Month: June 2006 (Page 19 of 21)

      Offseason Blueprint: Orlando Magic

      June 6, 2006 /

      Cap Situation

      With the salaries of Anfernee Hardaway ($15.8 M) and Doug Christie ($8.2 M) coming off the books, the Orlando Magic have committed to a payroll of $51.4 M next season, giving the team precious little cap space this summer. However, Grant Hill’s $16.9 M contract expires next summer, putting the team in a great position for what could be a very good free agent class. Throw in the team’s 16-6 record over the last month and a half of the season, and there is reason for optimism in Orlando.

      The team’s best player, Dwight Howard, will be under his rookie contract for two more seasons at the total price of $10.8 M. Considering that – in just his second season – he was the league’s 24th most efficient player (EPM=.578), he is an incredible bargain.

      During the same draft, the Magic acquired point guard Jameer Nelson (.508) from the Denver Nuggets for a future first round draft pick. With the mid-season departure of Steve Francis, Nelson really shined, averaging 16 points and six assists after the All-Star break. Before the draft, there were questions about his lack of size (6’0”), but Nelson makes up for it with good quickness and terrific shooting; Nelson shot 48% from the field and 42% from long range last season.

      The team also traded for Darko Milicic, who had taken up permanent residence in the Detroit Pistons’ doghouse. After the trade, Milicic wasn’t spectacular, but he did show flashes of the talent that made him the #2 overall pick in 2003 draft (ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade). He averaged eight points, four rebounds and two blocks in just 21 minutes per game for the Magic, resulting in an encouraging EPM of .470. Milicic’s salary of $5.2 M next season allows the team to determine if he’s in their long term plans. He’s got a face up game that compliments Howard’s low post game, so the two could be effective frontcourt running mates for years to come.

      Hedo Turkoglu has developed into a nice small forward, averaging 15 points, four rebounds and three assists, resulting in a solid EPM of .444. At 27, he provided veteran leadership for the young Magic, and although he’s a capable starter, he’s probably best suited for sixth man duties.

      Offseason Blueprint

      Unless the team wants to unload Hill’s expiring contract along with a draft pick for a high-priced player (Paul Pierce would be a good fit, but Boston seems committed to building around him), Orlando’s best bet would be to stand pat this offseason and wait until next summer to make a splash in free agency, when they might be able to convince a superstar to change teams.

      The team has the #11 pick and their biggest hole is at shooting guard, where DeShawn Stevenson wasn’t terribly effective (.290) in his 32 minutes per game. NBADraft.net predicts they’ll take Bradley center Patrick O’Bryant. This pick makes sense if the team has already given up on Milicic, but I don’t think that’s the case. JJ Redick and Ronnie Brewer (along with Rodney Carney, if he slips) make more sense. Redick would bring terrific shooting that would open the court up for Howard, while Brewer is a better defender who can slash to create shots for teammates.

      The team has already capitalized on the pre-draft bad rap given to a four-year college starter (Nelson) and I think Redick might be another great fit. If they can add Pierce (or another star small forward) next summer, this would be a team to be reckoned with.

      Notes:

      Orlando’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

      Player EPM League Rank
      Dwight Howard 0.578 # 24
      Jameer Nelson 0.508 # 64
      Grant Hill 0.479 # 93
      Darko Milicic 0.470 # 100
      Hedo Turkoglu 0.444 # 126
      Carlos Arroyo 0.443 # 128
      Bo Outlaw 0.411 # 165
      Tony Battie 0.391 # 198
      Trevor Ariza 0.365 # 244
      Keyon Dooling 0.335 # 281
      Travis Diener 0.324 # 288
      Deshawn Stevenson 0.290 # 309
      Pat Garrity 0.279 # 316
      Stacey Augmon 0.249 # 337

      Howard, Nelson, Milicic and Turkoglu give the team a great young core to build around. Arroyo, who was thrown in the Milicic trade, is a top backup point guard and gives the team some punch coming off the bench.

      NBA

      Daily Dime’s Finals Analysis

      June 6, 2006 /

      On yesterday’s Daily Dime, ESPN analysts Dr. Jack Ramsay and Chris Ramsay each made an argument for a different team to win the NBA Finals. Here’s the best bit from Chris Ramsay about the Heat:

      Shaq dominates the middle. The guy is still more powerful than a locomotive and, having dropped 20-or-so pounds, even looks light on his feet. He’s figured out how to avoid offensive fouls on his post moves. He’s making the smart, patient play on the block — posting, passing, reposting, scoring. He’s getting deep position and making a much more upward offensive move to the basket instead of the inward offensive move that was getting him in trouble earlier in the playoffs. On defense, he shuts down the driveway. There will be no easy stuff at the rim for the Mavs.

      Coach Pat Riley has really pulled this team together. I’m sure Shaq has had a big influence here, too. But ever since Miami’s meltdown in Game 4 of the Bulls series, the Heat have looked like a very cohesive unit. Since then, they’ve won 10-of-13 games, and Riley has done an excellent job of building team unity. There have been no knucklehead antics, no bickering and no selfishness. The Heat look very professional and focused on winning a championship.

      I picked the Mavs in seven, so these two points are worrisome. I know Dwayne Wade is going to play pretty well, but O’Neal’s effectiveness is a bit more up in the air. Will he dominate? Will he be average? Or will he spend the majority of the series on the bench in foul trouble? His overall performance will likely decide the series. His second point is also valid. With the scent of a title so strong, the Heat are playing as a team, something I wasn’t sure could happen when Pat Riley brought Jason Williams, Antoine Walker and Gary Payton to the team. Can they keep it together for another series – one that will be more pressure-packed than the first three combined?

      Likewise, Dr. Jack Ramsay made some good points about the advantages that the Mavs hold:

      The Mavs’ trademarks are depth and quickness, two traits the Heat lack. The Mavs’ starting lineup is quicker than Miami’s, and they can bring in a number of talented, athletic players off the bench.

      For Dallas, it starts with Dirk Nowitzki, who will be a very tough cover for the Heat. Udonis Haslem will probably need help covering Nowitzki, which will open up the court for the rest of Mavericks. As Chicago showed, a quick, penetrating team can get to the rim and create foul trouble for Shaq. Well, the Mavs are even more talented than the Bulls.

      Likewise, the Heat have no natural matchup for Dallas’ secondary offensive stars, Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse. And that’s before you get to Devin Harris and Keith Van Horn, who also will be a handful against the larger, slower Heat.

      With this kind of team speed, the Mavs at times will threaten to run the Heat right off the floor.

      As I said in my preview, if the Mavs are able to consistently get the Heat into an up-and-down game, they’ll ultimately wear the Heat down. That might be the best defense for Shaq – when the big fella gets tired, he’s more foul-prone. The performance of the Mavs’ bench is also crucial. Guys like Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse and Keith Van Horn need to score well in order to counteract the advantage that the Heat has with Wade and O’Neal.

      So there you have it – four keys to the series:

      1. Shaq’s play inside
      2. Miami’s cohesion under pressure
      3. Dallas pushing the tempo
      4. The Mavs’ bench play

      It should be a good one.

      NBA, NBA Finals

      Heat/Mavs Preview

      June 5, 2006 /

      The Finals are upon us and we have a star-studded matchup with the Miami Heat squaring off against the Dallas Mavericks. There are lots of subplots to this series – Pat Riley’s controversial offseason acquisitions, Gary Payton’s quest for a ring, Mark Cuban’s courtside antics, pretty much anything Shaq says or does – this matchup has it all. Here’s my breakdown position by position:

      GUARDS

      Marquee Matchup: Dwayne Wade vs. Jason Terry

      I don’t think we’ll actually see Terry cover Wade much in the series, but Terry’s offense will be crucial in offsetting Wade’s game. Terry has been up and down in the playoffs (17.8 ppg on 43% shooting) and the Mavs will need him to be more consistent in order to keep Wade working defensively. And the Mavs need his points to take the pressure off of Dirk Nowitzki offensively.

      Dwayne Wade has been phenomenal in the playoffs, averaging 26.2 points, 6.4 assists and 5.2 rebounds per contest. His 51% shooting (62% against the Pistons) makes it critical that Dallas do everything to try to limit him. If the Mavs are able to keep him in the low 20s and force him into five or more turnovers a game, it will greatly increase their chances of victory. They will throw any number of players at him defensively (Josh Howard, Adrian Griffin, Marquis Daniels, Devin Harris, Terry and even Jerry Stackhouse) and hope than one or more of them stick.

      Advantage: Heat

      Wildcard Matchup: Gary Payton vs. Devin Harris

      Nick Van Exel was unable to handle Devin Harris’ speed and Gary Payton is going to be in the same boat. Harris has been inconsistent in these playoffs, averaging 19.3 points in a four-game stretch against the Spurs, but only managed an average of 9.4 points in the next eight games. Harris is going to need to penetrate when he’s being covered by Payton or Jason Williams because neither player has the speed to hold him.

      Meanwhile, Payton brings loads of experience to this series, but it is a far cry from the player he once was. He’s not a particularly good shooter and he doesn’t get an opportunity to post up, where he was so effective for so many years. Pat Riley would be smart to take advantage when Harris is guarding Payton by allowing him to post the inexperienced guard up. This would offset some of the problems Harris is going to present defensively for the Heat.

      Advantage: Mavs

      FORWARDS

      Marquee Matchup: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Udonis Haslem

      I know, Antoine Walker is the bigger name, but I don’t foresee Riley putting the defensively-challenged Walker anywhere near Nowitzki. The big German has averaged 28.4 points and 11.9 rebounds per game and is shooting over 49% in these playoffs. Along with Haslem, who might have some problems with Dirk’s quickness, the Heat will probably use their best defender, James Posey, on Nowitzki, hoping to recreate some of the struggles that Nowitzki had with Tracy McGrady in last year’s playoffs. It will be up to Haslem and Posey to try to limit Nowitzki as much as possible.

      Advantage: Mavs

      Wildcard Matchup: Josh Howard vs. Antoine Walker

      Josh Howard is quickly becoming one of the best young small forwards in the game. In 17 playoff games, he’s averaging 17.4 points and 7.2 rebounds per contest. He’s also shooting at a 48% clip making he and Nowitzki one of the most potent forward combos in the league. The Mavs would like to use Howard on Wade, but they need someone to cover Walker, who has averaged 13.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs, giving the Heat

      Advantage: Mavs

      CENTERS

      Marquee Matchup: Shaquille O’Neal vs. DaSagana Diop/Erick Dampier

      Shaq has been strong of late, averaging 20.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest. His conditioning will be tested by the tempo of the Mavs, who will look to push the ball at every opportunity. Diop and Dampier will try to limit O’Neal in the post, but they are going to have their hands full with the Diesel. Don’t expect either guy to do much offensively.

      Advantage: Heat

      Wildcard Matchup: Alonzo Mourning vs. ???

      Don’t be surprised to see Avery Johnson play small ball when O’Neal leaves the game, matching Nowitzki up with Mourning. This move should favor Dallas as Mourning doesn’t have the speed to hang with the Mavs on the break. If Johnson chooses to use Diop or Dampier in such situations, Mourning would hold the advantage.

      Advantage: ???

      COACHING

      Avery Johnson vs. Pat Riley

      Avery Johnson has done a terrific job since he took over the Mavs, winning Coach of the Year honors in his first full year. He has brought a feistiness to this team that was sorely lacking in the Don Nelson era. He has proven he can make adjustments to help his team win and he has NBA Finals experience from his days with the Spurs. The only knock on the guy is his lack of coaching experience.

      Pat Riley is under more pressure than Avery Johnson. Riley made a number of controversial offseason moves when he brought Antoine Walker, Jason Williams and Gary Payton to the team, but so far, he looks like a genius. Though you won’t hear him crow about it until this team wins a ring. Speaking of rings, Riley has four as a head coach, so he is quite familiar with the pressure that comes with the NBA Finals.

      Advantage: Heat

      PREDICTION

      I think this is a very evenly matched series and on a neutral court, I’d give the Heat a slight advantage. The Mavs will try to speed the game up while the Heat will try to slow things down and use Shaq inside. Whichever team does a better job of playing their game will win the series. Considering Dallas will get four games at home, I have to give them the edge – but it’s razor thin.

      My pick: Mavs in seven

      NBA, NBA Finals

      Kings hire Musselman

      June 5, 2006 /

      After parting ways with Rick Adelman, the Sacramento Kings hired Eric Musselman to lead the team.

      The Maloof brothers introduced Musselman on Saturday as the 20th coach in franchise history, but the first they’ve hired since buying the team. After interviewing just three serious candidates, the Maloofs chose the 41-year-old coach for his second NBA head coaching job following two seasons with Golden State from 2002 to 2004.

      After deciding to replace Rick Adelman this summer, the brothers went looking for a coach with a defensive background and an outgoing personality — and with nearly everything Musselman said in their two lengthy interviews, the coach fit their vision.

      I thought Rick Adelman did a great job after the team acquired Ron Artest mid-season, leading the team to a playoffs and taking the defending champs to six games. But it appears that the Maloofs never took to Adelman’s aloof (pun not intended) demeanor and wanted a coach with more personality.

      NBA

      Offseason Blueprint: Seattle Supersonics

      June 5, 2006 /

      Cap Situation

      Despite missing the playoffs with a 35-47 record, the Sonics have a pretty good team. After trading for Chris Wilcox and Earl Watson, Seattle finished 13-10 over the final two months, which would translate to a 46-36 record over an entire regular season. And the team hasn’t even had a chance to gel.

      Seattle is on the books for around $48 M next season, giving the team roughly $4 M in cap space. The team’s best player, Ray Allen, is signed for another four years at the tune of $67 M. With an EPM of .546 (39th in the league), he’s not worth quite that much dough, but he’s probably the best shooter in the league, making him a valuable asset. He averaged a career-high 25 points per game (on 45% shooting, 41% from long range), along with four rebounds and four assists.

      Rashard Lewis has another year on his contract ($9.3 M), and then has the option to extend the deal another two years for a total of $21 M. His decision will likely hinge on how well the team plays next season. His EPM of .507 (#67 in the league) makes him a good value for the price.

      Earl Watson was a nice mid-season pickup. He’s a tough, defensive-minded player with a decent EPM of .433, and is signed for four more years at a total price of $24 M. Not bad for a combo guard who averaged 12 points, five assists and three boards after the trade brought him to Seattle.

      Luke Ridnour improved his numbers to 12 points and seven assists, but still doesn’t shoot the ball all that well (42%). He’s entering the last year of his contract, and the team will soon need to decide if he is in their long term plans.

      But the more pressing question is free agent Chris Wilcox. In 29 games with the Sonics, he averaged 14 points and eight boards while shooting 59% from the field, proving that he could step out of the shadow of Elton Brand if he just got minutes. Wilcox and Watson served as catalysts for team’s solid play down the stretch, and it is crucial that the team re-sign him if they hope to build on their late run and contend for a playoff spot next season.

      Offseason Blueprint

      Like the Knicks, the Sonics are another team that would be best served running the Suns’ up-tempo offense. Ridnour is a poor man’s Steve Nash, while Allen, Lewis and Watson can all light it up from the perimeter. In this system, Wilcox would be an effective center, although he doesn’t pass the ball nearly as well as the Suns’ Boris Diaw does.

      The Sonics averaged a league-worst 105.1 points per game last season, but they proved they could simply outscore their opponents late in the season – they allowed 107 points per game during their 13-10 run over the final two months, but scored 109 per game. Ridnour, Allen and Lewis aren’t particularly good defensively, so the Sonics would be better off speeding things up the way the Suns do, taking advantage of the team’s strengths.

      The team has the #10 pick, and NBADraft.net projects them to take Shelden Williams. Williams would be a particularly good fit, especially if the Sonics are unable (or unwilling) to re-sign Chris Wilcox. Williams would bring toughness and shot blocking to a team in desperate need such things. He also runs the floor really well for a big man and would be a good fit in the post for a wide-open, up-tempo offense. Since the Sonics are loaded in the backcourt, they should focus on a frontcourt player if Williams is not available at #10. If they want to run Lewis at power forward and Wilcox at center, a small forward like Rodney Carney might make sense.

      While the Sonics ran the ball a lot last season, they’d be wise to adopt an even more up-tempo offense, taking advantage of the team’s strengths while limiting their deficiencies. Ridnour should pattern his game after Steve Nash and focus on improving his jump shot as well as practicing awkward (right foot/right hand or left foot/left hand) layups inside. Ridnour’s passing ability and ball handling would make him a nice fit for the Suns’ offense. Wilcox played great (14 points, 11 rebounds) after the trade and, at 23 years old, he’s just getting started. The team needs to make his contract extension their #1 offseason priority.

      Seattle’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

      Player EPM League Rank
      Chris Wilcox 0.555 # 36
      Ray Allen 0.546 # 39
      Rashard Lewis 0.507 # 67
      Nick Collison 0.479 # 92
      Luke Ridnour 0.451 # 119
      Robert Swift 0.447 # 124
      Earl Watson 0.433 # 137
      Danny Fortson 0.408 # 171
      Johan Petro 0.392 # 196
      Damien Wilkins 0.371 # 235
      Mikki Moore 0.354 # 258

      With seven players in the Top 150 in EPM, there is reason for excitement in Seattle. With his #36 EPM last season (#12 for power forwards), Wilcox will be a bargain for someone in free agency.

      NBA

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