With kickoff of Super Bowl XLVI rapidly approaching, what are some of the bigger questions surrounding Sunday’s title game?

1. Can Brady shake out of his Giant funk?
There are just some teams that Tom Brady doesn’t play well against. Entering this year’s AFC championship game, Brady’s completion percentage in five career outings against the Ravens was 55.9, which was his lowest against any team in the league. So it wasn’t any wonder while he compiled a 57.5 QB rating in a lackluster 239-yard, two-interception performance versus Baltimore two Sundays ago. Now he faces a New York team that, again, for whatever reason, he’s had trouble beating. From a passer-rating standpoint, Brady had his worst performance of the season in a Week 9 home loss to the Giants. His quarterback rating of 75.4 in the 24-20 loss was only slightly worse than his 82.5 rating in Super Bowl XLII back in 2008. Save for his 356-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Giants in Week 17 of the ’07 regular season, Brady has struggled to beat this New York team. Following his poor performance, he reportedly told owner Robert Kraft in the locker room following the AFC title game that he would play better in Super Bowl XLVI. For a quarterback that has largely been viewed as cool, calm and collected, it’s not a stretch to think that Brady is feeling the pressure of potentially losing yet another game to the Giants.

2. Can the Patriots slow the Giants’ pass rush?
These two teams have met three times since December of 2007 and during that span the Giants have sacked Brady a total of eight times (including five times in their Super Bowl victory in February of ’08). New York uses four defensive ends in passing situations, which is something no other team can boast. Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5 sacks), Justin Tuck (5 sacks), Osi Umenyiora (9 sacks in just nine games) and Dave Tollefson (five sacks) can line up at the same time because Pierre-Paul and Tuck have the ability to play inside. The Giants also have the option of playing a combination of three of those ends with Mathias Kiwanuka (3.5 sacks), who is a highly versatile role player. It’s no coincidence that Brady struggled in New England’s 24-20 home loss to New York in Week 9 considering that was one of the games Umenyiora was healthy for. When the Giants can dress all five of their pass rushers they’re a completely different defense – a defense that the Patriots and their usually solid group of pass blockers has had trouble with in the past two meetings with New York.

3. Can the Pats’ defense slow down all of the Giants’ weapons?
The Giants’ offense doesn’t receive nearly enough attention for how explosive it is. In a lot of ways, that’s a direction reflection of how some view Eli Manning, who also doesn’t receive the recognition he deserves for being a quarterback that can put pressure on a defense with his playmaking ability. For all of the attention that the Giants’ pass rush has received lately, without Manning’s outstanding play the Giants wouldn’t have won nine games this season. They wouldn’t have made the playoffs, upset the Packers at Lambeau, or have an opportunity to make it two-for-two against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Granted, Manning has had help. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz have been outstanding for a New York passing attack that stacks up to any offense in the league outside of maybe New Orleans, New England and Green Bay. Mario Manningham is also a weapon in the vertical game because he can attack a defense along the seam, which is important seeing as how New York doesn’t have a Jimmy Graham-type at tight end. Throw in Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs (who both have awoken from their season-long slumber) and yes, the Giants offense is that good. That said, New England’s red-zone defense has allowed just two touchdowns in seven opportunities throughout the playoffs, as Denver went 1-of-3 inside the 20 in the Divisional round and Baltimore went 1-of-4 in the AFC title game. Statically speaking the Patriots weren’t very good defensively this season. But they’re starting to come together on that side of the ball so it’ll be interesting to see who wins the Giants’ O vs. Patriots D matchup come Sunday.

4. Will Belichick continue to make sound second-half adjustments?
Baltimore has been the only team in the past seven weeks that has matched New England after halftime. The Ravens and Patriots each scored 10 points apiece in the second half of last Sunday’s AFC championship game, but other than that New England has killed teams in the final two quarters. The Pats have allowed an average of 5.7 second-half points in their last six games, which is an indication that Bill Belichick and his coaching staff are making sound in-game and halftime adjustments. In fact, New England has outscored opponents 111-34 in the second half over their past six games so it’ll be interesting to see how Sunday’s game plays out. If the Giants build a first-half lead, can they sustain it?

5. How effective will the “Gronk” be?
At this point the question isn’t whether Rob Gronkowsi will play but rather how effective will he be. This isn’t the same situation as last year with Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey, who never really had a realistic shot of playing in the Super Bowl after suffering a high ankle sprain in the AFC championship game, because Gronk is going to play. But remember two years ago when Colts’ defensive end Dwight Freeney tore a ligament in his right ankle late in the AFC title game versus the Jets, played in the Super Bowl but was largely ineffective? Will Gronk be the same player he was for the Pats during the regular season or will he serve as merely a decoy in passing situations? We already know that Gronkowski will likely need his left ankle scoped following Sunday’s game so it’s not unrealistic to believe he could be severely limited. Granted, the Pats do have Aaron Hernandez, who not unlike Gronkowski is a weapon from the slot or tight end position. But the “Gronk” was nearly unstoppable this season and is a major mismatch against defensive backs and linebackers. The Patriots need him to be as healthy as possible if their offense is going to fire on all cylinders.

Is anyone else sick of hearing about these so-called factors as it pertains to Super Bowl XLV? It’s enough to make someone stab their own neck with a soldering iron.

1. The Steelers have more experience.
Talk to someone who believes the Steelers will beat the Packers and one of the first things out of their mouths is “the experience factor.” Pittsburgh has it – Green Bay doesn’t. So mark it down: Steelers 52, Packers 3. Experience, baby. But ask the Colts how “the experience factor” worked out for them last year. Peyton Manning had won the Super Bowl four seasons prior and Drew Brees had never played in the big one so naturally, Indy would win. Only they didn’t. When the Patriots beat St. Louis in 2001, the Rams had the experience and they also walked out of the Superdome losers that night. The Bills had more Super Bowl experience than the Cowboys in 1992 and Dallas beat Buffalo 52-17 that year. Experience counts when it comes to making travel arraignments, acquiring enough tickets for family and friends, and dealing with the media. But when the ball is finally kicked off on Sunday, the only thing that matters is which team executes. Everything else – including previous experience – flies out the window.

2. Starks gives the Packers balance.
Over the past month, I’ve written several times on this blog about how running back James Starks has given the Packers’ offense balance, which he has. But when it comes right down to it, I’m not sure how much of an impact Starks will have for Green Bay on Sunday. You don’t attack the Steelers on the ground – you attack them through the air. The Packers’ strength offensively is their passing game and Mike McCarthy should want the ball in Aaron Rodgers’ hands and not Starks’. That’s not to say that Starks won’t be used because he will. But let’s not make him out to be the X-factor when everyone knows that the Steelers can be had through the air. I expect to see plenty of four-and-five receiver sets for the Packers and for them to get Pittsburgh in its nickel and dime sets early and often. There’s no reason to keep the Steelers’ base defense on the field when that’s how they can beat you. If/when the Packers build a lead in the second half, then I expect to see Starks.

3. Whether or not Pouncey plays.
I know someone is dying to take my point about Maurkice Pouncey’s injury out of context, but understand my point before you rip my face off in the comments section. Pouncey told the NFL Network’s Deion Sanders on Tuesday that he “most definitely” would attempt to play on Sunday. He also noted that there was roughly a 75% chance he would suit up against the Packers, giving hope to Steeler fans that their best offensive lineman will be in action on Super Bowl Sunday. But first of all, I think this is a ploy by the Steelers in efforts to throw the Packers off. Pittsburgh is trying to maintain a competitive advantage and that means staying optimistic about Pouncey’s playing chances. Who knows – maybe Pouncey will play and play well. But it would be a medical marvel if he did. High ankle sprains are usually a 4-6 week injury depending on the severity of the sprain. (Don’t worry, I Googled that information so you know it’s solid.) If that’s the case, then it’s highly unlikely that Pouncey will be effective, if he even plays at all. Dwight Freeney dealt with a similar injury before last year’s Super Bowl and while he played well in the first half, the long layoff at halftime killed him and he spent most of the third and fourth quarters on the sidelines. But Pittsburgh fans shouldn’t fret because Doug Legursky played well in the AFC title game and could probably start for a lot of teams. That’s not to say that Pouncey’s injury isn’t a factor because it is – especially considering Packers’ NT B.J. Raji has been a dominant force this postseason. But if he plays, he probably will be limited. If he doesn’t, then Legursky is at least capable of having a good game. Either way, the situation isn’t worth agonizing over every…single…minute…of…every…single…day leading up to the game.

4. Who’s favored and who’s the underdog.
I’ll admit I was surprised to see that Pittsburgh was the underdog in this matchup. I even thought to myself, “The Steelers get to play the underdog role? Bet next month’s rent on Pittsburgh. Let it riiiiiiiiiiiide!” But there’s no sense getting caught up in which team is favored and which is the underdog. Oddsmakers know that the Packers have been the public’s spunky sixth-seeded darlings since the postseason began, so of course they’re going to favor Green Bay. Not only are the Packers a great team and could easily win outright, they also have the majority of the public’s backing. Plus, oddsmakers know that morons like me will look at the line and think, “Give me the points with the Steelers annnnnnddddd let it riiiiiiiiiiiiide!” therefore creating the balanced action that they want on the biggest game of the year. So while the Steelers probably love playing the underdog role, the spread truly doesn’t mean anything in the end when it comes to finding an advantage for either team.

Comment Fodder: What are some other overrated factors that you’re tired of hearing about? I’ll totally except anything about Troy Polamalu and Clay Matthews’ hair.

Injured Colts’ defensive end Dwight Freeney was hoping to test his injured ankle on Friday during practice, but it didn’t happen as he was unable to hit the field. He didn’t practice once during the last two weeks and is listed as questionable on the Colts’ injury report for Super Bowl XLIV.

On Tuesday, Freeney told the media that the pain in his ankle was subsiding and that it felt better each day. Although he hasn’t practiced, it doesn’t mean that he won’t suit up on Super Bowl Sunday and he still has two more nights to treat the ankle so you never know how he’ll feel in two days.

That said, I highly doubt that he’ll play in Indy’s base defense and will likely be limited throughout the game. The best case for him and the Colts is if he’s able to play in obvious passing situations and provide a decent rush on Drew Brees but even then, it’s doubtful that Freeney will be that effective given that he’s a speed rusher and his ankle won’t be 100%.

As I’ve written all week, if Freeney is limited the Saints have a huge advantage because they can concentrate on slowing down Robert Mathis and won’t have to worry about keeping an extra blocker in. They can use their full complement of offensive weapons, which is dangerous considering how explosive their offense can be. Brees might have a field day on Sunday if the Colts can’t figure out a way to drum up some pressure without Freeney.

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It’s an understatement to say that the Saints have battered opposing quarterbacks this postseason. In fact, ESPN.com reports that in two games, New Orleans put 11 hits on Kurt Warner and Brett Favre in its wins over the Cardinals and Vikings over the past two weeks.

Per the report, six of the hits came through the middle of the line, with the other five coming around the ends. Five of the hits were from unblocked defenders, three were from defenders beating blocks and three were coverage sacks where the quarterback held the ball for over five seconds.

What’s interesting is that seven of the 11 hits came when the Saints had five or more defensive backs on the field, meaning Gregg Williams isn’t necessarily putting his cornerbacks on islands when he sends pressure. Also, five of the 11 hits came in the first quarter, but just two hits came in the fourth, which obviously suggests that Williams is willing to take more gambles earlier in the game but not in crunch time when scores are vital.

In last weekend’s AFC Championship, the Jets pressured Peyton Manning with some success early in the game, but the Colts neutralized New York’s aggressiveness towards the end of the first half when they switched to the no-huddle. Manning is highly skilled at getting the ball out of his hand early and putting the ball in the air before his receivers are out of their breaks. That’s part of what makes him so effective and how he burns opponents with the passing game.

By looking at the stats, it appears that Williams is aggressive but isn’t reckless with his pressure. He’ll send multiple defenders at the opposing quarterback, but will blanket coverage over the top so that his defensive backs won’t get beat deep. No quarterback likes defenders in his face, so if the Saints can drum up pressure up the middle they might have success against Manning early on. But the key is whether or not they can produce stops in the second half when Williams isn’t as aggressive. The Jets couldn’t and that’s why they’ll be at home next Sunday instead of in Miami.

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In safeties Antonie Bethea and Melvin Bullitt, the Colts have two players in their defensive backfield that are steady, underrated and are strong against the run.

But the takeaway from the above sentence is “strong against the run.” That doesn’t mean that Bethea and Bullitt are key factors in pass coverage and in fact, they’re not. They’re adequate against the pass at best, which is why some teams have had success attacking the seams of the Colts’ defense with their tight ends.

The Saints have a playmaker at tight end in Jeremy Shockey, a player that, when healthy, is a mismatch in coverage because of his size, speed and pass-catching ability. He would definitely be a mismatch in coverage against Bethea and Bullitt, especially considering that the two safeties also have to defend the run and the rest of the weapons that New Orleans has in its arsenal.

But the problem is that Shockey can never stay healthy and at least for the moment, he isn’t healthy now. Over the past month, he’s battled toe and knee injuries and hasn’t been 100%. In fact, head coach Sean Payton said that Shockey was on a limited snap count in last Sunday’s NFC Championship Game and that’s why the tight end caught just one pass for nine yards.

If Shockey can get healthy over the next two weeks, he could be the kind of X-factor that the Saints will need to beat the Colts. David Thomas is a fine replacement at tight end of Shockey is limited again, but he’s not the type of game-changer that Shockey is when he’s playing at full strength. If he’s at 100%, Drew Brees might have success attacking the middle of Indy’s defense with Shockey being the main weapon in the Saints’ passing game.

But if he resembles the one-legged man again like he did last week, then the Colts will catch a break and will likely turn their attention to stopping Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and the rest of New Orleans’ outside pass threats.

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]]> https://www.scoresreport.com/2010/02/02/how-will-freeney%e2%80%99s-injury-affect-the-super-bowl/ Tue, 02 Feb 2010 17:00:16 +0000 https://www.scoresreport.com/?p=33822

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that Colts’ defensive end Dwight Freeney has a torn ligament in his injured right ankle, which means he could wind up missing Super Bowl XLIV.

This is the biggest game of the year and the Colts could be without their top pass rusher. This is devastating news for Indy to say the least and even if he does tough it out and play, he probably won’t be at 100%.

Freeney led the Colts with 13.5 sacks and along with Robert Mathis, gave the team a fierce pass rush – one that is supposed to keep Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees on edge. The best way to disrupt an opposing team’s offensive game plan is to get in the quarterback’s face and make him throw the ball sooner than he intends. That same notion can be applied to Brees and the Saints, who looked like a completely different offense in a Week 14 loss to the Cowboys, thanks to DeMarcus Ware and Dallas’ explosive pass rush.

If Freeney is limited on Sunday or misses the game entirely, then Brees should be more comfortable in the pocket, which is a scary thought for the Colts. In Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey, the Saints have a plethora of weapons for Brees to use to attack Indy’s secondary. And if he has all day to throw, then Brees should be able to strike for big plays and keep the Colts on their heels the entire game.

Another thing to keep in mind is that if Freeney can’t play, then the Saints won’t have to keep extra blockers in to keep protect Brees. With Freeney and Mathis both on the field, teams usually have to keep an extra blocker in (usually a running back) to help keep their quarterback upright. But with just Mathis to worry about, the Saints can roll their backs into the flats or over the middle, and we all know what Reggie Bush can do in open space. Obviously the Saints are at an advantage when Bush is on the field, compared to a blocking back like Pierre Thomas or Mike Bell.

Granted, it’s a ridiculous notion to suggest that one player (outside of the quarterback) can change the course of an entire game, but it would be a mistake to dismiss how vital Freeney is to the Colts’ defense. He’s a game-changer who relies on his speed to disrupt the flow of an opponent’s offense and if he can’t play, Indy will be limited in what it can do in its game plan come Sunday. Obviously this injury has no affect on Peyton Manning and the Colts’ offense, but given how explosive the Saints are, Freeney is the one player Indy can’t afford to lose.

The best-case scenario for the Colts would be if Freeney doesn’t practice all week and his ankle feels better by Sunday. But if he does have a tear, then it’s going to take longer than six days for the injury to heel. He has already admitted that the injury hasn’t improved over the last week and he has yet to practice.

With that in mind, I’m sure the Colts are already preparing for the inevitable: That they might be without their best defensive player for Super Bowl Sunday.

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After going through their first real practice on Thursday in preparation for the Colts and Super Bowl XLIV, they released a pretty lengthy injury report with several key names on it.

Starters Jeremy Shockey (knee), Darren Sharper (knee), Jonathan Vilma (knee) and Will Smith (groin) were all on Thursday’s injury report, as well as cornerbacks Randall Gay and Malcolm Jenkins, running back Lynell Hamilton, kick returner Courtney Roby and offensive lineman Zach Streif.

Head coach Sean Payton indicated that Shockey received good news from his visit with the acclaimed Dr. James Andrews earlier this week and that there hasn’t been a setback with the tight end’s knee. Shockey said on Thursday that he’s prepared to play with pain and that he’ll do everything he can, “even if that requires hurting myself.”

The injuries to Sharper, Vilma, Smith and the rest of the Saints appear to be minor and as of right now, there is no threat to them missing the Super Bowl. At least, Payton and the rest of New Orleans better hope so.

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