Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 6
Posted by John Paulsen (10/14/2010 @ 7:10 pm)
Last week, I changed the format of Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em to stay within the context of my weekly positional rankings. I’ll typically discuss fringe starters that should only be in lineups under certain conditions as well as players that I have ranked higher (or lower) than the rest of the fantasy community.
My rankings often change throughout the week, so when in doubt, go with the rankings.

Joe Flacco (#8) has had his ups and downs this season, but he’s coming off three pretty solid performances and has the Pats’ 28th-ranked pass defense this week. I’m a little worried about Beligenius having a bye week to prepare, but the Pats have struggled in the secondary all season and Flacco should be able to hook up with Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason and Todd Heap with regularity…Sure, he’s coming off of suspension, but Ben Roethlisberger (#9) is definitely starter quality this week against a Browns pass defense that has yielded an average of 214 yards and 1.6 pass TDs on the season…Kyle Orton (#6) seemingly has a bad matchup with the Jets, but they’ve actually been pretty bad against the pass (235 yards, 1.8 pass TDs) this season and Darrelle Revis may miss the game with hamstring injury. Besides, good defense or bad defense, it doesn’t matter to Orton, who has thrown for at least 295 yards and one TD in every game this season…Vince Young (#12) has a date with the Jags’ 28th-ranked pass defense that gives up 2.4 pass TDs per game. Young is a good bet to throw for at least 200 yards and two scores…Desperate? Everything is lined up for likely-on-your-waiver-wire Matt Cassel (#22) this week. The Texans are last in the league against the pass and while Cassel wasn’t great against the Colts, his numbers would have looked a lot better had Dwayne Bowe held onto that long TD pass.
Read the rest of this entry »
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 5
Posted by John Paulsen (10/07/2010 @ 4:10 pm)
Since I’m releasing weekly positional rankings this season, it occurred to me that the Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em picks were a little repetitive and lack context without discussing the player-by-player rankings as well. So going forward, I’m going to use a similar format, but I’ll often be referring to my positional rankings so that readers can get a sense of how I feel that player will perform against his peers.
It’s probably easier to dive right in than try to explain what’s bouncing around in my head. As always, I will still focus on those players that you’ll only start under certain circumstances (i.e. good matchups), so if you have a stud, just go ahead and plug them in.

Three lower-end fantasy QB1s — Matt Ryan (#7), Eli Manning (#6) and Joe Flacco (#8) — all have very nice matchups this week. I have Eli the highest because the Texans have the worst pass defense in the league and that’s the game that has the best chance at turning into a shootout. I could see the ATL/CLE and BAL/DEN games devolving into lower-scoring affairs…The Jaguars have given up 304 yards and 2.3 pass TDs per game this season, which is why I have Ryan Fitzpatrick ranked at #9. Fitzy is available in a lot of leagues, so if you need a readily available sleeper at QB, look no further…I think I’m probably higher on Kyle Orton (#11) this week than most fantasy ‘experts.’ It’s true that he has a very tough matchup, but with Knowshon Moreno still sidelined, the Broncos are going to have to spread the Ravens out and throw the ball a lot. Orton faced two pretty tough pass defenses in the last two weeks (IND and TEN) and he shredded both of them. The guy is just in a groove right now…Shaun Hill (#12) has averaged 301 yards and 1.7 TDs over the past three weeks, but the Rams are playing pretty good defense at the moment. Still, Hill has done it against three solid defenses (PHI, MIN, GB), so he should have a nice week.
Read the rest of this entry »
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 4
Posted by John Paulsen (09/30/2010 @ 3:30 pm)
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.


Matt Ryan should be in starting lineups this week given his favorable matchup against the 49ers, who have yielded 2.3 passing TDs through the first three weeks…Chad Henne figures to throw quite a bit against a suspect Pats secondary that is ranked 25th in yards allowed…Mark Sanchez looks like a safe start against the Bills, who are giving up 221 passing yards and 1.7 pass TDs per game…Need someone to plug in for Tony Romo or Brett Favre during their bye? Bruce Gradkowski played pretty well last week (255 yards, TD) in a good matchup and figures to throw a lot against a Houston pass defense that has given up 368 yards per game (along with 2.0 TDs)…Vince Young should be able to post nice numbers against a Broncos pass defense that has struggled not only against Peyton Manning, but David Garrard and Matt Hasselbeck as well.
Read the rest of this entry »
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 3
Posted by John Paulsen (09/23/2010 @ 1:30 pm)
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

Mike Vick has another favorable matchup this week against the Jags, who rank 29th in the league against the pass…Carson Palmer has numerous weapons to throw to, and he’ll have a chance to utilize all of them this week against the Panthers, who have yielded 218 yards and 2.5 TDs per game through the first two weeks…Brett Favre hasn’t looked very good this season, and he may be without Percy Harvin, who is battling a hip injury and migraines. But he faces the Lions (305 yards, 2.0 TD per game), so if he can’t post good numbers this week, things are very bad in Minnesota…Need a deep sleeper? Ryan Fitzpatrick takes over as the Bills starter, and he’ll likely have to throw a ton too keep up with the Pats, who have showed quite a bit of vulnerability against the pass…I think David Garrard will have a bounce-back game against the Eagles (at home, where he plays well). Philly figures to score well, so Garrard will have to pass to keep up.
Read the rest of this entry »
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 2
Posted by John Paulsen (09/16/2010 @ 3:00 pm)
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

Michael Vick showed that he still has the speed to cause headaches and with the Lions on tap, he’s probably going to have a big day… Despite missing much of the preseason due to an ankle injury, Donovan McNabb looked pretty good against the Cowboys, all things considered. This week, he has a terrific matchup with the Texans, who gave up over 400 yards passing to Peyton Manning last week. I wouldn’t expect that kind of production from McNabb, but 250 yards and a TD or two is well within reach…Joe Flacco has a big arm, and he threw for 248 yards against the Jets’ vaunted defense last week. With a much easier matchup against the Bengals coming up, he should have a very nice day…Need a sleeper? Jason Campbell threw for 180 yards and a TD against the Titans last week and even ran for 35 yards. With the Rams coming to town, he’s in line for a solid week…Need another sleeper? How about Josh Freeman, who faces a Panthers defense that struggled mightily against Eli Manning and the Giants last week?
Read the rest of this entry »
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 1
Posted by John Paulsen (09/08/2010 @ 12:45 pm)
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

Phillip Rivers is a great start against a Chiefs pass defense that was really sketchy last season…I get the sense that Thursday’s matchup between the Vikings and Saints is going to be a high scoring affair, so that bodes well for Brett Favre, who will probably be in a position to pass a lot as Minny tries to keep pace with New Orleans…Looking for a few sleepers? Kyle Orton (@ JAX), Josh Freeman (vs. CLE), Alex Smith (@ SEA) and David Garrard (vs. DEN) all have good matchups this week.
Ronnie Brown should find plenty of running lanes against the Bills, who were 30th in the league against the rush last season…Don’t be surprised if Jerome Harrison has a big week against a Bucs’ rush defense that was last in the league in 2009. The Browns have a good offensive line and Harrison’s major competition for touches (Montario Hardesty) is out for the season…Matt Forte couldn’t ask for a better matchup than the Lions this week, though only time will tell whether or not Mike Martz is willing to give him enough touches to be a full-time fantasy starter…Carnell Williams should be able to take advantage of the Browns’ rush defense, which finished 28th last season.
Malcom Floyd steps into the Chargers’ WR1 role and has a great matchup with the Chiefs to begin the season…Pierre Garcon is a sneaky good start against a rather mediorce Texans pass defense…Mike Williams (TB) should have his coming out party against the Browns, who were 29th against the pass last season…Johnny Knox and Devin Hester face the Lions, so assuming Jay Cutler can stay upright long enough to throw the ball, they should be able to post nice numbers…For a couple of sleepers, look no further than Louis Murphy (@ TEN) and Laurent Robinson (vs. ARI). Both players have been thrust into WR1 roles and they have favorable matchups this week.

Three solid starters have tough matchups this week: Joe Flacco (@ NYJ), Matt Ryan (@ PIT) and Eli Manning (vs. CAR). They’re still startable, but don’t expect big numbers in Week 1…I’d still run Matt Schaub out there, but Indy had a good pass defense last season, so Schaub’s numbers may be depressed a bit…Don’t touch Mark Sanchez (vs. BAL), Matt Moore (@ NYG) or Jake Delhomme (@ TBB) this week.
There are a number of good running backs with bad matchups this week, so lower those expectations: Ray Rice (@ NYJ), Deangelo Williams (@ NYG), Pierre Thomas (vs. MIN), Ryan Grant (@ PH), Shonn Greene (vs. BAL) and Michael Turner (@ PIT)…Marion Barber has a tough matchup against the Redskins, who only allowed 10 rush TDs in 2009…In that same game, Clinton Portis faces a Cowboys defense that was 4th in the league against the rush and only allowed seven rush TDs last season.
I’d stay away from Mohammed Massaquoi, as the Bucs’ pass defense wasn’t terrible last season…Carolina excelled against the pass last season, so don’t expect Hakeem Nicks or Steve Smith 2.0 to go off in Week 1 (though both players are both startable)…Steer clear of all Seattle (vs. SF) and Tennessee (vs. OAK) receivers this week until we know more about who’s going to get the most targets. Both teams have bad matchups this week.
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 17
Posted by John Paulsen (01/02/2010 @ 2:35 pm)
Most fantasy football leagues held their championship games last week, but there are still a few holdout leagues that schedule their title games for Week 17. To that end, here are a few players that I like, and a few that I don’t.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.


The Steelers need a win, and Ben Roethlisberger has a great matchup against the Dolphins’ 23rd-ranked pass defense (allowing 236 yards, 1.3 TD per game)…The Giants have struggled to stop the pass of late and phoned it in against the Panthers last week, so Brett Favre should have a good game, especially since the Vikings need to win…The Browns have a sketchy pass defense, so David Garrard should have a nice line in a game that the Jags have to win to have a shot at the postseason…Desperate? Josh Freeman has a nice matchup against the Falcons, who are ranked 28th against the pass. Matt Ryan and Co. looked pretty good in Week 16, so the Bucs will likely have to throw to stay in the game.
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 17, 2009 NFL Week 17, Fantasy Football, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 17, fantasy football week 17 busts, fantasy football week 17 sleepers, fantasy football week 17 start sit, Headlines, Love 'Em & Leave 'Em
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 16
Posted by John Paulsen (12/23/2009 @ 6:19 pm)
It’s championship week in most fantasy football leagues, so it’s not a good time to get cute. There’s a saying — dance with the guy that brought you. In other words, don’t bench a stud unless you have to.
On the subject of the Colts…
At this point, only Indianapolis appears to be ready to rest its players, so I’d expect Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon to play a half of football. Moreover, the Jets are a pretty bad matchup, so it’s (relatively) safe to bench those Colts. It’s unfortunate that fantasy owners are forced to bench these players in such a crucial week, but this is a great argument for a fantasy league to end its playoffs in Week 15.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.


Philip Rivers (TEN) and Tom Brady (JAX) are good fantasy QBs with good matchups, so start ‘em..Matt Schaub has a very nice matchup against a Dolphins defense that is 23rd in the league against the pass…In a pinch? Alex Smith has the Lions this week. Detroit has given up an average of 268 yards and 2.1 TD through the air this season…David Garrard has a pretty good matchup with a Patriots defense that has really struggled to stop the pass of late.
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 16, 2009 NFL Week 16, Fantasy Football, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 16, fantasy football week 16 busts, fantasy football week 16 sleepers, fantasy football week 16 start sit, Headlines, Love 'Em & Leave 'Em
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 15
Posted by John Paulsen (12/17/2009 @ 8:00 am)
Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.


Kurt Warner really struggled against the 49ers on Monday night, but this week he faces the Lions, which should cure whatever ails him…Donovan McNabb has a good matchup with a San Francisco pass defense that has struggled quite a bit this season. The 49ers looked pretty good at home against the Cards, but they have to make the cross country flight to Philly this week…Jason Campbell is hot — seven TD over his last three games — and the Giants defense has given up 1.8 pass TD per game this season…If Vince Young is a go, he should be able to post good fantasy numbers against a young Miami secondary…Mark Sanchez should be back this week and will likely have a very nice game against the Falcons’ 30th-ranked pass defense…Desperate? Brady Quinn is actually showing some signs of decency (7 TD and zero INT in his last four games) and has a great matchup this week against the Chiefs. Keep in mind that he threw the 7 TD in two games and had pitiful performances against the Steelers and Bengals.
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 15, 2009 NFL Week 15, Fantasy Football, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 15, fantasy football week 15 busts, fantasy football week 15 sleepers, Headlines, Love 'Em & Leave 'Em
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 14
Posted by John Paulsen (12/10/2009 @ 7:00 am)
Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.


Ben Roethlisberger should be in lineups this week given his opposition, the Browns’ 26th-ranked pass defense…Kurt Warner is back and playing well, and with a good matchup against the 49ers, he should post good numbers this week…If Matt Schaub is able to play, he’s a nice start against the Seahawks, who have the league’s 25th-ranked pass defense…David Garrard faces a Dolphins defense that is ranked 24th against the pass. The Jaguar receivers should be able to take advantage of a young Miami secondary…Alex Smith has been solid this season, and his matchup with the Cardinals is favorable. The 49ers are likely to have to throw quite a bit to stay in the game, so Smith should finish with two or three TD…Joe Flacco isn’t playing all that well of late, but with the Lions coming to down, that should change. Detroit has yielded 275 yards and 2.3 TD per game this season…Desperate? Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn’t good against the Jets’ stingy pass defense last week, but the Chiefs’ secondary isn’t nearly as good.

Ray Rice didn’t have a great week against the Packers, but he should bounce back in a big way against the Lions…strong>Rashard Mendenhall has been running the ball well and expected to start Thursday night despite an injury. The Browns are ranked 29th against the run…Jamal Charles is looking like a very nice start against Buffalo’s 32nd-ranked rush defense. The Bills have given up 162 yards and 1.3 rush TD on the ground this season…The Buffalo line has struggled to run block this year, but Fred Jackson should be able to gain some yards on the ground and in the passing game against a suspect Chiefs defense…Desperate? Pick up Quinton Ganther, who was recently promoted to RB1 in Washington. He has a nice matchup with a pretty porous Oakland run defense…Really desperate? Consider Sammy Morris, who is back healthy and might be out on the waiver wire. He has a good chance of finding the endzone against the Panthers’ 26th-ranked rush defense.

The Arizona passing attack has a nice matchup with the 49ers, so Anquan Boldin should definitely be in starting lineups and Steve Breaston is worth a look in deeper leagues…Derrick Mason had a tough outing against the Packers, but with the Lions coming to town, things are looking up…He didn’t have a very good game against the Bucs, but Steve Smith 1.0 hooked up with Matt Moore on a long bomb in the second half. He has another nice matchup with the Pats, who have been brutal against the pass of late…Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan have a nice matchup agianst the Cards, who have given up 257 yards and 1.5 pass TD per game this season…They are no sure bet, but Terrell Owens and Lee Evans should be able to take advantage of a week Kansas City pass defense that is ranked 28th in the league…Davone Bess is coming off a 10-117-1 performance and has caught 29 passes over the last five weeks. This week, he faces the 23rd-ranked Jaguar pass defense. He’s worth a look in PPR leagues.


The Falcons are hopeful that Matt Ryan can start this week, but he is coming off of an injury and has a bad matchup with a Saints defense that has only given up 1.0 pass TD per game this season…The Bills are pretty stingy against the pass (4th in the league, 10 pass TD allowed), so Matt Cassel might seem like a good start this week, but he’s not…Vince Young plays the Rams, who are better than advertised against the pass…Kyle Orton should be avoided. Indy is mediocre against the pass in terms of yards, but they’ve only allowed 11 pass TD all season.

The Bears are talking about reducing Matt Forte‘s workload, so that, combined with a bad matchup against the Packers this week, makes him a sketchy play…He’s still startable in many formats, but the Vikings have the 3rd-ranked rush defense, so Cedric Benson is unlikely to put up big numbers this week…Kevin Smith has had a good season, and I’d still start him in PPR leagues, but he’s a bad start in standard leagues given his tough matchup with the Ravens’ 6th-ranked rush defense…Steer clear of Julius Jones this week. The Texans’ rush defense has been a lot better of late and there’s a chance that Justin Forsett will eat into his touches as his quads get better.

Antonio Bryant has played pretty well of late, but the Jets have he #1 pass defense in the league, so it’s doubtful that he’s going to have a big day…The Bills rush defense stinks, but their pass defense is pretty good (4th-ranked), so don’t expect a big bounce back game this week for Chris Chambers…The Green Bay defense has been playing great lately, so I wouldn’t count on Devin Hester, Johnny Knox or Earl Bennett for big fantasy lines this week.
Photo from fOTOGLIF
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 14, 2009 NFL Week 14, Fantasy Football, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 14, fantasy football week 14 busts, fantasy football week 14 sleepers, Headlines, Love 'Em & Leave 'Em
|