The Top 10 NBA Free Agents of 2010
Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.
The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.
Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?
1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)
2. Dwyane Wade, SG (28)
Wade is two years older than James, but is just as effective when healthy. In fact, staying healthy is his biggest problem. In six-plus seasons, he has missed almost 20% of his team’s games. He isn’t a great three-point shooter, but he’s a terrific all-around scorer and gets to the line as well as anyone in the NBA. Like LeBron, he’ll be seeking a max contract, but since he’s older and somewhat injury-prone, he won’t be as good of a value as his counterpart. I wouldn’t rule out a LeBron-Wade combo in New York, but it’s more likely that the Knicks will want to pair LeBron with a big man, like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. There’s a good chance that Wade will stay put in Miami since it’s a very desirable place to play and the Heat have enough cap space to sign someone like Bosh or Stoudemire in addition to re-signing their superstar. After all, there are worse things in life than being a multi-millionaire living in South Beach.
Note: PO
3. Chris Bosh, FC (26)
Simply stated – Chris Bosh is one of the best young big men in the NBA. He has averaged at least 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds over the last four seasons. This year, the versatile power forward has stepped up his game and is averaging 28.9 points and 11.5 rebounds. Everyone in New York is talking about a possible LeBron-Bosh combo, and this would be an ideal situation, but with a projected drop in the salary cap, the Knicks will need to move a player or two by the trade deadline to make it work. Bosh is no sure thing to leave Toronto – the franchise proved it was willing to spend when it signed Hedo Turkoglu to give Bosh some help. With the emergence of Andrea Bargnani and the steady play of Jose Calderon, the Raptors have something going.
Note: PO
4. Amare Stoudemire, FC (28)
Stoudemire is a little bigger and stronger than Bosh, but their numbers are almost identical. Stoudemire is two years older, far more injury-prone, and isn’t as good of a defender, but he boasts a much higher FG%. He’s at his best when he catches a pass from Steve Nash off of the duo’s patented pick-and-roll and attacks the rim. If the Knicks are able to woo LeBron but are unable for some reason to get Bosh, Stoudemire would be the next best choice. He’s obviously a great fit in Mike D’Antoni’s system – he averaged 26 points and 9 rebounds in the 2004-05 season – so it’s a logical pairing.
Note: Early Termination Option (ETO)
5. Joe Johnson, SG (29)
The Hawks raised some eyebrows when they traded future Most Improved Player Boris Diaw and two first round draft picks to the Suns for Joe Johnson. Once Diaw won the MIP, it looked like the Suns got the better end of the deal. But with Johnson turning into a 23-point, five-assist, four-rebound kind of player, it sure looks like the Hawks were the ones to benefit most from the trade. It’s likely that Atlanta will do everything possible to retain him, as he’s the biggest reason the team made its return to the playoffs last season. Given his age, scoring ability, versatility and three-point accuracy (39%), he will be highly valued in the summer of 2010.
6. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (32)
Nowitzki’s reputation has taken a bit of a dip over the last couple of seasons, but he’s still averaging 26-and-9 this year. The Mavs are committed to him, so it’s going to be tough for Dirk to turn down the $21.5 million if the two sides are unable to reach an agreement on an extension by next summer. I don’t see Dirk leaving Dallas anytime soon.
Note: ETO
7. Carlos Boozer, PF (27)
Boozer elected to play out the final year of his contract because he found out last summer that his market value didn’t meet his expectations. Instead, he’s focused on having a good season in Utah and proving to everyone that he can stay healthy. Boozer is a great fit as a sidekick, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he landed in Miami, New York or New Jersey/Brooklyn. In fact, the Nets are a trade away from having enough cap space to sign both LeBron/Wade and Boozer, assuming he doesn’t expect a max deal. It’s highly unlikely that he stays in Utah since the Jazz just made a big commitment to Paul Millsap, who has a very similar skill set.
8. Paul Pierce, SG (33)
If Pierce were younger in the summer of 2010, he‘d be higher on this list. Realistically, he’s unlikely to be available because the last year of his deal is worth $21.5 million, and he’s not going to find that kind of money elsewhere. He’ll probably stick in Boston since Kevin Garnett is signed through 2011-12.
Note: PO
9. Manu Ginobili, SG (32)
Ginobili has a reputation for being injury-prone; he has missed almost 17% of his team’s regular season games in seven-plus years. He’s a good three-point shooter (career 38%), and a crafty scorer (14.8 ppg) and passer (3.6 apg). The Spurs have done a great job over the years of re-signing their stars, but if Ginobili becomes available in the summer of 2010, more than a few teams will be interested in signing him to a three- or four-year contract. He always seems to come up big in crunch time.
10. David Lee, PF (27)
Lee was a restricted free agent this past summer and ended up signing a one-year deal to stay with the Knicks. His camp was looking for a deal averaging $8-$10 million per season, but quickly found that the market wasn’t willing to bear that. He led the league in double-doubles in the 2008-09 season, but given the frenetic pace at which the Knicks play, his numbers are a little inflated. Still, he’ll be a great complementary forward wherever he lands.
Honorable Mention:
Yao Ming, C (29)
Yao is a 22/10 guy, but his biggest problem is staying healthy. After playing in all but two games of his first three seasons, Yao has missed more than a third of his team’s games. Yao’s big frame isn’t built for the long haul. This makes him a dicey investment for a team trying to win a championship. Yao would have to terminate a contract that would pay him $17.7 million for the 2010-11 season. It’s doubtful that he’ll find that kind of money on the open market coming off a season-long injury.
Tracy McGrady, SG (31)
T-Mac is one of the league’s most talented and versatile players, but he has two serious issues: staying healthy and an apparent inability to win in the postseason. In the three seasons spanning from 2005-2008, he has missed a quarter of the Rockets’ games. Given his age and health concerns, If he continues to struggle with his knees and back, he could be passed (value-wise) by Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd or Josh Howard.
Shaquille O’Neal, C (38)
Will anyone want to take on a 38-year-old O’Neal? What kind of contract is he willing to play for? If he can help the Cavs win a title, it will boost his stock considerably.
Richard Jefferson, SF (30)
Jefferson would have to opt-out of the final year of his deal ($15.0 million) to become a free agent. It’s doubtful that he’s going to find that kind of money on the open market.
Michael Redd, SG (30)
Redd has a ETO, and is unikely to exercise it due to the value of the final year of his contract ($18.3 million).
Josh Howard, SF (30)
The Mavs have a team option for the 2010-11 season, and given Howard’s off-the-court antics, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be a Maverick for long. If he’s a good citizen, however, he’s sure to stay in Dallas.
Other notables: T.J. Ford, PG (27); Tyson Chandler, C (28); Ray Allen, SG (34); Marcus Camby, C (36); Raymond Felton, PG (26); John Salmons, GF (30); Allen Iverson, G (35); Nate Robinson, G (26); Al Harrington, F (30) and Travis Outlaw, SF (25)
Significant restricted free agents: Rudy Gay, Tyrus Thomas, Ronnie Brewer, Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry and Josh Childress.
Photos from fOTOGLIF
Follow the Scores Report editors on Twitter @TheScoresReport. You can also follow TSR editor Gerardo Orlando @clevelandteams and @bullzeyedotcom, and you can follow TSR editor Anthony Stalter @AnthonyStalter.
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Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA
Tags: Amare Stoudemire, Amare Stoudemire free agent, Chris Bosh, Chris Bosh free agent, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, Dwyane Wade free agent, Headlines, Joe Johnson, Joe Johnson free agent, LeBron 2010, LeBron James, LeBron Knicks, LeBron Nets, Manu Ginobili, NBA 2010 free agency, NBA free agency, Paul Pierce, Summer of 2010, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming
What are the chances of detroit getting either bosh or Amare?? i think lebron is set for NY and wade will most likely stay put in miami.
John, this is an awesome top ten list, I think this is one of the best free agent years ever. Imagine Lebron and any of the other top ten on the same team. Who’s the best second best player on the cavs, Ilgauskus? Hughes? Gooden?
You can post this to our site http://www.toptentopten.com/ and then link back to your site. We are looking for content and in return our users will track back to your site. The coolest feature is you can let other people vote on the rankings of your list.
Andrew – Right now, I think the chances are pretty high that Bosh or Amare will sign with the Knicks after LeBron signs. This could change obviously if the Cavs are able to retain him, but that’s where I’d put my money right now.
So that leaves the other on the free agent market. There will be a number of teams going after the “other” big man, Detroit being one of them.
If the Heat are successful in poaching Carlos Boozer away from Utah, I think Wade will re-sign with the Heat. He’ll recognize that the team has a nice core and it’s not a bad deal to live and play in South Beach.
The summer of 2010 will be the joy of any NBA fan.
What do you think are the chances that Lebron doesnt sign with the knicks?
And is there any chance at all that he goes to any team other than the knincks or cavs?
He could very well re-sign with the Cavs. If they make a serious run this season or next he might stay.
The Knicks are my pick to sign him right now. But six months ago the Nets were the favorite (in my mind). The move to Brooklyn has seemingly stalled, and the Knicks made some big moves to clear cap space to sign LeBron and another superstar.
I doubt that he’d leave Cleveland to play in Detroit or Portland or some other city. I think he wants to play in the spotlight, and that probably means New York or Los Angeles. The prospect of resurrecting a Knicks franchise from the dead might be pretty appealing if things aren’t going very well (i.e. borderline perfect) in Cleveland.
LeBron will want tough, hard-workers around him so that he can focus on what he does best: everything. How about LeBron joining D-Rose on the Bulls? They have enough players to support him in his chase for the ‘ship. And, at that point (2010), Chicago may be the best option to win a championship…
Chicago is a possibility. With Hinrich ($9 M), Deng ($11.4 M), Nocioni ($6.9 M) and Rose ($5.5 M) they are currently committed to about $33 M in 2010, which is plenty of room to sign LeBron — that’s a pretty nice core, though LeBron, Deng and Nocioni all play the same position. The Bulls need to be careful though, they need about $15 M to sign someone to a max deal for the first year, so they can’t commit to more than a total of $10-$11 M for all the other players (Noah, Thomas, Sefolosha, draft picks, etc) to have room for a max contract.
what about Detroit? who do u think Detroit will pick up out of these awesome players? I think Chris Bosh would go to Detroit. What do u think? Because Pistons has a cap space this year of 39 Mil. thats alot and enough to pick up 2 stars.
d wade is better than lebron and also lebron extended his contract
LeBron didn’t extend his contract, and he probably won’t.
EVERYONE MOSTLY JOHN PAULSEN LISTEN. THE KNICKS ARE GETTING WADE AND LEBRON IS STAYING ON THE CAVS.OK!!!!!
ma man paul lebron sucks and he’s not coming 2 the knicks d wade and chris bosh are coming
Bob – Most free agents stay put. I think LeBron will probably stay, but there’s a chance he’ll leave. D-Wade will probably stay, but there’s a chance he’ll leave. I think Joe Johnson will stay in Atlanta, but Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire will probably change teams before the start of the 2010 season.
Since the Nets just traded away Vince Carter and they have freed up their pay roll, which free agent will the nets most likely turn to?
Lebron is going to stay in cleveland. They just landed shaq and i predict the cavs signing another good player in the offseason to give them a great shot at winning a championship next year.
Cleveland is on the downswing in the East. Orlando & Boston have gotten significantly better in the offseason and cleveland has not kept pace. Sorry to say Shaq’s star day are long past. Now with shaq camped out in the lane, it seems like it will be more difficult for a slasher like LBJ to get off. With the moves in the offseason, the pistons, hawks and wizards all seem 1 player from being real contenders. Miami will be be good this season, but will come up short in the playoffs. They will be lucky to keep Wade unless Riles starts pulling some strings. New York & New jersy could try to get James, but I don’t know what they offer other than boatloads of cash and better coaching. The real deal next year will be which teams that are one player away can land a middle of the pack LeMarcus Aldridge type player to get them over the hump.
the nets have just got rid of vince carter because there letting everybody know that there saving money for the free agents in 2010 i think that they will land a big man like amare or Chris bosh after they get lebron james. lebron james is not going to stay in Cleavland because he wants the most money and wants to win a championship the cavs do not have enough money to keep lebron and shaq and to get another big time player,also i dont think they are going to win a championship because the lakers just got a whole lot better by getting ron artest and they will probably re-sign lamar odom. lebron has also been a friend of part time owner of the nets jay-z i think he will play a part in the nets getting lebron.
i just hope rashard lewis + marcin gortat + another player would be traded for any of the no. 1 ~ 5 draft pick next year and also create a salary space for signing lebron james. sweet.
that goes for the magic of course. i forgot to mention.
LA made a big mistake getting rid of Ariza for Artest. Ron raises the intimidation factor but Ariza is a rising starand will be great when Artest is washed up in a few years.
As for BIG trades, Utah needs to dump Boozer for Bosh. Although not many big name players want to call Utah home, it is a much better program than Toronto and has one of the best pg’s in the league (especially when kidd and Nash retire) as well as a core of young talented players. Bosh would be a great fit for what Utah is lacking. Plus if things pan out with Lebron in the East, there will 3 big contenders in Boston, Orlando and New York.
lebron and wade are coming to NY Knicks. All you fake knick fans better not try to jump on the bandwagon next year when we are destroying the NBA
everybody always forgets that the cavs have a lot of space too..
they might not be able to afford bosh or wade..but i dont think that amare or johnson will get max contract deals.
Luke — The Cavs have no cap space. Even without LeBron’s deal, they are projected to be over the cap going into next season. Once they re-signed Varejo and signed Parker and Moon all of that cap space was gone.
http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/cavaliers.jsp
i’m ok with Wade and Bosh or Wade and Stoudemire.
Knicks suck anyway, bring back Oakley and Ewing!
LeBron and Wade might find a way to be on the same team next year. I predict multiple rings for whichever team can pull this off!
Well Shaq and Z will be gone after this year, which should take about $30 million off the Cavs books. I look for Bosh to join LBJ in Cleveland next year!
andy: $82 M – $30 M = $52 M. Projected cap is $50 M. The Cavs won’t be able to sign Bosh or any other big-name free agent unless they do it via a sign-and-trade.
I think LeBron is going to New York, and that Bosh will go there too. I have a feeling Wade is definately not going to New Yorks.
Who do you think the Celtics will pick up, if they pick up anyone.
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what about kobe bryant he is 1 or 2
listen up d wade is staying all day in the miami heat hes not going any where pat and him r going 2 make a big ass squad rembember what i say the heat got the the cap 2 get another big all star and i see pat and wade talkin to lebron to hop over to the heat and get that championship ring he wants..the miami heat is the only real team that would make it him not those pussy ass teams like nyk or nj…4 that lebron sould just stay put..
Lebron is probably going to stay in Cleveland think about it; he was born in Akron, his Baby Mama lives here, his mom lives here and he has a multi-million dollar house here. Lebron wants a championship not money. The Nets and Knicks were blown out by the Cavs this year. If the Cavs win Lebron will stay. Lebron will most likley stay, Cleveland has surrounded him with good talent. Also Shaq might resign for less, and unfortunatly Z might retire or sign for less. My guess Lebron will stay but the Cavs wont sign another big name.
Dude personally there is not going to be mutch sction in 2010. Wade Bosh and Studimire are most likley to leave. But most others are going to leave. Something off topic WHY DOES EVERY BODY HATE CLEVELAND EVERYBODY SAYS LEBRON IS LEAVING CLEVELAND! NOOOOOOOO WAAAAAAY!
dumb f***’s stop say d wade is going to leave when he anit just keep hes name out your dumb mouth you people that say stupid shit like you know what your talkin bout…and lebron if he does not when a championship this year with the sqaud he has then hes out..which i think hes not going to win the cavs they will choke…but if he does win he will stay with the cavs BIG IF..and like i said before if he leaves the cavs the real best team for lebron will be d wade and the miami heat….CAN WE SAY BACK TO BACK CHAMPIONSHIP FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS…
Miami can offer D WADE millions more than any other team next summer. And as John Hollinger and Chad Ford recently documented, the Heat also are very well-positioned to make the NBA’s biggest moves in 2010
In the end, LeBron’s going to be measured by his rings. His individual accomplishments have already secured his spot among the elites of all time. But to reside among the elites of the elites (MJ, Magic, Bird, Wade, Kobe), he needs jewelry — and he may need Wade.
Also, the unschooled might say such a move would mean LeBron couldn’t win it on his own. But MJ never won it without Scottie, Magic and Oscar never won it without Kareem, Bird never won it without Parish and McHale, Jerry West never won it without Wilt, Dr. J never won it without Moses Malone, and Kobe and D-Wade never won it without Shaq and/or Pau.
History is clear: It takes two, at least.
LeBron’s going to war with a 37-year-old Shaq (11 points, 7 rebounds a game) and Mo Williams, who while good is somewhere between the 11th- and 15th-best point guard in the league.
You can be sure Cavs fans want to see D-Wade and LeBron teaming up only at All-Star Games.
That’s good enough to get the Cavaliers close, but to get over the top, to get through the league’s gauntlet of powerhouses, LeBron needs that second guy.
And honestly, I don’t see how Cleveland’s going to get that guy in the near future. It won’t have the cap room next summer to add a top-flight player, and no combination of players in LeBron’s supporting cast is good enough to fetch a star player in a trade.
Which brings us to Miami…It would have to happen in Miami since no other team would have the cap room to sign both players.
.
It would take some sacrifices on LeBron’s part.
First, he’d be going to someone else’s team, although the Heat would immediately go from being D-Wade’s team to D-Wade-and-Lebron’s team.I think, there’d be no 1 and 1A, just two 1s.
D-WADE and LEBRON back to back championship at MIAMI 4 along time remember that if it happens …
Wade has said repeatedly that he sees a long-term future for himself in Miami…thats 4all the shit talkers
YOU knicks4eve that left that dumb ass comment….THIS IS 4 U.. As things currently stand, the Knicks could not sign both LBJ and a friend like Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade to max contracts. Presumably that would dampen LeBron’s interest in making the leap to the Big Apple. dumb ass think before you type….
Dude real you seam like an angry guy. You seem like Lebron is not gonna stay in Cleveland. He wants a championship and the cavs can get it to him they have a good team. His family and mansion are in Akron. Shaq helped D-Wade and the Black Mamba win a championship what says he wont help Lebron We needed a strong big man last year to match up against Dwight. Speaking of the playoffs Miami played their hardest against the Hawks (4-3 series). We Swept the Hawks. Lebron wants a championship. For spotlight he would go to The Knickerbockers (Knicks) but lets face it they suck. My prediction he will sign with Cavs because the only better team now are the Lakers. He will sign but for small contracts and will leave if we dont keep heading toward a championship.
Real What up with the potty mouth “Dirty mouth clean it up with Orbit” -Orbit Gum
John Paulson Lebron wants to win a championship he would never go to the Knickerbockers (Knicks) or Nets because they dont have exceptional tallent they can’t even make it to the play-offs the best fit is Chicago (If Lebron leavs the Cavs)
It is rather close to Akron but he will probably sign a small contract with the Cavs.
i think james is going to stay and d wade too. since i am nets fan, i think nets will get better player who can stay healthy.
Wade will probably stay in miami but it would be the best career choice for him to go to Chicago. Lebron i think will stay in cleveland but the cavs will bring in a big name to help him out. I think Bosh is the one everyone should be trying to get their hands on. Chicago would be a bad choice for bosh either. At the end of all this the Cavs and Bulls will be the best contenders Chicago definately has the players to support a big name like wade or james maybe even Bosh…
The top 10 list will be as fallows
1. Lebron James with out a question
2. Dwayne Wade
3. Yao Ming (healthy)
4. Amare stoudemire
5. Dirk Nowitzki
6. Chris Bosh
7. David Lee
8. Joe Johnson
9. Carlos Boozer
10. Rudy Gay
As for the rest of the free agents, shaq, redd, mc grady, allen, pierce are all dying stars past there prime. teams have to be looking forward to the future and none of players aer gonna help you win a championship.. All though rudy gay wont get the contract the other players get he will attract more attention… You could arguebly put ginobli and salmons at the position though
The lakers should trade vujayic, walton, mbenga, morrison, for Nowitzki, Stoudemaire, or Bosh.
1.Lebron
2.Wade
3.Bosh
4.Amare
5.Dirk
6.Johnson
7.Boozer
8.Pierce
9.Allen
10.Lee
Manu is no longer a free agent.
Lebron leaving after getting kicked out of playoffs Wade staying knicks get lebron and bosh mabe jo johnson after wat happend with the hawks… No max contract 4 him and knicks resignn lee 2
It would be nice to see Wade, LeBron, and another All-Star in Miami with Pat Riley behind the bench as this would essentially ensure the Heat multiple championships and create the “dynasty” that Riles and the rest of Heat Nation desires.
But, look for Stoudemire or Bosh paired with Boozer to stop by South Beach, and who knows maybe Beasley becomes the superstar Pat Riley thinks he is…
For more check out http://miamiheatfreak.com/
Lebron going 2 ny so iz bosh and mabe joe Johnson. And if the knicks r lucky they resign lee and Earl Barron if thts a combo wit will the thrill gallo bill walker Toney douglus and the fifth player I forget the knicks have no draft picks well sukish 1s atleast so free agency iz there only hope
1.lebron
2.d.wade
3.bosh
4.amare
5.johnson
6.pierce
7.dirk
8.boozer
9.lee
10.rudy