Over the next five weeks, I will go position by position and rank the top 30 players by total value. The NBA is a business, so it doesn’t make sense to purely rank the players only by their talent or stats, or by some other qualitative measure (though those factors do matter). We must also look at a player’s salary relative to his peers. Obviously, if a player is in the middle of a very reasonable contract, he’ll get a boost in the rankings.
To summarize a player’s stats, I’ll use the NBA Efficiency statistic, which is defined as:
EFF = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) – ((Field Goals Att. – Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. – Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))
I’ll list Efficiency Per Game (EPG) for each player, which will give a nice snapshot of his stats. To compare two players that get vastly different minutes, I’ll occasionally mention Efficiency Per Minute (EPM), which is simply the player’s total efficiency divided by his minutes.
I’ll also consider a player’s age and potential. All else being equal, a franchise would probably prefer a 25 year-old point guard to a 32 year-old point guard, right? Essentially, the order of this list comes down to this question – would you trade Player X for Player Y, assuming the goal is to win a title in the next three seasons at a reasonable payroll?
To summarize, there are four major factors I’ll consider: talent (statistical performance), contract, age and potential.
Without further ado, here are the top 30 point guards, ranked by total value:
1. Chris Paul, Hornets
Age: 23
EPG: 27.8
Contract: two years, $10.6 M ($5.3 M per)
Not only has Paul emerged as hands-down the best point guard in the game, he is still on his rookie contract, so he’s a bargain to boot.
2. Deron Williams, Jazz
Age: 23
EPG: 23.0
Contract: two years, $11.8 M ($5.9 M per)
Williams is bigger and stronger than Paul, and is also a better outside shooter. But Paul has the edge in quickness, ball handling and court vision.
3. Tony Parker, Spurs
Age: 25
EPG: 16.9
Contract: three years, $37.7 M ($12.6 M per)
Parker is young, speedy and a proven player in the clutch. Plus, his salary is fairly reasonable for a player of his caliber. His defense is mediocre at best.
4. Chauncey Billups, Pistons
Age: 31
EPG: 19.6
Contract: three years, $36.3 M ($12.1 M per)
Mr. “Big Shot” is getting older, but he’s a proven winner and should have a few good years left. His affordable contract puts him ahead of the next few guys.
5. Baron Davis, Warriors
Age: 29
EPG: 22.6
Contract: free agent / player option for one year, $17.2 M
Davis is a fierce competitor and a clutch player, but he’s a little injury-prone. His next contract is up in the air, but he’ll probably ask for close to the max.
6. Steve Nash, Suns
Age: 34
EPG: 22.5
Contract: two years, $25.4 M ($12.7 M per)
One of the best shooters in the league, anyone watching the Suns can see that Nash has lost a half step. He’s still a joy to watch in the open court and in a pick and roll, but his defense is a liability.
7. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards
Age: 26
EPG: 15.6
Contract: free agent
There is no doubt that Agent Zero is extremely talented (especially offensively), but he’ll be looking for a max contract and I don’t know if an expensive, shoot-first point guard is the way to build a championship contender.
8. Monta Ellis, Warriors
Age: 22
EPG: 20.4
Contract: free agent
Ellis is more of a scoring guard than a pure point guard, but I think he has the tools to run a team. With his contract status up in the air, it’s tough to get a gauge on his true value.
9. Devin Harris, Nets
Age: 25
EPG: 15.8
Contract: five years, $42.3 M ($8.5 M per)
Harris is a lightning-quick point guard with an improving jumper. This season, he set career highs in points, assists, steals and three-point percentage and the Mavs still decided to trade him away.
10. Allen Iverson, Nuggets
Age: 32
EPG: 23.3
Contract: one year, $23.9 M
AI is fearless and is one of the league’s most prolific scorers. He hasn’t lost a step, but one wonders how much more abuse his body can take. His high price tag makes him a risky proposition.
11. Jason Kidd, Mavs
Age: 35
EPG: 20.5
Contract: one year, $21.4 M
Kidd has trouble guarding quicker point guards and is not a consistent shooter. At his current price tag, I don’t think he’s a championship piece.
12. Jose Calderon, Raptors
Age: 26
EPG: 17.9
Contract: restricted free agent
On a per minute basis, Calderon is better than big names like Jason Kidd, AI and Baron Davis. He’s an amazing shooter (43% from 3PT) and has great court vision (8.3 apg). Toronto won’t let him get away.
13. Mo Williams, Bucks
Age: 25
EPG: 18.0
Contract: four years, $35.0 M ($8.8 M per)
Still has too much of a shoot-first mentality and his effort on defense is inconsistent, but Williams is an extremely talented guard who just needs to be coached up. Enter Scott Skiles…
14. Jameer Nelson, Magic
Age: 26
EPG: 13.9
Contract: five years, $33.6 M ($6.7 M per)
Nelson isn’t as quick as he should be for his size, but he makes up for it with strength. He’s a terrific shooter (41% from 3PT) and an improving playmaker.
15. Kirk Hinrich, Bulls
Age: 27
EPG: 13.8
Contract: four years, $36.5 M ($9.1 M per)
Hinrich just had a brutal season in which he set career lows in points, assists, rebounds, FG% and 3PT%. Will the real Kirk Hinrich please stand up?
16. Andre Miller, 76ers
Age: 32
EPG: 18.7
Contract: one year, $10.0 M
Miller set a career high in points leading the young Sixers. He was never blessed with great quickness, so age may hurt him more than most.
17. Rajon Rondo, Celtics
Age: 22
EPG: 14.0
Contract: three years, $8.1 M ($2.7 M per)
The C’s couldn’t have asked for much more from Rondo this season. He plays good defense, distributes and scores when necessary.
18. Raymond Felton, Bobcats
Age: 23
EPG: 15.1
Contract: two years, $9.7 M ($4.9 M per)
With Larry Brown in town, this will be a make-or-break season for Felton. He’s a talented playmaker, but his career FG% is under 40%. Not good.
19. T.J. Ford, Raptors
Age: 25
EPG: 13.4
Contract: two years, $16.5 M ($8.3 M per)
On a per-minute basis, Ford is in the top 10. But the big question surrounding Ford is his durability, as he has missed 38% of games over his five seasons in the league.
20. Leandro Barbosa, Suns
Age: 25
EPG: 13.8
Contract: three years, $19.8 M ($6.6 M per)
Barbosa is lightning fast and a good shooter, which makes him a very dangerous scorer. He’s not a natural ball handler or distributor.
21. Mike Bibby, Hawks
Age: 29
EPG: 14.5
Contract: one year, $15.2 M
Bibby is expensive for what he brings to the table these days, and his FG% (41%) is taking a slight dive. He improved his assist numbers with the Hawks, but seems to have a lot of mileage for a 29 year-old.
22. Jordan Farmar, Lakers
Age: 21
EPG: 9.2
Contract: three years, $5.9 M ($2.0 M per)
Farmar’s prospects were looking better before the Utah series, but he was great all season off the Laker bench and there’s no reason to think this current funk is permanent.
23. Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Age: 20
EPG: 9.8
Contract: three years, $12.4 M ($4.1 M per)
Conley was nagged by injuries in his rookie season, but he didn’t do anything to dispel the notion that he’s a terrific prospect. He just needs to learn the position in the NBA and improve that jumper.
24. Nate Robinson, Knicks
Age: 23
EPG: 11.3
Contract: two years, $4.9 M ($2.5 M per)
More of a scorer than a distributor, it might be tough for Robinson to land a starting gig at 5’9” if he isn’t going to be more of a playmaker.
25. Jason Terry, Mavs
Age: 30
EPG: 14.2
Contract: four years, $41.1 M ($10.3 M per)
There is no doubt Terry is a terrific, clutch shooter, but that contract might be a beast in its final two years.
26. Delonte West, Cavs
Age: 24
EPG: 9.6
Contract: one year, $2.8 M
The best thing to come out of the Cavs’ mid-season trades. A jack of all trades that just needs to stay healthy to be an effective starting point guard.
27. Rodney Stuckey, Pistons
Age: 22
EPG: 7.6
Contract: four years, $10.2 M ($2.6 M per)
A natural scorer, Stuckey is a big, strong comb guard that will have to learn to distribute.
28. Beno Udrih, Kings
Age: 25
EPG: 12.9
Contract: free agent
Udrih is a former Spur who couldn’t stick in San Antonio despite the team’s need for a backup point guard. He flourished in a starting role in Sacramento once Mike Bibby left town.
29. Rafer Alston, Rockets
Age: 31
EPG: 13.4
Contract: two years, $10.2 M ($5.1 M per)
A career journeyman, Alston turned out to be more important to the Rockets than anyone realized. He’s affordable, but he’s no spring chicken.
30. Earl Watson, Sonics
Age: 28
EPG: 13.2
Contract: two years, $12.8 M
Watson has developed into a solid point guard. This season, he set career highs in assists, FG%, 3PT% and FT%, and he has always been solid defensively.
Just missed the cut: Jamaal Tinsley, Pacers; Derek Fisher, Lakers; Juan Carlos Navarro, Grizzlies; Louis Williams, Sixers; Ramon Sessions, Bucks; Ronnie Price, Jazz; Anthony Carter, Nuggets; Antonio Daniels, Wizards; Jarrett Jack, Blazers; Steve Blake, Blazers
