Month: June 2006 (Page 9 of 21)

Cap Situation

The Los Angeles Clippers, longtime laughingstock of the NBA, finally got over the hump this season and made it to the Western Conference semifinals, eventually losing to the Phoenix Suns in seven games. If not for a couple of brainfarts in Game 5 (Sam Cassell’s eight second call and the team letting Raja Bell get open for a three to force overtime), the Clippers would have won the series. Regardless, it was a successful season and the team is in good shape heading into the offseason as they are only on the books for $42 M next year.

Elton Brand gets the biggest bite of that pie, and is set to make $46 M over the next three years. With an EPM of .727 (#3 in the league), he’s a great deal at that price. A career 20-point scorer, Brand upped his average to 24.7 and for the sixth time in seven years, averaged 10 or more rebounds. And for the fifth consecutive year, he averaged two or more blocks per game. Brand is simply one of the best players in the league and the Clippers have him locked up for three more years. To think, the Chicago Bulls traded him away after back-to-back 20/10 seasons.

Cuttino Mobley is the team’s second-highest player, and is set to make $35 M over the next four years. I still question the team’s decision to let Bobby Simmons go and to bring in Mobley, but he played okay, averaging 14.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. His shooting percentage (43%), three point percentage (34%) and EPM (.373) leave something to be desired, but he’s not a bad deal for the price.

Corey Maggette is set to make $24 M over the next three years. The team offered up Maggette in exchange for Ron Artest during the season, but the Pacers called off the trade due to Corey’s foot injury. Maggette’s feelings got hurt and, during the playoffs, he was under the impression that he wouldn’t be back with the team. Considering that he was second in the league (to Dwayne Wade) in free throw attempts per minute (.271), the Clippers would be crazy to trade him away. The only thing holding him back from being a star is his tendency to get injured. He had the team’s second highest EPM (.526), and just needs to find a way to stay healthy.

Chris Kaman (EPM=.524) has developed into one of the league’s best centers. He averaged 11.9 points and 9.6 rebounds, while shooting 52% from the field. He has improved every year he’s been in the league and the team should extend his contract this summer. He’s worth $10 M or more per season, and the Clippers would be smart to try to lock him in soon. But there are rumors that the team owner, Donald Sterling, isn’t a big fan. It’s too bad, because Kaman is going to be a Top 5 center for the next 7-8 years.

Shaun Livingston has two more years remaining on his rookie contract at a total cost of $7.9 M. The point guard position is the team’s biggest question mark going into this offseason. Livingston turns 21 in September, so he could use another year or two of seasoning. On the other hand, he’s probably capable of running the team now.

Offseason Blueprint

To Cassell or not to Cassell: that is the question. The wily vet wants to play two more years before returning to his home world, and he’d like to retire a Clipper. However, he’s looking for a pay raise from his $6.1 M salary last year. Some say that Cassell was the catalyst for the team’s run in the playoffs and that he deserves a two-year contract. Others say that he’s on the verge of being washed up and that the team shouldn’t invest $16 M or so in a guy that is going to turn 37 at the beginning of the season. Normally, I’d agree with the latter, but I say give Sam the contract, and here’s why…

If the team thinks that Shaun Livingston is their future point guard, then they would be better served signing Cassell for two more seasons, and continue using the two guards as they did last season. Next summer, they would exercise the $4.4 M option on Livingston in 2007-08, while also working out a five-year extension that would probably save the team around $2 M per season for the length of the contract. Why? Livingston’s value would be slightly diminished around the league because – with Cassell’s presence – teams didn’t get to see him run the point for a full season.

Vladimir Radmanovic is also a free agent, but the team shouldn’t re-sign him. He’s always had an inflated opinion of his worth (just ask the folks in Seattle), so he’ll probably be looking for a long-term contract averaging $7-$8 M per year. That’s a high price to pay for a one-dimensional offensive player. Though it is unlikely that the team would want to take on another contract, the Clippers do have the cap space, so a sign-and-trade is a distinct possibility. He’s probably worth an expiring contract along with a protected first round pick.

The Clippers have a great core of young players in Brand, Kaman, Maggette and Livingston and they’d be wise to keep that group together as long as possible. They should keep Maggette and they should sign both Kaman and Livingston to five-year extensions when each player is eligible, which this summer for Kaman, and next summer for Livingston.

The team doesn’t have a first round draft pick this year, but they do have the #34 pick overall. The Clippers have enough talent that GM (of the Year) Elgin Baylor can afford to take the best available player. I’ve been really impressed by Baylor over the last several years – he’s been able to manage the team beautifully while dealing with the league’s most frugal owner.

Notes:

The Clippers’ EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Elton Brand 0.727 # 3
Corey Maggette 0.526 # 49
Chris Kaman 0.524 # 52
Sam Cassell 0.514 # 59
James Singleton 0.468 # 101
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.427 # 141
Cuttino Mobley 0.373 # 227
Zeljko Rebraca 0.373 # 228
Shaun Livingston 0.362 # 248
Quinton Ross 0.257 # 334
Daniel Ewing 0.246 # 342

Brand, Maggette and Kaman make up a monster front line efficiency-wise. Livingston’s numbers aren’t impressive, but he’s only 20 and he still needs some time to mature. In light of Mobley’s mediocre numbers, I sincerely wonder if Baylor regrets letting Bobby Simmons get away last summer for the same money.

Cap Situation

The Lakers are on the books for almost $68 M next season, and the team won’t have any salary cap flexibility until next summer, when Brian Grant’s $15.6 M contract finally comes off the books.

Kobe Bryant will make $17.7 M next season and is set to make over $106 M over the next five years. Bryant is one of the few players in the league worth that kind of money. His EPM of .680 is #10 in the league, second amongst shooting guards (Dwayne Wade), and he led the league in scoring with 35.4 ppg. He also shot 45% from the field last season after shooting less than 44% each of the last two seasons.

Lamar Odom’s contract runs three more years at the tune of $40.6 M. With an EPM of .533, he’s not a bad deal. He averaged 14.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game, but with the dearth of scoring on the Lakers’ roster, he should be scoring 17+ per game.

Despite his struggles against Phoenix in the playoffs, Smush Parker is a great deal at his salary of $0.8 M next season, averaging 11.5 points, 3.7 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. He’s entering the final year of his contract, so he’ll be looking for a big pay raise next summer. The team wasn’t expecting Parker to play so well, which is why they signed Aaron McKie to a two-year/$5 M contract last offseason. He’s got one more year before his contract ($2.7 M) is up.

The team traded away Caron Butler for Kwame Brown last offseason in the hopes that he could develop into a solid post presence. Brown is physically gifted, but he has some of the worst hands in the league. He averaged 7.4 points and 6.5 rebounds while shooting 53% from the field. He did show improvement during the season, tallying 12.8 points and 8.6 rebounds in the month of April. Brown did most of his damage while Chris Mihm was injured. Mihm is entering the last year of his contract ($4.2 M) and at an EPM of .490, he’s a pretty good deal. He averaged 10.2 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game.

Brian Cook’s EPM of .477 is encouraging, but he’s entering the final year of his contract and may not be in the team’s long term plans. Luke Walton (.387) is also in the last year of his contract ($1.3 M).

Offseason Blueprint

The team only has three players (Bryant, Odom and Brown) signed for 2007-08, so unless they’re able to pull off a major trade this summer, the team will undergo an overhaul next summer, when Grant’s expiring contract will give them much needed salary cap room.

Rumors have been flying for some time about a potential trade that would bring Kevin Garnett to the team. Garnett’s unselfishness would be a great fit with Bryant and with the right supporting cast, the team would become an instant contender in the West. If the Lakers are going to wrest Garnett from the Wolves, they need to do it soon. But do the Lakers have the pieces necessary to bring KG to L.A.?

KG makes $20 M next season, so any deal would have to include Odom’s $12.5 M salary. If the Lakers throw in Mihm, Andrew Bynum and this year’s first round draft pick (#26 overall), the Wolves might bite (although I’d hold out for two first round picks).

If the team is unable to pull off a blockbuster trade on this order, then all they can do is use their mid-level exception, draft well, and wait for next summer to make a big move. Speedy Claxton is a name that I keep mentioning in these Offseason Blueprints, and he would be a nice fit with the Lakers. But don’t be surprised if the Lakers go after Marcus Banks this summer. They tried to trade Gary Payton for him two years ago, but Payton failed the physical.

Notes:

The Lakers’ EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Kobe Bryant 0.680 # 10
Lamar Odom 0.533 # 46
Chris Mihm 0.490 # 80
Brian Cook 0.477 # 95
Laron Profit 0.388 # 203
Luke Walton 0.387 # 204
Kwame Brown 0.386 # 209
Smush Parker 0.374 # 226
Devean George 0.359 # 253
Sasha Vujacic 0.282 # 311
Jim Jackson 0.191 # 347