It’s an election year, and while we’re all being inundated with political commercials from both sides of the aisle, we should be looking at a different kind of candidate – the fantasy football breakout candidate.
What makes a good breakout candidate? In short, the player must have two things: increased opportunity and developing talent. Typically, breakout players are young. The simple fact is that the older a player is, the less likely he is to break out. Last season, at 27, Earnest Graham racked up 1,222 yards and 10 TD after Carnell Williams went down with a season-ending injury. It was Graham’s fourth season, and in his previous three, he had carried the ball a total of 52 times. Justin Fargas (also 27) took over the starting spot in Oakland and finished with 1,197 yards and four TD. In his second season, LenDale White posted 1,224 yards and scored seven times for the Titans.
In the realm of wideouts, Roddy White had a prototypical breakout season in his third year, going from 30-506-0 the previous season to 83-1202-6 last year. Braylon Edwards had a solid second season (61-884-6), but few predicted the numbers he would post in his third season (80-1289-16).
Greg Jennings broke out in his sophomore season (53-920-12), which wasn’t a huge surprise since he had such a solid rookie campaign (45-632-3). Brandon Marshall also made a big jump in his second season (102-1325-7) after Javon Walker missed half the season with a knee injury. Santonio Holmes is yet another example of a second-year breakout WR (52-942-8).
At quarterback, Tony Romo (4211 yards, 36 TD) and Derek Anderson (3787 yards, 29 TD) both had breakout seasons in 2007. To a somewhat lesser extent, Jay Cutler (3497 yards, 20 TD) and David Garrard (2509 yards, 18 TD) did too.
At tight end, Donald Lee (48-575-6), Dallas Clark (58-616-11), Owen Daniels (63-768-3) and Tony Scheffler (49-549-5) all had breakout seasons in 2007. Lee and Clark were in their fifth season, while Daniels and Scheffler were in their second.
But enough about last season, you’re probably wondering who is going to break out in 2008. If I could answer that question with any degree of certainty, I wouldn’t be writing for a living; I’d be a professional fantasy football player.
But I do have a few guys in mind that fit the profile. I’ll list the top 10 in order of the likeliness that they’ll break out, from the most likely to the least likely. I’ll also include a sentence or two about some other players bubbling under the surface.
1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
2nd-year WR
For most rookie wideouts, a 48-catch, 756-yard, 4-TD season would be stellar, but there were higher expectations for the #2 overall pick in the 2007 draft. He’s a physical beast and he was playing in Mike Martz’s high-octane offense. Johnson struggled with a bad back for much of last season; it was so bad that he needed to take Vicodin to manage the pain. Martz is gone, but Johnson will benefit from a year of seasoning (and staying healthy), so he should be able to break the 1000-yard mark in 2008.
2. Jay Cutler, Broncos
3rd-year QB
Cutler actually had a breakout season in 2007 (3497 yards, 20 TD), but he struggled with weight and strength loss stemming from undiagnosed Type 1 diabetes. Now that it’s under control and his strength is back, Cutler could be primed for the rare double-breakout season. He doesn’t have an easy schedule, but it projects to be easier than last year, so he should be able to post better numbers in 2008.
3. Michael Turner, Falcons
5th-year RB
After four seasons playing in LaDainian Tomlinson’s shadow, Turner takes his gaudy 5.5 career ypc average to Atlanta. He runs hard, so he should make the most of the carries he gets. The main concern is that Atlanta is likely to be trailing most of the time, so just how many touches will he get? Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood combined for 330 carries last season, so assuming Norwood gets 100 – he got 102 last season – it would leave 230 for Turner. Assuming a 4.0-4.5 ypc, he’s looking at 920-1,035 yards. Assume 5-8 TD and a few catches, and you have RB2/RB3-type numbers.
4. Vernon Davis, 49ers
3rd-year TE
Davis is a physical specimen yet he’s been a little injury-prone during his first two seasons. Davis’ lack of production thus far in his career can be attributed, at least in part, to San Francisco’s struggling offense. Mike Martz is now in town as the team’s new OC, and while his offense isn’t known to feature the tight end, he’s never had one with Davis’ skills. Throw in the lack of talent that the 49ers have at wide receiver and Martz would be a fool not to utilize Davis as much as possible in the passing game.
5. Selvin Young, Broncos
2nd-year RB
Young had a pretty good rookie season (960 total yards, 1 TD) but now that Travis Henry is gone, he figures to play an even more prominent role in 2008. His biggest competition, rookie Ryan Torain, will miss most of the season, so Young should enter the year as Denver’s starter. The Broncos always seem to have an effective running game, so if Young can stay healthy and break the 200-carry barrier, he should post RB2/RB3 numbers with some considerable upside. Don’t overspend on draft day, however, as this is Skeletor’s team and he’s well known for pulling surprises at running back.
6. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
4th-year QB
The table is set for the young quarterback. He plays in one of the most potent offenses in the league, he has a good running game (spearheaded by Ryan Grant) to lean on, he has a nice group of receivers (Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Donald Lee) to throw to, and he will be protected by a solid offensive line. The biggest hurdle is that he’ll have to deal with the fact that he’s being asked to fill Brett Favre’s shoes. If he handles the pressure, he could post the same numbers Favre did in 2007 (4157 yards, 28 TD). If he caves, he could be in for a rough season.
7. Ted Ginn, Dolphins
2nd-year WR
Over the last seven games of 2007, Ginn went for 26-267-1. Had he performed that way for an entire 16-games season, his numbers would have been 59-610-2, which would be pretty good stats for a rookie wide receiver. He’s the Dolphins’ top option in the passing game and with Chad Pennington in town, so given the normal second-year WR jump along with improved QB play, it’s reasonable to assume a 25% increase in his numbers. That means Ginn might be in line for something like a 74-762-4 season. Not bad for a guy who can still be had once the rounds reach double-digits.
8. Zach Miller, Raiders
2nd-year TE
Miller caught at least three passes in 10 of 16 games, totaling 38-389-3. Part of maturing as a player is being able to limit or eliminate the number of bad games you play. Let’s say Miller is able to carry those 10 good games throughout an entire season. Then he would post 61-622-5, numbers that would have been good enough to be the #8 TE last season. He has played well in the preseason and JaMarcus Russell has looked to him often. Miller is an interesting option for those fantasy owners who load up on RBs, WRs and QBs in the early rounds and want to play tight end by committee.
9. Devin Hester, Bears
2nd-year WR (3rd-year player)
The Bears are really hurting at WR, so they plan to use Hester early and often. He is listed atop their depth chart, and someone has to catch passes from Rex Grossman and/or Neck Beard, so Hester is a nice option as a cheap WR4 or WR5 with some upside. He’s even more valuable in leagues that count punt or kick return TDs for the individual player. Word is that he’s been working with Michael Irvin on his route running and the other “little things” that go into being a wide receiver in the NFL. Don’t expect a miracle, but Hester is dangerous when he gets the ball in space, it’s just a matter of the Bears being able to create those opportunities early and often.
10. Matt Schaub, Texans
5th-year QB
An inability to stay healthy was the only problem with Schaub’s 2007. In the nine games where he attempted at least 18 passes, Schaub racked up 2,184 yards and nine TD. That projects to 3,882 yards and 16 TD over a full season. It’s safe to assume another four or five scores since he’s had a year as Houston’s starter, and with those numbers Schaub is looking like a top 15 QB if he can stay healthy and keep his interceptions to a minimum.
Here are several other (less-likely) breakout candidates…
2nd-year WRs/TEs
Robert Meachem, Saints
David Patten is still in the way, but Meachem’s solid preseason has him in line to be the Saints’ WR3. If Patten, Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey or Reggie Bush were to go down, Meachem stands to benefit the most in the New Orleans passing game.
Sidney Rice, Vikings
Rice showed flashes in his rookie season, scoring big fantasy points in four games. The problem was the other twelve games. Rice has great talent, but his current upside is limited by his sketchy QB play and the arrival of Bernard Berrian.
Steve Smith, Giants
Smith missed much of 2007 due to injury, but returned to post 3.4 catches for 36 yards in the team’s final five games (including four playoff games). Over the course of a 16-game season, that projects to 54 catches for 576 yards. He should get some of Jeremy Shockey’s looks too.
Jacoby Jones, Texans
Jones is a dynamic player who probably isn’t ready to usurp Kevin Walter as the Texans’ WR2. Owen Daniels is Houston’s true #2 threat, so Jones is probably relegated to #4-type targets.
Kevin Boss, Giants
Boss will be asked to pick up the receiving slack now that Jeremy Shockey as left town. He had some good games down the stretch, so there is potential for decent TE2 season.
3rd-year WRs
Derek Hagan, Dolphins
Hagan improved his numbers in his second season and now he has made enough big plays in camp to pass Earnest Wilford as the Dolphins’ WR2. With Chad Pennington in town, Hagan is suddenly on the fantasy radar in bigger leagues.
Chad Jackson, Patriots
Jackson is in his third year, which makes him an interesting option, but he hasn’t played well in the preseason, so it is unlikely that he’ll see many snaps behind Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney.
Ben Obomanu, Seahawks
Seattle is hurting at WR, so this is Obomanu’s chance to make an impact. He’s fighting with Courtney Taylor to start opposite Nate Burleson, and in Seattle’s West Coast Offense, that usually means production.
Jason Avant, Eagles
Even with Reggie Brown ailing, Avant may not see many snaps due to the impressive play of rookie speedster DeSean Jackson.
Vets with a shot
Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
Crayton is entering his fifth season and it’s probably make-it-or-break-it time for him in Dallas. Jerry Jones has made no secret that he’d like to upgrade the starting WR opposite Terrell Owens, and Crayton simply isn’t productive enough to draw any attention away from TO or Jason Witten. Still, he posted 50-697-7 last season, so if he can improve on those numbers, he’ll become a viable WR3.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Talent isn’t an issue with Jackson. He posted an average of 6-100-0.7 in the playoffs (when Antonio Gates was hurting), but the Chargers simply don’t have enough balls to go around when everyone’s healthy. Chambers and/or Gates need to miss time for Jackson to be starter-worthy, or the team has to rework its offense to feature Jackson more.
D.J. Hackett, Panthers
Hackett is rotating with Muhsin Muhammad as the Panthers’ WR2, and Moose is reportedly looking very good. It’s going to be tough for Hackett to post relevant fantasy numbers if he isn’t getting WR2-type snaps. If he ends up starting and can stay healthy, the sky is the limit.
Justin Gage, Titans
Gage can make the tough catch in traffic, so he’s a valuable asset to Vince Young and the Titans. He’s worth rostering in deep PPR leagues, and conceivably could develop into a Bobby Engram-type player.
Jabar Gaffney, Patriots
Gaffney is slated to start opposite Randy Moss, but the Pats would really like Chad Jackson to win the job. Even if he does start, with Wes Welker in the slot and Ben Watson at TE, Gaffney has to feed on table scraps.
QBs with expectations
Jason Campbell, Redskins
The third-year QB will be running another new offense with HC Jim Zorn now in town. Zorn runs a version of the West Coast Offense, so it’s up to Campbell to catch on quickly. If he does, his numbers should rise.
Matt Leinart, Cardinals
Leinart is slated to start, but he has struggled in his first two seasons, so there is no guarantee that he’ll ever catch on. He’s in a great situation throwing to two terrific WRs, but sometimes it just doesn’t happen.
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
The second-year QB is, for all intents and purposes, entering his rookie season. He has a strong arm and good physical tools, so it’s just a matter of how bad his growing pains will be. He could finish the season as a decent QB2.
