In order to help get you ready for the MLB season, we’re doing division-by-division rankings with quick overviews on how each club could fair in 2010. Next to each team, you’ll also find a corresponding number written in parenthesis, which indicates where we believe that club falls in a league-wide power ranking. Be sure to check back throughout the next two weeks leading up to the season, as we will be updating our content daily. Enjoy.

All 2010 MLB Preview Content | AL East Preview | AL Central Preview | AL West Preview | NL East | NL Central | NL West

Next up is the NL Central.

1. St. Louis Cardinals (4)
Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday could help the Cardinals win this division sauced out of their minds on a nightly basis. That said, would anyone really be surprised if Carpenter’s arm falls off and the starting pitching (which is among the best in the league) suffers? It’s happened before, so if you answered “yes” to the proposed question then you sir or madam, have not been paying attention. Still, the addition of Brad Penny (who pitched well in the second half last year) will strengthen the club’s starting pitching and Kyle Lohse is a fine middle of the rotation guy. Pujols and Holliday will ignite the offense again, although Colby Rasmus might be the key to whether or not this team makes a serious World Series run. Skip Schumaker is a solid table setter, but how Rasmus fairs hitting in front of Pujols and Holliday could be the difference between the Cards winning the NL Central again and playing for a championship. David Freese better produce too or else the club will regret not acquiring a veteran third baseman in the offseason. All in all, the Cardinals are the best the NL Central has to offer and should make another postseason appearance this season. But how far they go beyond that depends on whether or not Carpenter and Wainwright can continue their magic and if Pujols and Holliday receive help from the rest of the lineup.

2. Chicago Cubs (13)
Some pundits expect the Reds to leapfrog the Cubs in the division this year, but I believe Chicago is more inclined to rebound than sink further into baseball misery (I say misery because no team wants to be outplayed by the Reds…no offense, Pittsburgh – keep your heads up). Keep in mind that this club is only two years removed from winning 97 games and the roster hasn’t seen that much turnover. Last year, the Cubs were hit extremely hard with injuries (Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano), unexpected poor play (Geovany Soto), expected poor play (Kosuke Fukudome) and clubhouse-killing diseases (Milton Bradley). I’m not making excuses for the Cubs because they did play poorly, but they still have enough talent to win the NL Wild Card and maybe even challenge the Cardinals in the division. Assuming everyone stays healthy, Ramirez, Soriano and Derrek Lee give the Cubs plenty of power and the starting pitching (Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster) is solid when healthy. If Carlos Marmol ever figures out how to exploit his talent, the bullpen would be in good shape as well. That said, along with staying healthy, this club needs role players like Fukudome, Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theriot and the newly acquired Marlon Byrd to produce. Chances are, a second place finish is the ceiling for the Cubs. But again, a Wild Card berth isn’t out of the question.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (17)
What happened to this team? It doesn’t seem that long ago that the Brewers had the right mix of players in place to make winning the NL Central a regular thing and then almost out of nowhere, they became non-factors. The biggest issue they had last year was their starting pitching, which was a disaster (5.37 ERA) outside of Yovani Gallardo (3.73). The club added Randy Wolf and Doug Davis over the offseason, which should help but Dave Bush (whose had a solid spring), Jeff Suppan (who could be released) and/or Manny Parra (the poster child for inconsistency) need to step up. The Brewers have the best 3-4 hitters in baseball in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but they sacrificed offense this offseason when they traded J.J. Hardy and Mike Cameron. Much like the starting pitching, role players like Cory Hart, Carlos Gomez and Rickie Weeks need to improve their production for Milwaukee to have a chance this season. It would also be nice if left-hander Mat Gamel could make a contribution this year, but he’s likely to start the season on the DL and after that, Triple-A. The bottom line is that the Brewers certainly have enough talent to be dangerous, but there are just too many question marks surrounding this club. The starting pitching isn’t reliable and Braun and Fielder can’t win every game on their own.

4. Cincinnati Reds (21)
Like the Reds this year, do you? Think they’ll be better than what everyone expects? Think they’ll finally snap that pesky nine-season losing streak? Look, I don’t fault you for thinking that way. Edison Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo comprise a solid rotation (although who knows how long it will be before Volquez recovers from Tommy John surgery). This club also has a good bullpen, is one of the more athletic teams in baseball and headlined by Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, the offense has a nice core as well. So what’s the problem? The problem is that the Reds never win. People like to harp on the Mets failing to live up to expectations or on the Pirates and Royals for being horrid every summer but what about the Reds? They haven’t won in nine years and unless Votto and Phillips turn in MVP-caliber seasons, this club is destined to fall short of 82 victories again. Plus, while he’s beloved and usually gets the most of out of his players, manager Dusty Baker is brutal when it comes to taking care of his pitcher’s arms. I can’t prove it, but I’m almost positive that his life mission is to overuse as many pitchers as he can before he hangs up his wristbands. (Consider this your official warning, Aroldis Chapman.) I want to believe in this club – I really do. But given their history, Volquez’s health and Baker’s incompetence, I just can’t see the Reds finishing higher than third or fourth in the division.

5. Houston Astros (26)
I’d love to sit down with Houston’s front office and pick their brains about the direction of their club. Because it seems to me that the ‘Stros are in some kind of albatross of mediocrity and there’s zero hope on the horizon. The starting lineup is fine at the top, but there’s nothing of substance beyond that. If Michael Bourn, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence can’t produce, then nobody will expect Kazuo Matsui, Pedro Feliz and JR Towles to pick up the slack. It’s the same story in the starting rotation, where Wandy Rodriguez and Roy Oswalt are the stars and have nothing resembling a supporting cast behind them. This team is the epitome of blah and will probably fade into the background once the season starts. The frustrating thing (at least for fans) is that the Astros have a good enough core to compete, but the surrounding pieces just won’t allow it. Plus, they have very little in the farm system, so they’re essentially stuck with what they have.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates (30)
I could do what most writers do and throw a bunch of one-liners into this preview and just rip the Pirates for being the sack of toilet water they are. (Sack of toilet water?) But really, what’s the point? Everyone knows that the Buc-o’s front office avoids winning at all costs and that the club is destined to lose for the 18th season in a row. There is some hope on the horizon in the form of prospects Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez and Tony Sanchez, but it’s going to be a few years. And by that time, the front office will probably recognize that those players have talent and ship them off before, God forbid, they have to give them a decent contract. Still, it’s hard not to love Andrew McCutchen’s ability and Garrett Jones could be a star in the making if he can build off his solid ’09 season. The Pirates’ strength is also in their starting pitching, as Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf form a solid 1-2-3 punch at the top of the rotation. But other than that, well, insert punch line here.

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]]> https://www.scoresreport.com/2010/03/26/2010-mlb-preview-nl-central/feed/ 1 https://www.scoresreport.com/2009/06/09/team-by-team-mlb-draft-rankings-best-drafts-of-the-last-10-years/ https://www.scoresreport.com/2009/06/09/team-by-team-mlb-draft-rankings-best-drafts-of-the-last-10-years/#comments Tue, 09 Jun 2009 17:15:18 +0000 https://www.scoresreport.com/?p=19762

With the 2009 MLB Draft set to kickoff at 6:00 ET tonight on the MLB Network, SI.com did a cool feature in which they rated how each club has fared over the past 10 years when it comes to the draft.

The Brewers were rated number one and it’s hard to argue with the ranking after looking at the names Milwaukee has drafted over the years: Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Manny Parra, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo. Amazingly, this club also drafted Hunter Pence (Astros), but couldn’t sign him.

The Red Sox were rated No. 2, with Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and Manny Delcarmen leading the way, but the site left off a glaring omission: Jacoby Ellsbury. The Rays actually drafted Ellsbury in the 2002 draft, but never signed him. The Sox then nabbed him with the 23rd overall pick in 2005 and he’s currently their starting centerfielder.

Speaking of the Rays, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tampa ranked higher than No. 4 in the next couple of years. Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, James Shields, Andy Sonnanstine and David Price are just some of the names they’ve drafted in the past 10 years. Don’t forget that they were the team that also drafted Josh Hamilton before he got injured and then became the poster child of what not to do when you’re an inspiring ballplayer with loads of free time on your hands.

You look at a club like the Nationals ranked No. 8 and you wonder why they’ve been so awful over the years despite drafting so well. Then you realized they dealt Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips all in the same trade for Bartolo Colon and it all starts to make sense.

If you’re wondering whom SI had ranked last, it was the Astros; only Hunter Pence was worth noting of the players Houston drafted the past 10 years. The White Sox were second to last, although if Josh Fields, Chris Getz, Clayton Richard and Gordon Beckham develop like the club hopes, I highly doubt Chicago will be ranked that low again if SI does another ranking like this in the next couple of years.

There’s a different feel to baseball again – a good feeling.

Yeah, I know – there are probably still plenty of players who are cheating. But at least the league is (finally) making somewhat of an effort to clean up its image and for that, we as fans have hope that maybe someday the game will be juice-free again.

Those who have watched their fair share of baseball this season should be reveling in how the game is getting younger again. Instead of teams waiting for dingers in order to score runs, clubs are bunting, stealing and manufacturing scoring opportunities – the way the game is supposed to be played.

After watching how the Rays won last season, more and more teams are building their rosters by developing home grown talent rather than signing big-name free agents (save for the Yankees, of course) and it’s making the game exciting again. An onus has been made on youth and speed and for the first time in quite a while, baseball is once again a young man’s game.

That said, I’ve decided to have a little fun by constructing an entire 25-man baseball roster (I’ve named the team “Team Youthful Exuberance”) by using only players who are 25 years of age and younger. Rules and guidelines for the roster are below so enjoy and as always, feel free to make an argument for any players that I might have missed.

Rules, Guidelines & Notes:

– Any player that turned the age of 26 before April 5, 2009, which was Opening Day for the 2009 MLB season, was considered ineligible. Therefore, two current 26 year-olds (Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera) are eligible for this team because they didn’t turn 26 until after the April 5 deadline.

The reason for the deadline was to squash any debate about what players were and weren’t eligible for the team based on when they turned 26.

– Players can be moved from their real MLB positions, but within reason. For example, I can’t move Evan Longoria to catcher to free up a spot at third base for a player like Ryan Zimmerman, but I can move Justin Upton to left field even though his natural position is right.

– Starting pitchers are starting pitchers and relief pitchers are relief pitchers. In efforts not to stack my pitching staff with all starters, I couldn’t make a starter a relief pitcher. However, closers are considered relief pitchers, so I can have multiple closers if I choose.

– The roster numbers are of that of a major league roster: (2) Catchers; (6) Infielders; (5) Outfielders; (5) Starters; (7) Relief Pitchers. (25 total.)

Owner: George Steinbrenner. If anyone was worried about how we’d pay for all of these contracts, fear not – Big Stienny is here. Dude blows his nose with hundred dollar bills.

Manager: Joe Torre. This club needs a father figure to keep all of these young players in line. The only problem is that we had to give Torre a truckload of money in order for him to agree to work with Steinbrenner again.

General Manager: Anthony Stalter. Why? Because I constructed this f’n team – that’s why. Theo Epstein who?

Now, without further ado, I give you: Team Youthful Exuberance.

Roster:

Catchers (2): Joe Mauer (26, Twins); Brian McCann (25, Braves)
At first, I had McCann penciled in as the starter and Orioles’ top prospect Matt Weiters backing him up, but then I stumbled upon this beautiful date in history: April 19, 1983, which is Mauer’s birthday. Even though he’s 26, he qualifies for this team because he was 25 on April 5, which is my made up deadline. With Mauer behind the dish, TYE (Team Youthful Exuberance) has a player that can hit for average and power, as well as someone that can take charge of a stacked pitching staff. It’s almost unfair that a player as good as McCann has been delegated to backup duty, but if Mauer’s back starts acting up again, then TYE has one hell of a replacement.

Infield (6): Evan Longoria (23, Rays); Hanley Ramirez (25, Marlins); Dustin Pedroia (25, Red Sox); Prince Fielder (25, Brewers); Jose Reyes (25, Mets); Miguel Cabrera (26, Tigers)
Look at that infield and tell me the hair on your ass doesn’t stand up with excitement. Longoria might be the one player TYE builds its entire roster around with his outstanding ability to hit for average and power. Ramirez is another player who can hit for average and drive in runs, all while swiping a fair amount of bases as well. It’s hard to argue against Pedroia being TYE’s starting second baseman given he’s the reigning AL MVP and we’re ecstatic to add his speed at the top of the lineup, too. TYE has options at first base in Fielder and Cabrera, the latter of which qualifies for the team because of his birthday (April 18, 1983). Depending on who gets the nod at first, the other can DH given that both players have a tremendous amount of power. Even though he’s been hurt most of the real season and needs to work on not running into outs while on the base paths, we figure Reyes is a tremendous middle infield addition who has loads of speed and adds to the overall athleticism of the club. Don’t forget that Cabrera can also play third base if Longoria needs a day off, so this club has options.

Outfield (5): Adam Jones (23, Orioles); Jacoby Ellsbury (25, Red Sox); Justin Upton (21, Diamondbacks); Nick Markakis (25, Orioles); Ryan Braun (25, Brewers)
The outfield position was incredibly difficult to pare down to just five players, because there are so many great young OFs to choose from in MLB. But in the end, we chose as many five-tool players that we could and we’re happy with the results. Jones is quickly emerging as one of the best young outfielders in the game, Ellsbury gives us a true leadoff hitter and a great defensive centerfielder, while Justin Upton is proving at age 21 that his potential is sky high. Markakis is struggling a bit this year with his average, but he has one of the better outfield arms in baseball and while Braun can be downright brutal defensively at times, it’s hard to pass up on a guy that can hit for a .300 average all while driving in 100-plus runs and blasting 30-plus dingers. This outfield is loaded with hitters that can hit for average, that have a good amount of pop, can run and also play some quality defense (save for Braun).

Starters (5): Tim Lincecum (24, Giants); Cole Hamels (25, Phillies); Zack Greinke (25, Royals); Chad Billingsley (24, Dodgers); Yovani Gallardo (23, Brewers)
Before I discuss the starters I did choose, here are some of the names that I had to pass on: Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, Jair Jurrjens, John Danks, Johnny Cueto, Edwin Jackson, Rick Porcello, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Clayton Kershaw, Joba Chamberlain, Zach Duke, Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, Matt Garza and David Price. It killed me to pass on Johnson, Kershaw, Chamberlain and Hernandez specifically, but in the end I chose the best five in terms of ERA, WHIP and strikeout potential. With so many great names to choose from, I know I’m going to get some backlash for who I passed on, but Lincecum is a freak of nature, Greinke has been absolutely phenomenal this season (although I’ll admit that had I done this at the beginning of the year, he wouldn’t have made the starting five) and Billingsley has been lights out. Hamels has struggled a bit with his ERA and he can be inconsistent at times, but his performance in last year’s postseason speaks for itself. I’m projecting a bit with Gallardo, but I would have been doing the same with Kershaw, Johnson and Chamberlain, so I feel good about the decision to go with the 23-year-old Brewer.

Relievers (7): Joakim Soria (25, Royals); Jonathan Broxton (24, Dodgers); Jeff Samardzija (24, Cubs); Joel Zumaya (24, Tigers); Andrew Bailey (25, A’s); Daniel Bard (23, Braves Red Sox); Ryan Perry (22, Tigers)
Pick your poison with this bunch; Soria, Broxton and Bailey can all close games, while Zumaya would make an outstanding setup man. The only issue I have with this group is whether or not any of them can come in for long relief if one of the starters gets rocked and I’m projecting a ton with Samardzija, Bard and Perry. Either way, this relief staff is chockfull of guys that can throw absolute cheddar and the thought process is that the starting pitching will go deep into most games anyway, so why not build the back of the rotation with 7th, 8th and 9th-inning arms?

Projected Lineup:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, DH
5. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
6. Joe Mauer, C
7. Hanley Ramirez, SS
8. Ryan Braun, LF
9. Justin Upton, RF

Obviously you can switch around a lot of these hitters, but it’s pretty sick when Hanley Ramirez is your seventh hitter and Ryan Braun is eighth. Not too mention the bench still has Adam Jones, Jose Reyes, Brian McCann and Nick Markakis sitting on it. Sick.

Starting Rotation:

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Cole Hamels
3. Chad Billingsley
4. Zack Greinke
5. Yovani Gallardo

The lack of lefties scares me a bit, which makes me question whether or not I should go with Clayton Kershaw and drop Gallardo…no, no – Gallardo is staying. But I do love Kershaw…no, Gallardo – final answer.

Team Youthful Exuberance: Go F yourselves Yankees and Red Sox.

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Offseason Movement: The Brewers signed long-time Padres’ closer Trevor Hoffman in the offseason and also brought on pitchers Jorge Julio and Braden Looper, as well as outfielder Trot Nixon.

Top Prospect: Mat Gamel, 3B
Some would say Alcides Escobar is the Brewers’ top prospect, but you can’t go wrong with either. Milwaukee seems to be following a trend of taking prospects based more on their offense than defense, because not unlike Matt LaPorta and Ryan Braun before him, Gamel doesn’t have the best defensive skills. But there is no denying that the kid can hit. Gamel has a nice, pure swing and has shown excellent plate discipline to this point in his career. He has great hand/eye coordination and he loves hitting the gaps. Gamel figures to start the season in Triple-A, but could get a shot to compete if Bill Hall continues to struggle with a calf injury.

The Big Question: How will this club respond without CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets?
The Brewers’ starting rotation shows some potential with Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra at the top. But Gallardo missed four and a half months last year with a knee injury and Parra has had some shoulder issues in the past. If Sabathia and Sheets headlined the rotation, then there would obviously be less concern about Gallardo and Parra’s injury history. But considering Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Braden Looper and Seth McClung comprise the rest of the rotation, there are a ton of question marks following the Brewers’ pitching staff heading into Opening Day.

Outlook: Milwaukee’s lineup is absolutely stacked from top to bottom. Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Corey Hart make up one of the best middle of the order trio in the National League, while Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy have proven to be solid table setters. Unless a couple of players make lengthy trips to the DL, the Brewers will once again score a ton of runs this season. But will they have to? Losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets at the top of the rotation hurts and unless Yovani Gallardo and Matt Para have breakout seasons, the Brewers might not make a ton of noise this year. Then again, Gallardo and Para very well could have breakout campaigns and with that lineup, Milwaukee could easily win the Wild Card again. Their success this season likely lies at the feet of their starting rotation.

Projection: 3rd NL Central

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

As someone who loyally subscribes to the “wait for pitching” strategy on draft day, I’m always on the lookout for value starters. Experience has shown me that there are plenty of nice starting pitching bargains in the middle and late rounds every year, and if I’m diligent enough, I can also add pitching via the waiver wire during the season. All of which allows me to load up on as much hitting as I can in the early rounds, understanding that the more offensive firepower I have on my roster, the easier it will be to trade for a top-line starter should I find myself in need of reinforcements for the stretch run.

Of course, that doesn’t mean I ignore pitching on draft day. Far from it. Those SP bargains I mentioned above are available each year, if you know what to look for. Sure, it’s nice to have a reliable horse like Johan Santana or Brandon Webb anchoring your pitching staff, but the cost of adding someone like that is usually a little too steep for my tastes. So instead, my goal is to take five to seven solid starters who can deliver quality ratios while racking up strikeouts. Ideally, I also look for guys who pitch for successful teams, hoping that will translate to wins for my team.

The guys I target tend to fall into one of four categories: Young Guns, Rebound Vets, Undervalued Arms and Late Steals. As I’ve admitted in previous posts, I’m a sucker for upside but that doesn’t mean I’ll fall for any promising youngster with a lively arm. I’m also a sucker for a good revival story so I’m always looking for veterans with a solid track record whose stock has fallen because of an off year, while guys in the undervalued category tend to fly under the radar despite their consistent production. Finally, I try to wrap up every draft with one or two late-round picks that could pay off big in the long run.

Below, I’ve listed several pitchers I’ve got my eye on in each of these four categories, using the Average Draft Position (ADP) from ESPN’s draft kit as a guide. I’ve included the ADP as well as the SP rank (SP13, for example) for each of the 16 starters below. These aren’t, of course, the only guys who would qualify in these categories, just the ones at the top of my list. If you’re thinking about stockpiling bats early in your draft, maybe they should be at the top of your list too.

Felix Hernandez, Mariners
ADP: 67.5, SP13
I was tempted to go with Francisco Liriano, another enticing youngster with loads of upside, in this slot but ultimately sided with King Felix’s healthier track record. While a seventh-round pick isn’t exactly chump change for a guy who’s never won more than 14 games in a single season (he went 9-11 last year) and whose hype has far outweighed his production to this point in his career, don’t forget Felix will be just 22 on Opening Day. In fact, he’s two years younger than Tim Lincecum, but he’s made 47 more starts than San Fran’s ace and he’s going five rounds later than Lincecum in most drafts. Clearly, Lincecum has been more productive to date but Felix arguably has just as much raw talent and, if he can lower his walk rate, he could become a top-five starter as early as this year. If and when this kid finally breaks out, you’ll want to be onboard.

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
ADP: 101.3, SP20
Gallardo was one of the most popular preseason sleeper picks last year, and after a knee injury limited him to just four starts in ’08, many are again anticipating a breakout season for the 23 year old. Gallardo put up superb numbers in the minors and, if he can stay healthy, he looks like a future ace with excellent strikeout potential and a potent offense behind him. He’s being drafted as a top-25 pitcher so the hype is considerable, but if you can handle the risk, the reward could be huge.

Edinson Volquez, Reds
ADP: 123.4, SP27
Johnny Cueto, Reds
ADP: 221.6, SP71
I like both of Cincinnati’s young power arms, but considering their respective ADP’s, I’d rather own Cueto this year. That’s not meant as a slight to Volquez, who won 17 games last season with a 3.21 ERA and 206 strikeouts after likely going undrafted in most leagues. The talent is undeniable but it also will come at a premium on draft day, whereas Cueto largely flew under the radar after earning some early raves during his rookie campaign. The 9-14 record and 4.81 ERA pale in comparison to Volquez’s sterling numbers, but don’t overlook Cueto’s solid 158-68 K/BB ratio (compared to his teammate’s 206-93 mark). If Cueto can cut down on the 29 homers he coughed up last year, he’ll easily outperform his draft position.

Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks
ADP: 162.7, SP39
I’m generally leery about starters with injury concerns, but Scherzer’s talent is simply too tantalizing to ignore. The 24-year-old righty was shut down in January after experiencing some shoulder soreness but all reports indicate that he’ll be ready to step in as the D-Backs’ fifth starter when the season starts. Scherzer failed to win any of his seven starts last year but his 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 66 strikeouts in 56 combined innings between the rotation and bullpen point to his immense potential. His ADP may seem a little high considering his limited track record, but the back end of your draft is the perfect time to roll the dice on a young talent like Scherzer.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox
ADP: 76.9, SP16
I’ve never been the biggest Josh Beckett fan, primarily due to his sketchy injury history, but after following up his Cy Young 2007 campaign with a largely disappointing performance last season, Beckett may well be the biggest potential SP value in the first half of your draft. Granted, an eighth-round pick is nothing to sneeze at but, at just 28, Beckett could easily deliver second- or third-round stats if he avoids the injury bug. While some would classify that as a big “if,” don’t forget that Beckett logged 200-plus innings in his first two seasons with Boston. There’s some risk here to be sure, but also a golden opportunity to buy low on one of the game’s elite starters.

Justin Verlander, Tigers
ADP: 154.4, SP38
Where did that come from? The 26-year-old Verlander seemed primed to claim his spot among the top starters in all of baseball, but thanks to a drop in velocity and a bout of wildness, he instead sabotaged the title hopes of many fantasy owners with an 11-17 record and 4.84 ERA. Most concerning was that his strikeouts dropped by 20 (183 to 163) and his walks rose by 20 (67 to 87). But as with Beckett, this could be a prime chance to buy low on a young starter with a solid track record. Spring results have thus far been mixed and I’m certainly not suggesting you break the bank for Verlander, but as a fourth or even fifth starter, there’s a lot to like here.

Erik Bedard, Mariners
ADP 175.4, SP45
Of the four starters in this group, I’m the least confident about Bedard. He’s never crossed the 200-innings threshold, his K/BB ratio dipped from 3.88 to 1.95 last year, he has one complete game in 126 career starts, and he has a mediocre offense backing him up. Doesn’t sound like much of an endorsement, I know, but if the goal is to buy low and sell high, there’s never been a better time to invest in Bedard. There’s no guarantee that his should problems are behind him but he’s looked healthy so far this spring and, after signing a one-year deal with Seattle, he’s playing for his next contract. That’s music to any fantasy owner’s ears who hopes that an 18th-round investment can result in a repeat of Bedard’s 2007 performance (13-5, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 221 K).

Aaron Harang, Reds
ADP 176.2, SP46
Harang makes for an interesting story. After three consecutive 200-inning, sub-4.00 ERA seasons that yielded 43 wins and a 597-159 K/BB ratio, he entered the 2008 campaign as one of fantasy’s most underrated starters. But a forearm injury contributed to a lost season for the 30-year-old righty as his numbers fell across the board en route to a 17-loss campaign. All of which means Harang is more undervalued than ever. His weak spring numbers are a bit concerning and some say all the innings he threw from 2005-07 are finally catching up to him, but there was no indication of any sort of decline in 2007. After posting a 3.07 ERA in six September starts last year, I like Harang’s chances for a rebound.

Javier Vazquez, Braves
ADP: 149.5, SP35
Some (including former manager Ozzie Guillen) may argue that Vazquez is actually overrated, considering the 32-year-old right hander has posted an ERA above 4.40 in four of the last five seasons. It’s a valid criticism, but keep in mind that Vazquez also has averaged 197 strikeouts per year since 2005 and his WHIP is generally solid. He won’t anchor your staff, but a move to the National League and into a more pitcher-friendly home stadium should help Vazquez outperform his reasonable ADP.

Randy Johnson, Giants
ADP: 172.7, SP44
Speaking of moving to a better home park, Johnson should enjoy his new digs in San Fran after coughing up 16 of his 24 home runs at Arizona’s Chase Field in 2008. The lanky lefty’s ADP suggests that many owners didn’t notice just how effective Johnson was in his desert return, to the tune of 11 wins, 3.91 ERA, 1.24 and 173 strikeouts. He may be 45, but as his 2.41 second-half ERA suggests, the Big Unit clearly has plenty left in the tank.

Brett Myers, Phillies
ADP: 180.7, SP48
After getting shifted back to the rotation following the Brad Lidge acquisition, Myers was positively brutal in the first half last season, posting a 5.84 ERA through June that earned him a demotion to AAA. The 28 year old was much better upon his return, winning seven games to round out the season with an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP of 1.17. The overall numbers (10-13, 4.55 ERA, 1.38 WHP) clearly are scaring owners who have forgotten that Myers was very good in 2005 and 2006 before the Phillies moved him into the closer’s role. He’s always been susceptible to the long ball, even during his best years as a starter, but when you’re looking to round out your rotation in the middle rounds or later, Myers’ track record and strikeout ability should plant him squarely on your radar.

Chris Young, Padres
ADP: 219.2, SP69
In the “What have you done for me lately?” world of fantasy baseball, Chris Young is getting very little respect. Granted, we’re not talking about a staff ace but once the surefire starters are off the board, a guy with Young’s ability and track record should be an appealing option. Unfortunately, that track record includes several stints on the DL, which may be the only reason the 6-10 righty hasn’t officially broken out yet. He’s been good for nearly a strikeout per inning over the last three years and his spacious home park only adds to his value. The injuries are a legitimate concern but if Young gives you 30-plus starts (which he did from 2005-07), you’ll have yourself a huge bargain.

John Smoltz, Red Sox
ADP: 220.2, SP70
The obvious caveat with Smoltz is that you’ll need to be prepared to wait if you decide to take a flier on him. Reports as of this writing say he won’t be ready to take the mound for the Red Sox until late-May or into June. So let’s say he returns around the All Star break and goes on to give you 100 innings. Would you take that from a pitcher with a 3.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his 13-year career? Yes, he’s 41 but he also was an extremely effective fantasy starter for the three years prior to last season’s shoulder injury. Draft Smoltz late, stash him on your DL for the first half of the season, and then smile as he solidifies your rotation down the stretch.

John Maine, Mets
ADP: 224.9, SP75
Maine plummeted from chic preseason pick to late-round afterthought thanks to his underwhelming performance last season. But here’s the thing: he wasn’t all that bad. He wasn’t all that good either, but that’s what makes him such an intriguing flier this year. After striking out 180 batters in 191 innings two years ago, he maintained a solid 7.84 K/9 ratio in 2008 despite battling a shoulder injury for much of the season. Fortunately, the injury wasn’t all that serious and Maine has been healthy (albeit a little rusty) so far this spring. As with most pitchers at this point of your draft, Maine won’t anchor your staff but, at just 27 years old and with serious strikeout potential, you won’t find many arms with as much upside in the 23rd round.

Kelvim Escobar, Angels
ADP: 260, SP97
Escobar just barely slides into the top 100 at his position, but he’s owned in just 1.8% of ESPN leagues. That will change if the talented 32 year old can stay healthy. Of course, that’s always been the kicker with Escobar, who’s logged more than 200 innings just once in his career, but his recovery from August shoulder surgery looks to be on track, with early estimates saying he could take the mound by May. His return won’t match Smoltz’s in terms of fantasy impact, but as a guy who won 18 games in 2007, hasn’t had an ERA above 3.93 since 2003, and is always good for a healthy number of strikeouts, he makes for an appealing DL stash to round out your draft.

Because the truth is, the Phillies did not hit a bunch in their 3-1 win over the Brewers. They had only four hits on a rainy, dreary afternoon. All three runs were unearned, thanks to some sloppy third-inning defense by the Brewers. The Phillies’ great fear after hitting .172 in last year’s playoff series against Colorado was upon them again. They worked some counts against Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo and got him out of the game quickly, but they really did not hit. It was a concern last year and it is a concern this year, especially with CC Sabathia pitching Game 2 for the Brewers.

But Hamels saved them. Cool, calm, collected and with a killer change-up, Hamels had the Brewers off-stride all day. Masterful is not too strong a word. Through eight dominant innings, he allowed only two singles, one in the fifth inning and one in the sixth, and struck out nine. Only one Milwaukee runner reached second base with Hamels on the mound. Again, masterful.

What that does for a team is hard to explain. What it does for a team that didn’t hit last year in the playoffs, and sometimes struggled to score runs this year, and didn’t really hit all that much during the game, is impossible to understate.

He calmed them. He bolstered them. He was as soothing as Brad Lidge was nerve-wracking in the ninth.

With how much firepower Milwaukee has in their lineup, there has to be some concern among the Philly faithful about the lack of offense the Phillies showed today, because obviously the team won’t get a Hamels-type pitching effort every game. But the fans and team can certainly enjoy this win, which was the club’s first postseason victory since Game 5 of the 1993 World Series when the Phils beat the Toronto Blue Jays.