The NBA Draft Lottery is tonight, and as always, there is a lot riding on a few ping pong balls. Here is a list of the lottery teams (with their chances of winning the top pick in parenthesis) along with some discussion of their possible strategy if they do win the #1 pick.

ALMOST A SURE THING

Nets (25%)
The Wall-to-New Jersey/Brooklyn rumors have been strong all season, thanks to the Nets’ woeful record and Devin Harris’s struggles. Harris is now viewed as expendable, which means Wall would be a Net if the balls bounce their way tonight.

Wizards (10.3%)
Winning the right to draft Wall would allow the Wizards to cut ties with Gilbert Arenas and the franchise’s gun-toting past. It might also convince a free agent or two to sign for the chance to play with Wall.

76ers (5.3%)
Jrue Holiday is nice, but he’s not going to dissuade the Sixers from drafting a franchise-savior like Wall.

Pistons (5.2%)
See 76ers above but substitute “Rodney Stuckey” for “Jrue Holiday.” That is all.

Pacers (1.1%)
Indiana arguably needs a point guard more than any other team in the lottery, but with just a 1.1% chance of winning, they’re hoping against hope.

Grizzlies (0.7%)
Memphis would be buzzing with the arrival of Wall, who would seemingly be a great fit with O.J. Mayo, a re-signed Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Memphis would likely make the playoffs next season.

Raptors (0.6%)
The chances are very slim, but winning the right to draft Wall would offset the likely loss of Chris Bosh this summer. Neither Jarrett Jack nor Jose Calderon would be enough to convince the Raptors to draft Evan Turner.

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Per Sactown Royalty…

Tyreke Evans will be named the NBA’s 2009-10 Rookie of the Year later this week, Sactown Royalty has learned.

The announcement is expected Thursday or Friday. The Kings nor the NBA have announced Evans’s victory, and the team has not yet alerted the media of a press conference later this week.

In my prediction post, I said the following:

I think this is a two-man race between Evans and Jennings. Evans’ numbers are better than Curry’s and his team is a little better, so if we’re going to go with a good player on a bad team, it should be Evans.

As for Jennings, his case depends how much importance we place on a team’s record and how responsible the player is for that record. It’s funny — a good record is crucial in winning the league MVP, but for ROY, it doesn’t seem to matter all that much. Why is that?

In the end, I think Evans will win Rookie of the Year. Given the history of the award, if a player clearly has the superior numbers, winning just doesn’t matter. That’s the case here.

Evans averaged 20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists to become the first rookie since LeBron James to average 20-5-5 in his rookie season. (Oscar Robertson and Michael Jordan are the only other players to accomplish this feat.)

Both Evans and Curry posted eye-popping numbers, but did any rookie have a bigger impact on the 2009-10 NBA season than Brandon Jennings? Even though his FG% fell off a cliff, he still posted pretty good numbers, and guided the upstart Bucks to the #6 playoff spot in the East.

Based on the criteria that picked previous award winners, Evans is very deserving. But when we look back on this season’s rookie class, I think we’ll remember Jennings’ leadership, Evans’ 20-5-5, Curry’s stretch run and Blake Griffin’s knee injury, in that order.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

It’s that time of year again. Let’s try to figure out who will win this year’s Rookie of the Year…

Brandon Jennings jumped out in the ROY race with a 22-4-6 average in October and November, while shooting 43% from the field and 50% from three-point land. This included an epic 55-point outing against the Golden State Warriors in which Jennings hit 21 of 34 shots, including 7-for-8 from behind the arc. Since then, he is averaging 14-3-6 and is shooting just 35% from the field and 36% from 3PT. He has struggled with scoring from inside the arc, but he leads all rookies in assists and has a pretty nice assist-to-turnover ratio — 2.41, but he has posted a 2.72 ratio since the start of December. Maybe most importantly, the Bucks are 41-32 and are in the #5 spot in the East.

Tyreke Evans overtook Jennings with a 22-5-5 December and hasn’t looked back. On the season, he is averaging 20-5-6, and is shooting 46% from the field. He’s on the verge of joining LeBron James, Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson as the only players to average 20-5-5 in their rookie seasons. However, the Kings have the 6th-worst record in the league and have been out of the playoff hunt for some time. This is both good and bad for Evans’ stats. On one hand, the Kings are so bad that he has to be the clear focal point of the offense — unlike Jennings, he doesn’t have to get the ball to Andrew Bogut or John Salmons — but the fact that the Kings are so bad means that defenses can focus on stopping him.

And then there’s Stephen Curry, whom NBA.com’s Drew Packham lists first in his rookie rankings. Since the start of December, he has averaged 18-5-6, while shooting 47% from the field and 44% from long range. And he keeps getting better. In February and March, he averaged 21-5-7. But at 21-52, the Warriors are even worse than the Kings. In fact, Golden State is tied for second third in fewest wins this season.

One thing that pure averages don’t account for is a team’s pace (i.e. the average # of possessions a team has during the course of a game). Is it fair to compare Jennings’ numbers to Curry’s when the Bucks are #18 in overall pace and the Warriors are #1? Using the league average of 95.15 possessions, here is a look at the pace-adjusted numbers for each player, along with John Hollinger’s PER:

All due respect to Mr. Packham, I think this is a two-man race between Evans and Jennings. Evans’ numbers are better than Curry’s and his team is a little better, so if we’re going to go with a good player on a bad team, it should be Evans.

As for Jennings, his case depends how much importance we place on a team’s record and how responsible the player is for that record. It’s funny — a good record is crucial in winning the league MVP, but for ROY, it doesn’t seem to matter all that much. Why is that?

In the end, I think Evans will win Rookie of the Year. Given the history of the award, if a player clearly has the superior numbers, winning just doesn’t matter. That’s the case here.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

For most of the collegiate season, it looked like John Wall was the only player deserving of the #1 pick — like a franchise would be crazy not to take him if it won the lottery. But as Evan Turner has come on — 20-9-6 with 52% shooting — and is pushing Wall for the Naismith award, it has become a reasonable possibility that a team that already has a good point guard might pass on Wall and take Turner (who projects to play off guard or small forward in the NBA) instead.

David Thorpe lists the Timberwolves (Jonny Flynn, Ricky Rubio), Warriors (Monta Elllis, Stephen Curry), Kings (Tyreke Evans), Sixers (Jrue Holiday), Jazz (Deron Williams) and the Bulls (Derrick Rose) as teams with lottery picks that could potentially go with Turner over Wall.

Wall is two years younger and doesn’t have Turner’s injury history. (Turner broke his back earlier in the season. Yeah. Broke his back.) The two shoot about the same from three-point range and are both good playmakers. To me, they both resemble Dwyane Wade, though Turner is longer and Wall is more athletic (of the two).

This is no indictment of Wall. Turner has played himself into this position with a brilliant season. Wall is two years younger so he has more upside, but they both project to be great NBA players, so if a franchise is already sitting on a very good point guard, it makes some sense to go with Turner.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

The promising season of Anthony Randolph is effectively over, per the San Francisco Chronicle.

He is projected to miss about two months with multiple left ankle injuries, the team announced before Monday’s game against Cleveland.

An MRI exam revealed Randolph has two torn ligaments on the outside of the ankle and an avulsion fracture where an inside ligament pulled away from the bone. He’ll be in a protective boot for three weeks before starting rehabilitation, which usually takes at least four weeks for similar injuries.

It sure looked like Randolph was ready for a breakout season after torching the summer league. He averaged 11.6 points and 6.5 rebounds, but played just 23 minutes per game for a bad team. He even ended up being the subject of a lot of trade talk before the injury. The Warriors know that he has a ton of upside, but they don’t seem to want to keep him. It’s unlikely now that teams will try to acquire him, though since he’s still on his rookie contract, there isn’t much downside. Generally, when a player gets injured, the trade talk stops until he comes back and proves that he can still play. That will probably be the case with Randolph as well.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

So much for Jackson’s wish to be traded to a contender. He’s headed to Charlotte as part of a four-player trade.

In a deal that NBA front-office sources said came together quickly Sunday night and received the needed league approval Monday morning, Golden State sent Jackson and guard Acie Law to the Bobcats in exchange for veteran swingmen Raja Bell and Vladimir Radmanovic.

Let’s see — Jackson has three years left at the tune of $28 million. Radmanovic has one year left for $6.9 million and the other two players (Bell and Law) are free agents after this season. So the Warriors are going to save about $21 million with this move, assuming they don’t re-sign either of the incoming players.

Radmanovic isn’t a bad fit for the Warriors in that he can shoot from long range and can’t play any defense. Bell is known as a hard-nosed defender but his best years are behind him.

Jackson has a reputation for being something of a malcontent, and he asked to be traded to a contender (only he goes to a bottom-feeding Charlotte franchise). If you’re running the Bobcats, why do you make this deal? What are the odds that this works out?

The Bobcats do get a versatile scorer. Charlotte is last in the league in scoring (82.4 ppg) and shooting percentage (39.4%), so he’ll help in the short term, but I don’t see how this improves the franchise in the long term. Jackson turns 32 this season, so he’ll be 35 when his contract expires, and his deal will drastically reduce the team’s cap space in the summers of 2011 and 2012.

From Chris Broussard on TrueHoop…

I’m told that Golden State is mulling several offers, and one person told me he expects something to happen within the next few days. I don’t know the particulars of any supposed offers, but I’m told Cleveland, Denver, San Antonio, New Orleans and the Los Angeles Clippers are all interested in Jackson.

Best fit? New Orleans. The Hornets are really hurting on the wing and need players who can knock down shots. But they don’t have the expiring contract(s) that would allow Golden State to get out from underneath the four years remaining on Jackson’s deal. They’d need to give up a prospect (Julian Wright?) or a draft pick to get the Warriors to bite.

“I’m not a fan of Kobe. I’m not somebody who looks up to him. I’m a grown man myself. So when I go out there and play the game, I play the game. I feel like I’m just as good as him. I might not get the publicity or notoriety he gets, but I feel like I can play with anybody in the NBA any given night. I think everybody should feel like that. Everybody should be a competitor and I don’t back down from anybody.”

– Stephen Jackson, via Fanhouse