It’s best to do this now, because surely our opinions will be skewed watching the playoffs.

1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots—The Pats just kept getting better as the season wore on, save for that hiccup against Cleveland. This is actually one of Bill’s best coaching jobs.

2. Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Bucs—From 3-13 to 10-6. But what might be most impressive is that Morris told everyone this team would win 10 games when he may have been the only one who believed it.

3. Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs—The AFC West winner has a home game Sunday. Did anyone pick KC to finish above third?

4. Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears—Kudos to Lovie for sending his A-team out there last Sunday, and either way it’s surely been quite a year for his Bears, especially with that defense.

5. Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles—He hasn’t hung around the city of Philadelphia for 11 years for no reason. The man just knows how to win with the talent he’s given.

6. Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis Rams—So close to grabbing that last playoff spot, but regardless, this is a team that will be reckoned with, maybe as soon as next year.

7. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons—The 13-3 Falcons are sharp heading into the big dance.

8. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers/John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens—Without Big Ben for four games, and still grabbed the 2-seed in the tough AFC. The Ravens, meanwhile, snuck up on everyone by winning 12 games too.

9. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers—His team was in every single game and could just as easily be 16-0 than 10-6. Keep an eye on these guys, they could win it all as a 6-seed.

10. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—You just can’t forget about the defending champs and that win in Atlanta a few weeks ago proved it.

Here’s some fade material for your NFL weekend…

Saints @ Seahawks, 4:30PM ET, Saturday
I don’t have the stones to predict an outright win for the Seahawks and even if I did, I wouldn’t want to be accused of going against the grain just for the sake of going against the grain. Plus, I don’t think Seattle has enough weapons to slow down Sean Payton’s offense for four quarters. That said, I love the 10.5 points here. When I first saw the spread for this matchup, I racked my brain trying to figure out if I had ever seen a road team lay that many points in a playoff game before. I couldn’t think of one because there hasn’t been. The Seahawks are the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Look, this isn’t college football. It’s hard enough for a home team to cover as a double-digit favorite in the NFL, let alone a road team to cover such a large spread. And considering the Saints won’t be able to run the ball, the Seahawks should be able to keep this game somewhat close. Seattle is still one of the toughest environments to play in – I don’t care how poorly the Seahawks are performing. This one will be much, much closer than most people think.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +10.5

Jets @ Colts, 8:00PM ET, Saturday
By now, everyone is aware of the hold Peyton Manning has on Rex Ryan. He’s 5-1 against Ryan-led defenses and has thrown for 1,513 yards and 12 touchdown passes to only two interceptions. That said, I think the Jets will control the tempo of this game from the start and leave Manning on the sidelines. The best way to beat Peyton is to limit his opportunities to beat you. You’re never going to be able to completely shut him down (even in his four-interception game against the Chargers he still tossed two touchdown passes), but allowing him to speed up the tempo of the game is forbidden. He wants to have the ball in his hands so that he can attack your defense. Therefore, the Jets have to run the ball with success and grind the tempo of this game to a screeching halt. I expect this game to be boring and if it is, the Jets win outright.
THE PICK: JETS +2.5

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Here are three quick-hit observations on the Bucs’ shocking 23-13 win over the Saints.

1. The Saints have issues heading into the playoffs.
After knocking off the Falcons less than seven nights ago, everyone was talking about how nobody wants to face the Saints in the postseason. But after the crap-show they put on Sunday in New Orleans, why should any team be worried about New Orleans? Drew Brees threw an inception in his 12th-straight game. Thomas Julius Jones fumbled at the goal line, which cost the Saints six points. For the second consecutive game, Sean Payton couldn’t get his offense moving. What’s going on here? The Saints are dangerous, period. But because of injuries and inconsistent play, they haven’t be dominant all season and it makes you wonder if they have what it takes to make another run to the Super Bowl.

2. The Bucs prove they can hang with the big boys.
Entering this game, the Bucs didn’t have a win against a team with a winning record. That didn’t mean they weren’t good or that they were lucky to still be in the playoff picture, but they lacked a signature win. Not anymore. For the second year in a row, Tampa went into New Orleans and beat the Saints. That’s remarkable considering the Saints won the Super Bowl last year. Raheem Morris has his young team believing that it can beat anyone and it proved on Sunday that it can. Josh Freeman continues to be special. Mike Williams is a great young playmaker. The defense is starting to take shape under Morris’ guidance. Regardless of whether or not they earn a trip to the postseason, things are starting to take shape in Tampa.

3. Why didn’t Payton remove his starters earlier?
I love Payton’s desire to win but he has to be smarter. The Falcons were obviously in control against Carolina up 31-3 midway through the third quarter and with nothing on the line in terms of playoff seeding for the Saints, Payton should have pulled his starters earlier. Malcolm Jenkins, Jimmy Graham, Chris Ivory and Alex Brown were all hurt in the first half. Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, Jeremy Shockey and Anthony Hargrove were all inactive before the game. The Saints should beat whichever NFC West team wins on Sunday night in the first round of the playoffs next weekend, but they can’t be shorthanded for the Divisional Round. Payton is fortunate that Brees or another starter wasn’t hurt after he exposed his starters to injury longer than he had to.

The way things are looking, you’re on this list if you still have your job or expect to at the end of the season, because lots of heads are rolling already.

1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots—The model of efficiency, and despite mediocre team stats (11th offense, 27th defense), the number that matters is 13 wins.

2. Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs—Who didn’t think the Chargers would trip the Chiefs up from behind?

3. Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears—Nobody picked the Bears to finish higher than third in the NFC North, did they? And yet they have a shot at the #1 seed in the conference.

4. Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles—So his team had a bad game against Minnesota. Big Andy stays on this list for his handling of the QB situation alone, but also for winning big games despite injuries.

5. Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Bucs—When Raheem said he wanted to win 10 games, everyone laughed, and now he is laughing at them. Well, almost.

6. Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis Rams—Even though they lead the crappy NFC West at 7-8, this is just a remarkable story. You think the Giants had wished they didn’t let this guy go?

7. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—Started slowly, but you know nobody wants to face these guys in January.

8. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons—Still sitting pretty for the #1 seed in the NFC.

9. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers/John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens—No reason to take either guy off the list.

10. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers—All those injuries and a late-season resurgence have the Pack in prime position.

Here are five quick-hit thoughts on the Saints’ 17-14 win over the Falcons on Monday Night Football.

1. Gregg Williams’ defense steps up big-time.
On a night when the offense largely sputtered, Williams’ defense stepped up and won a game for the Saints. Outside of one 27-yard run by Michael Turner in the first half, the run defense was outstanding. This was a unit that has largely been gashed on the ground, which includes giving up over 100 yards last week to Ray Rice. Jonathan Vilma and Co. didn’t do anything special Monday night to shut down a potent Falcons’ rushing attack. They simply filled gaps, won in the trenches and got pressure up field. They dared the Falcons to beat them with the pass and while Matt Ryan was able to hit a few plays to Michael Jenkins throughout the game, this contest was largely won on the strength of New Orleans’ run defense (something that has often cost the Saints games this season).

2. The Falcons offense owes its defense an apology.
The reason I mentioned the Saints’ defensive effort first was because I didn’t want to take anything away from their effort. And I still don’t. That said, what a putrid effort by Mike Mularkey’s offense. They got zero push up front in the running game, center Todd McClure cost his team seven points with one of the worst snaps you’ll ever see and Turner put the ball on the ground at the goal line when the Falcons had seized momentum. And this came on a night when Atlanta’s defense held one of the most explosive offenses in the league to just 17 points. The effort that Jonathan Babineaux and John Abraham gave up front along the defensive line was outstanding. Yes, they missed Drew Brees on a handful of plays but they largely dominated the Saints’ offense with their aggressive play. Defensive coordinator Brian Van Gorder deserves high praise for putting together a game plan that should have won the Falcons the game. How frustrating.

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Getting down to the wire, like when talking heads on NFL Network, etc. actually start pontificating about what we’ve been writing all season…..

1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots—Now we’ve seen everything. Running the score up against the Bears during a Chicago blizzard, while holding them to one special teams TD? Did this team actually lose to the Browns a month ago?

2. Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles—Won a critical division game in Dallas, and the Eagles can make a statement against the Giants Sunday. What happens may determine if Reid stays right here or drops a few notches, but he’s still brilliant for how he handled the whole QB situation this year.

3. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons—He’s running a well-oiled machine, but that doesn’t happen by accident.

4. Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis Rams—Nobody is complaining that his Rams lost to the Saints, but they my get a rematch, in St. Louis, in the playoffs.

5. Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs—Now the Chargers are breathing down his neck; but hey, he probably feels good that Josh McDaniels is watching games from his couch now.

6. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants—From the hot seat to the cold seat to the warm seat and back to the cold seat. And now the Giants have shot to take over the NFC East, while at times conjuring up visions of the 2007 team that won it all.

7. Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars—Winning the AFC South when many thought they’d finish last could turn out to be a top storyline this year. But there are still three games left, including a big one this Sunday in Indy.

8. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers—What a great season this has turned out to be for the Steelers, and look no further than the guy in charge for much of that.

9. Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Bucs—No matter how they finish, the Bucs have well exceeded expectations this season.

10. Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears—Big hiccup at home against New England, and now they get to play OUTDOORS on Monday night in Minneapolis. Yikes.

Honorable mention: Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—Did you know the Saints were 10-3? Neither did anyone else, but Mike Smith has reason to worry.

Earlier this season, Drew Brees suffered what appeared to be a knee injury in Week 3 of an overtime loss to the Falcons. He could be seen limping around and his name did show up on New Orleans’ injury report the flowing week, but he hasn’t missed a game so nobody has thought much of it.

But Kenny Wilkerson of WIST radio in New Orleans reported Thursday that Brees has been playing with a fracture and a torn meniscus in his left knee.

From Rotoworld.com:

Wilkerson is citing what he says is an “impeccable source,” and that the information is “100 thousand-trillion-million percent” accurate. He also added that the pain sometimes causes Brees to make mistakes when calling or executing plays and that it’s possible the quarterback could need microfracture surgery at some point. Brees injured the knee back in Week 3 and the Saints referred to it only as a sprain, but it sounds like they might be covering up a bigger issue. He’s been picked off more often than normal this season, but overall Brees’ fantasy production hasn’t been significantly affected by the injury.

Just a couple of hours ago, coach Sean Payton called the report “inaccurate” and “completely false.” But it’s not like Payton has been completely forthcoming about injuries in the past, so it’s hard to take him at his word.

Either way, Brees has been able to play on the left knee and while he’s been shaky at times this year, he did put together a dazzling second half performance against the Steelers last Sunday night. Maybe the worst is now behind him and either the injury is healing or the pain is manageable. He also flat out laughed at the report when asked about it today, so it appears to be nothing.

Wilkerson be looking like a fool.

One of the many things that is intriguing about football is that the game can often be decided by just one facet of the contest, whether it be a team’s running strength verses its opponents weak run defense, or an elite quarterback being able to pick apart a porous secondary.

With that in mind, here are two key factors that could determine who gets the edge in the much-ballyhooed matchup between the Vikings and Saints tonight.

Saints’ strength vs. Vikings’ weakness
Seeing as how Brees usually beats teams with his arm, many people assume that the Saints’ strength is their passing game. But their true strength is in their balance and Sean Payton’s ability to adjust his game plan to take advantage of an opponent’s weakness. Minnesota’s weakness defensively is in its secondary, where injuries have left the unit thin as a whole. Antoine Winfield can certainly hold his own on the left side, but Lito Sheppard is often inconsistent in coverage, which isn’t good considering the two safeties (Tyrell Johnson and Madieu Williams) had trouble in pass defense last year. Brees knows how to beat teams up the seam and has plenty of weapons to attack the Vikings’ soft secondary. That said, it’s vital that he has enough time to throw or else his timing will be thrown off and Minnesota will be able to keep the game close. Jared Allen and Ray Edwards are the strength of the Vikings’ defense and the biggest weakness the Saints have offensively is left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who was exposed last year by DeMarcus Ware in a loss to the Cowboys. However, if Brees has time to throw, expect some big plays tonight for New Orleans.

Vikings’ strength vs. Saints’ weakness
It was interesting to watch the Vikings transform from a balanced squad last year to a team that predominantly relied on the pass with Brett Favre under center. But seeing as how Sidney Rice is out and questions remain about Favre’s ankle, the key for Minnesota tonight will be Adrian Peterson. Everyone knows what the Saints’ offense is capable of, which is why Minnesota needs to rely on AP to chew up the clock and keep Drew Brees and Co. on the sidelines. If they can’t establish the run against a soft New Orleans’ run defense (especially at defensive tackle), then don’t expect Favre to be able to attack the Saints’ secondary without his No. 1 wideout from a season ago. Brad Childress’ overall game plan tonight should be to control the tempo on the ground, control the clock and escape New Orleans with a victory.

Game time is set for 8:30PM ET on NBC.

2010 NFL Division Previews & Predictions: AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | 2010 Question Marks Series

One of the best battles in the NFL this year will reside in the NFC South, where the defending Super Bowl champion Saints will be tested by an improved Falcons team coming off back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history.

As for the rest of the South, the Panthers are in transition now that Matt Moore is under center, but they’re still going to be competitive on weekly basis and the Bucs should be improved as well. (Although I don’t see them getting out of the division cellar anytime soon.)

Here’s how I see things shaking out in the NFC South in 2010. Be sure to check out the link entitled “2010 Question Mark” under each team’s preview, which is a breakdown of one or two potential weaknesses that could derail that squad’s hopes this season. (If the links aren’t available now for some teams, check back because they will be before the season starts.)

1. Saints

What to Like: It’s hard to start a sentence about what’s to like about the Saints without first mentioning their offense. The dynamics between Sean Payton and Drew Brees are exceptional. Payton knows exactly how to attack an opponents’ weakness and Brees knows how to execute what Payton is trying to do. While the defense was certainly a surprise last year, the relationship between Payton and Brees was the main reason the Saints lifted the Lombardi Trophy last year. Of course, it never hurts to have playmakers like Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey and Robert Meachem in the offense, either. Nor does having outstanding guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks, and tackle Jon Stinchcomb along the O-line either. Defensively, Gregg Williams was a miracle worker in his first season as defensive coordinator and was fortunate to have guys like Darren Sharper, Jonathan Vilma, Will Smith and Tracy Porter play opportunistic football. The addition of Alex Brown will also fix a major hole at the end spot opposite Smith in terms of pass rushing.
What Not to Like: This team is weak up the middle on defense. After coming off a promising rookie campaign, Sedrick Ellis struggled last year due to injuries and Remi Ayodele (who was brought in to be a run-stuffer) was highly ineffective and doesn’t offer anything in the pass-rush department. Vilma, who is an outstanding cover middle linebacker, struggled at times against the run last year and the same could be said for Scott Shanle. Former first round pick Malcolm Jenkins (who is a converted corner) takes over for Sharper at free safety and while he has the tools to be good, he’s never played the position before. Offensively, there are very few weaknesses but if I had to pick one it would be left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who struggled badly last season. Cowboys’ OLB DeMarcus Ware (who makes most tackles look bad) exposed him on national television last season and there are some concerns that he can protect Brees’ blindside.
Keep Your Eye On: Pierre Thomas
I didn’t even mention the running game in the “What to Like” section, so here it goes. One of the main reasons Payton’s offense and the Saints’ passing game is so efficient is because of the team’s ability to run the football. Now that Mike Bell is gone, Thomas should have even more opportunities than he received last season to be the rock in New Orleans’ backfield. Reggie Bush will still get his touches, but I don’t think a 1,000-plus yard season out of Thomas is out of the question – especially now that he’s fully healthy heading into Week 1 (he wasn’t at the start of 2009).
The Final Word: The Saints certainly don’t come without their weaknesses, but this is still the team to beat in the NFC South. Their offense will once again rank near the top of the league by year’s end (barring injuries, of course) and Williams proved to be an outstanding game-planner last season. The run defense is a concern, as is Bushrod at left tackle. But Brees and company are going to light up the scoreboard again this year and even if the defense takes a step back, I don’t see the Saints relinquishing the division crown quite yet.

New Orleans Saints 2009 Question Mark: Interior Defense

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Merry training camp season, everyone. It’s been a long offseason, but football is finally gearing up again and to celebrate I’m rolling out a new series on TSR entitled “2010 NFL Question Marks,” where I discuss one or two of the biggest concerns that teams have heading into the new season. Granted, some teams have more issues than others, but I’ll primarily be focusing on the biggest problem areas. Today I’ll be discussing the defending champs’ weakness up the middle on defense.

You’re not going to find too many Saints fans that will complain about last year’s Super Bowl. It was an impressive, well-deserved win for Sean Payton’s team, which could easily find itself back in the big dance again this year.

That said, there was one element of the Super Bowl that Payton and his coaching staff can’t be pleased with. And it’s something that could wind up costing the Saints this season, especially considering the run-first teams that they face in the NFC South.

Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams took the Saints’ defense last year to new heights. His aggressive, attacking style of play was a perfect fit for New Orleans’ high-powered offensive attack because it kept the pressure on the Saints’ opponent all four quarters.

But Williams’ use of a three-man front early in the Super Bowl nearly put the Saints in a bigger hole then the 10-0 deficit that they found themselves in at the end of the first quarter.

Williams used a four down linemen set only once on the team’s first two defensive drives, which resulted in the Colts putting 10 points on the scoreboard quickly. Credit Williams for making a fast adjustment, but just because the Saints wound up winning doesn’t mean that their problems at the defensive tackle position have been fixed.

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