Cap Situation
The Nets are on the books for almost $57 M next season and almost 80% of that is dedicated to the team’s three stars: Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson.
Kidd is set to make more than $59 M over the next three years and his EPM of .576, though impressive, doesn’t warrant that kind of money. Kidd is still one of the league’s best point guards, but he’s 33 and won’t be able to play forever. Luckily for the Nets, his game is not predicated on speed, so he should still be effective (though expensive) for the remainder of his contract.
Carter has been terrific for the Nets since he was acquired in a trade with Toronto two seasons ago. He has one year remaining ($15.1 M) on his contract, but has a player option ($16.4 M) for a second year. While he’ll probably take the extra year, he could turn it down and find another playoff team to play for to try to get a ring. His EPM of .571 is a decent deal for the money, but his on court statistics (24.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists) are great, save for his less-than-stellar 43% FG shooting. Most disconcerting was his 34% 3PT shooting, down from 43% the year before.
Jefferson will make almost $66 M over the next five years, and with an EPM of .535, he’s worth every penny. He averaged 19.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists, while shooting 49% from the field. He’s not very good from long range (32%), but that’s the only hole in his game.
Nenad Krstic improved his game this season, tallying 13.5 points and 6.4 rebounds while shooting 51% from the field. The seven-foot Yugoslavian is only 22, and still has two years remaining on his rookie contract at a total cost of $3 M. At an EPM of .458, he is the definition of a bargain, with only six players producing more for the money.
Other than these four players, the Nets roster is pretty dismal. Jason Collins has the most egregious contract, which runs three more years at a total price of $18 M. Considering his EPM (.260) is horrible for a center, I’m sure the Nets are regretting his contract.
The Nets don’t have a bench to speak of and can only blame themselves. Other than Krstic, they haven’t drafted well in the last four years. Here’s a look at their last four drafts with the notable players they passed on in parenthesis:
2005 – Antoine Wright (Danny Granger)
2004 – no first round pick
2003 – Zoran Planinic (Josh Howard, Kendrick Perkins, Leandro Barbosa)
2002 – Nenad Krstic
I’m sure the presence of Richard Jefferson played into the decision to pass on Howard, but why take a small forward in 2005?
Offseason Blueprint
Unless the team wants to jettison one of the big three, the Nets will have little cap room to work with in the foreseeable future. Rumor has it that the team is quietly shopping Jefferson, hoping to capitalize on the closing championship windows of Kidd and Carter. Considering that RJ is 26 and a good value at this point, I’m not sure trading him is the best idea. If they do decide to move him, they need a big player who can score in the post. Moreover, the guy needs to be able to contribute immediately as the clock is ticking on the careers of Kidd and Carter.
Regardless, for the team to compete for a championship next season, they’ll need to land a good player at the mid-level exception and find at least one immediate contributor in the draft. Chris Wilcox would be a great fit, but it’s highly doubtful that he’ll take mid-level money. Nene and Drew Gooden probably fall into the same category. Speedy Claxton and Marcus Banks would be options at the point guard, but with Kidd and Carter playing most of the minutes, it’s doubtful that they’d see much floor time. Melvin Ely, Jared Jeffries and John Salmons are some of the more affordable players out there that would fit in well with the Nets.
New Jersey has both the #22 and #23 picks in the draft, and NBADraft.net projects them to take big man Hilton Armstrong and point guard Rajon Rondo. The key is to find guys that are most ready to contribute in the next two to three years, and then rebuild around Jefferson when Kidd and Carter are gone.
Notes:
New Jersey’s EPM by player (league average = .445)
Player EPM League Rank
Jason Kidd 0.576 # 25
Vince Carter 0.571 # 29
Richard Jefferson 0.535 # 43
Nenad Krstic 0.458 # 113
Scott Padgett 0.415 # 157
Lamond Murray 0.380 # 218
Clifford Robinson 0.326 # 286
Jeff Mcinnis 0.299 # 303
Zoran Planinic 0.272 # 321
Jason Collins 0.260 # 332
Jacque Vaughn 0.259 # 333
Bostjon Nachbar 0.245 # 343
There’s a pretty big dropoff right now after Kidd, Carter, RJ and Krstic. Had the Nets drafted better in the last three years, they’d be challenging for the Eastern Conference title.
