitive again.
Projection: 3rd NL West
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Posted in: MLB
Tags: 2009 MLB Preview, 2009 MLB Projections, 2009 MLB Team Previews, Aaron Rowand, Alex Hinshaw, Barry Zito, Bengie Molina, Bob Howry, Brian Wilson, Edgar Renteria, Fred Lewis, Jeremy Affeldt, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, MLB Preview 2009, Pablo Sandoval, Randy Johnson, Randy Winn, Sergio Romo, Tim Lincecum, Travis Ishikawa
Pretty good overview, one of the better ones I’ve seen. I would have also noted how poorly SS, 1B, and 3B performed last year and see how Renteria, Ishikawa, and Sandoval projects to do over last season’s offensive abominations at those positions.
And I believe that Rowand just had a down year because of his nearly opening day injury affecting him for much of the season; I don’t think he had enough time to heal properly. Giants fans were talking about how Randy Winn was overpaid in his first year because he did so poorly, but just a short time later, he has won over most and is beloved even.
My only quibble is that most analysis don’t account for the possibility that if the rotation pitches as well as it is capable of doing (under 4.00 overall) even a poor offense can win .500 or above.
Still, nice job overall.
Also, because my code was old, the refresh deleted my comment and contact info…
Thank you for your comments, obsessivegiantscompulsive.
I love Rowand (and how could you not if you’re a true baseball fan?) and agree that he was limited by a rib injury all year. My biggest beef is with Sabean not producing any positional players from the farm system and therefore has to overpay for Rowand. (And I still wonder if Sabean made the wrong move by not moving Winn over to CF and allowing Nate Schierholtz or Dan Ortmeier win the RF job instead of signing Rowand.)
If Renteria can swing the bat like he did in Atlanta a couple years ago, I think he’s a quality signing even though once again, Sabean looks like he overpaid. The key will be guys like Frandsen, Ish and Sandoval. If they produce, the Giants will have a shot at the NL Wild Card because of their pitching.
We’ll just have to wait and see!
their pitching staff is a joke once you take out lincecum. Zito, sanchez, and 65 year old randy johnson are part of “one of the better young rotations in the NL”??? WOW!
“the bullpen actually looks decent with closer Brian Wilson leading the way” – Yea his 4.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP will lead the giants right back down to last place!
This article is a joke right?
“their pitching staff is a joke once you take out lincecum. Zito, sanchez, and 65 year old randy johnson are part of “one of the better young rotations in the NL”??? WOW!”
Pretty convenient you left out Matt Cain, who is one of the better young arms in the NL and if he could ever get any run support he’d prove it. And a lot of people are high on Jonathan Sanchez – not just me. (I think most people would take 10-12 wins from Randy Johnson in the middle of the rotation, too.)
I’m not going to fight you on Zito, but moving him down in the rotation could help. I think he’s a mental midget, so maybe with less pressure he’ll actually produce again.
““the bullpen actually looks decent with closer Brian Wilson leading the way” – Yea his 4.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP will lead the giants right back down to last place!”
Right, but that was his first year and he still saved 41 games. He needs to cut down on the walks and he always allows the first runner to get on, but you can’t deny that the kid has a bright future. Talk to me about Wilson’s ERA and WHIP numbers after this season.
“This article is a joke right?”
No, I think your comments are a joke since they weren’t very well thought out. You conveniently forgot Cain, dogged on a promising youngster in Sanchez using no logic and reached with your comment about the bullpen by only using Wilson’s stats.
It’s clear you don’t actually pay attention to the Giants since your comments were baseless at best.
Ok you are right about Cain.
I completely disagree with you on Sanchez. He has a 5.15 ERA and an astronomical 1.50 WHIP in his career! Even his minor league numbers are nothing to convince me that this kid will ever be a decent MLB pitcher. In 2005 (the year before he was called up) pitching in single A he had a 4.08 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP. Those numbers are not great for single A. The one thing that he can do is strike people out! Maybe he would be a better reliever?
Lets breakdown the bullpen now:
1. Howry (career 3.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) – solid career numbers but this guy had the worst year of his career last year and is clearly on the decline.
2. Affeldt (career 4.55 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) – his last 2 years have been very good. But 3 years ago his ERA was 6.40 and his WHIP was 1.61. Which guy will show up this year?
3. Romo (career 2.12 ERA, .71 WHIP) – has only pitched 34 innings in the bigs but this kid looks really impressive and has great minor league numbers too. He may be the giants best reliever but he is already on the DL. If healthy, he should be the one closing.
4. Hinshaw (career 3.40, 1.51 WHIP) – has no control but K’s a ton of batters. Has only pitched 40 innings in the majors.
5. Sadler (career 4.28, 1.41 WHIP) – another 28 year old unproven arm. Has only pitched 48 innings in MLB. He has pitched well in the minors with a career 3.15 ERA.
Overall I would say that this bullpen is basically made up of minor league pitchers. Romo looks good, but there are probably 27 other bullpens in the major leagues that I would take over this one.
Your coment on Brian Wilson, “you can’t deny that the kid has a bright future”
Then I must be in denial because he is 27 years old and was lucky to save 41 games last year.
Maybe I am wrong but I think this team will have a hard time winning 72 games again this year.
Chris, I think the Giants are somewhere between your and my projections. Do I think they win the division? Absolutely not. Do I think they’re a last place team? Absolutely not.
One of the biggest problems the Giants had last year with their bullpen was that their relievers put too many guys on with walks and then they were prone to give up the long ball. Affeldt and Howry were signed for one reason and one reason only: because they both throw strikes. Howry was brutal last year – can’t argue with that. But as you mentioned, Affeldt has been pretty solid the past two seasons and both of them should be helped out by moving to a pitchers park. (Don’t forget that Howry pitched in that little league field the Cubs call Wrigley.)
Romo, Hinshaw, Sadler, Martinez – you hit the nail on the head when you said they’re all unproven. You’re absolutely right, which is why I said the bullpen looks “decent” this year and nothing more. Your opinion is that the bullpen is somewhere between what my dog left on the sidewalk earlier today and whatever is left of Mondonna’s who-who. That’s cool – that’s your opinion. I happen to think the unit is better than what people think because of unknowns like Martinez, Romo (who will start the season on the DL) and Hinshaw who are possibly set for solid seasons, coupled with the additions of Affeldt and Howry.
We’re just going to have to agree to disagree on Wilson (and Sanchez for that matter). I think he has the perfect closers’ mentality in that he wants to come in every night in a tight game and shut the door. He did struggle when he first got to the minors and that’s why he’s entering his second full season at 27 (and he just turned 27 two weeks ago). But when was 27 old in baseball? This isn’t the NFL where guys have a limited ceiling. Prime years are 26-30 on average in MLB. And he was lucky to save 41 games? How so? Because the Giants play in a lot of tight games? Was K-Rod lucky to save 62 last year? I’m confused.
I think they win 82 games this year. Maybe we should have a gentleman’s bet. They win 72 or fewer games, I’ll dedicate a post to you about how I was wrong about their projection and how one of our readers was right to call me out in the spring. They sniff 82 wins, then I’ll do a Giants-related post and you admit in the comments section how you sold them short.
Deal?!
And who is your team, Chris? Dodgers? Not trying to start anything – I’m truly interested.
Haha… lets set the over/under at 77. Right in between, then we have a bet. My team is the yankees, but I do think the dodgers will win 90 games this year.
NOW WE’RE TALKING CHRIS! See, this is what sports are all about – betting!
All right it’s set:
77 wins is a push and we’re both geniuses.
76 wins or fewer and you get your post dedicated to your brilliance.
78 wins or more and I get to boast my brilliance.
And I ranked the Yankees #1 in my preview and you’re hammering me about the #17 Giants?? What up with that, Chris?!?
My dad is a huge Yankee fan (he’s from NY). Tough day for CC, but I think he was a little nervous pitching on that new contract. He’ll be fine…
Thank you, George – I apperciate your comment.
Anthony,
That wasn’t me above. I think Brian Wilson is a talented pitcher, I really do. Though this whole article is about pitching (I think, I didn’t read all the posts), I think the Giants’ REAL problem lies in their offense. When you don’t have many guys who bat above .300 (I’m not even complaining above homers), then you’re team in going to have a problem. Nobody steals bases either. They play in a winnable division, but are still a couple years behind catching the young, young Dodgers.
I love the idea of betting with our readers, though.
Chris – thanks for the comment.
This was the Giants preview for the 2009 MLB Preview, so I did break down San Fran’s horrible offense a couple times in the write up.
I think the Giants are getting there, but they’re another year or so away from competing. Buster Posey, Angel Villanlona and Nick Noonan are on their way to save the offense, but unfortunately the Giants are stuck with what they have for another year or two.
I think they led the league in stolen bases last year and they’re currently 10th in the MLB this year, so I don’t know what you were thinking when you said nobody steals bases you crazy goof. Emmaunel Burriss steals bases (when he gets on). Randy Winn steals bases. For whatever reason he’s scared to play this year, but Fred Lewis can steal bases, too.
You’re right, though – they’re years away from competing with the Dodgers because Brian Sabean has failed to develop offensive talent along with the Giants’ great pitching. The Dodgers’ youth can win now and it shows. That’s an unstoppable rebel force right now and that’s without Manny.
And it’s always a smart idea to bet with our readers if they call your work a joke!