Month: January 2009 (Page 3 of 61)

Greg Cossell uses immense film study to predict Super Bowl winner

Greg Cosell of SportingNews.com made his Super Bowl XLIII prediction on Thursday and claimed victory for Pittsburgh because the, “one-dimensional Cardinals can’t beat Steelers D.”

He even gave a predicted final score:

Larry FitzgeraldAfter careful deliberation and hours and hours of film study the past 10 days, I have come to this conclusion about Super Bowl 43: Steelers 27, Cardinals 20.

After reading that, one could come to the conclusion that Cosell was being facetious. He didn’t really spend “hours and hours” of film study the past 10 days – he just said that as a light-hearted way to set up the rest of his column.

But then he wrote this halfway through his article:

One of the continuing problems I see on film is that offenses get overly focused on locating and accounting for Harrison. LeBeau understands this and then burdens the offensive line with a lot of movement before the snap, particularly after the pass protection gets set. That creates confusion in many instances, particularly when Harrison and Woodley line up on the same side. Often, another rusher, such as linebacker James Farrior, is not accounted for and has a free path to the quarterback.

Okay, maybe he was being serious about watching hours and hours of film to come to his prediction. That said, does anyone find his predicted score interesting? He spent hours and hours of film study to determine that the Steelers will win by seven and that the total combined score between the two teams will be 47? Wonder where we’ve seen those numbers before? Ah, yeah –those are the exact numbers that oddsmakers gave for the point spread and over/under total for the game.

Come on, Greg. It took you hours and hours of film preparation to come up with the exact same numbers oddsmakers set the lines at? You could do a little better than that.

Mo Williams upset about All-Star snub

The All-Star reserves were announced last night and Mo Williams’ name was not on the list. And he’s none too happy about it.

The Magic will get three All-Stars—Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis now as well as starting center Dwight Howard—but the Cavs, despite having the best record in the NBA, will only send LeBron James.

Really, it came down to Nelson or Williams, and Mo first and foremost didn’t want to take anything away from his colleague.

“Congratulations to him,” Williams said with a smile. “He deserves it, but there’s only a certain amount of players that can play.”

“You want me to tell you like it is?” Williams chuckled. “Then I’ll tell it like it is. It’s a tragedy. How many players get into the game, and how many players did the Magic get in? They’ve got three players, and we’ve got the best record. Not just in the Eastern Conference, but in the whole league… Best team in the world, and we got one player.”

The guy’s got a point, and [Ben] Wallace’s got his back.

“He took us from a team that was on the verge of competing for a championship to making us a legit championship contender,” Wallace added.

I disagree with Wallace that Williams is the main reason that the Cavs are playing as well as they are (or were, before getting trounced by the Magic last night). LeBron has returned from his stint with Team USA with a focus on defense, and that has translated to the rest of the team. He even has Williams gaining a rep for being a decent defender, which is something that has plagued him throughout his career.

Here are the YTD stats for Williams and Nelson:

Williams: 16.92 PER (#16 PG), 17.0 p, 4.1 a, 3.3 r, 0.8 s, 47% FG, 38% 3PT, 94% FT

Nelson: 20.94 PER (#4 PG), 16.9 p, 5.3 a, 3.4 r, 1.2 s, 51% FG, 45% 3PT, 88% FT

The two players are essentially the same in points and rebounds. Mo has an advantage in free throw percentage, but Jameer has a big advantage in assists, steals, FG% and three-point accuracy. Moreover, Williams plays an extra two minutes per game, so he has more time to post stats. Clearly, from the Player Efficiency Rating, Nelson is the far more productive and efficient player.

Williams has also come up fairly small in the Cavs’ three “marquee” games this season. He shot 6-16 in a bad loss against the Lakers on Jan. 19 and posted just 13 points and one assist against the Celtics on Jan. 9. That trend continued after the reserves were announced when he shot just 4-15 from the field against the Magic last night.

So this comes down to how many players elite teams should get on the All-Star team. I actually think that Mo is more deserving than Rashard Lewis, but that Nelson is more deserving than Williams. But this probably has to do more with LeBron than anything. He is viewed as a one-man wrecking crew and that will automatically discount the contributions of his teammates. Throw in the fact that Allen Iverson was voted in by the fans and it was obvious that someone was going to get screwed. It happens every year.

Williams has a gripe, but Jameer Nelson deserves to be an All-Star, there’s no doubt about that.

Super Bowl XLIII Notes 1/30

Ben Roethlisberger– Despite the best efforts of Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin to keep the story under raps, Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger apparently underwent an x-ray on his ribs on Wednesday. Big Ben suffered the injury in the AFC Championship Game, but there is no indication that he’ll miss the Super Bowl. (Rotoworld.com)

– Hines Ward returned to full practice on Thursday and is on track to start Sunday against the Cardinals. (FanHouse.com)

– Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times writes that the Steelers’ defense won’t let Kurt Warner enjoy a fairy-tale ending to his 2008 season. (Los Angeles Times)

– Tim Cowlishaw of the Dallas Morning News wrote an excellent piece featuring the top two safeties in this year’s Super Bowl: Adrian Wilson of the Cardinals and Troy Polamalu of the Steelers. (Dallas Morning News)

– Need picks for the Super Bowl? Head to our partners at Sports Gaming Edge.com for daily picks & previews from some of the best handicappers in the business. They’ll give you top picks throughout the year.

Tomlinson to stay with Chargers

As of right now, every indication out of San Diego is that running back LaDainian Tomlinson will not be traded this offseason and will be in a Chargers uniform in 2009.

LaDainian TomlinsonLaDainian Tomlinson’s future with the Chargers might be the most discussed non-Super Bowl story of the week. And it took another interesting turn Thursday. In his chat on NFL.com, analyst Gil Brandt reported that Tomlinson likely will remain with San Diego in 2009.

I was with Norv Turner and Dean Spanos last night and talked at length about LT returning. Mr. Spanos led me to believe that LT would be on their team in 2009. I think the Chargers have a good team. With Merriman back that really helps that defense a lot. And Turner has made some coaching changes. One of the keys to their team next year will be how LT Marcus McNeil plays and if he rebounds from a poor 2008.

The Chargers keeping LT is a no-brainer. Given Tomlinson’s poor 2008 campaign, his 2009 cap charge of $6.725 million is hefty. But the point is he’s still under contract and Darren Sproles isn’t a featured back so if the team could have them both in their backfield again next season (the Chargers would have to re-sign Sproles because he’s a free agent), they’d be in pretty good shape. And maybe LT will restructure his contract and allow San Diego to keep Sproles.

Clearly the Chargers didn’t think LT was finished heading into 2008 or else they would have made a better attempt to hang onto Michael Turner. So why dump LT now after one year? He’s a hard worker and he knows his career is now on the downside. San Diego should show him some loyalty and hopefully he repays you with a bounce back in 2009.

Couch Potato Alert: 1/30

It’s finally here.

After months of preparation and endless promotion, Super Bowl XLIII will be played this Sunday. The game is scheduled to kickoff at 6:28 PM, but the pregame show festivities will begin at 10 AM with NFL Countdown on ESPN. If that is too early to begin your tailgating day, then tune into the NFL Network at 11:30 AM for their six and half hour NFL GameDay show. For those who are late arrivals to the party, NBC will begin their coverage of Super Sunday at 1 PM with Bob Costas hosting The Super Bowl Pregame Show that features a cast of thousands breaking down the premier matchup of the season.

All times ET…

NFL
Sunday, 6:28 PM: Super Bowl XLIII — Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. (NBC)

NBA
Friday, 7 PM: Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons (ESPN)
Friday, 9:30 PM: Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Hornets (ESPN)
Saturday, 7:30 PM: Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat (NBA TV)
Sunday, 2:30 PM: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons (ABC)

NHL
Friday, 7 PM: Pittsburgh Penguins @ New Jersey Devils
Saturday, 1 PM: New York Rangers @ Boston Bruins
Saturday, 10:30 PM: Chicago Black Hawks @ San Jose Sharks

College Basketball
Saturday, 12 PM: #22 Notre Dame @ #3 Pittsburgh (ESPN)
Saturday, 1 PM: Michigan @ #17 Purdue (CBS)
Saturday, 2 PM: #23 Georgetown @ #8 Marquette (ESPN Full Court)
Saturday, 6 PM: San Diego @ #25 Gonzaga (ESPN2)

Tennis: Australian Open
Friday, 3:30 AM: Men’s Semi-Final (ESPN2)
Saturday, 3:30 AM: Women’s Final (ESPN2)
Sunday, 3:30 AM: Men’s Final (ESPN2)

« Older posts Newer posts »