Bookmark this page and check back periodically for my thoughts as I watch the scores roll in on Thursday. There are at least 10 bubble teams in action today, starting with Providence/Louisville in the Big East quarterfinals.

1:32 AM: I’m going to hit the hay. I’ll be back tomorrow at 12 PM ET to start this all again. New Mexico is currently down seven to Wyoming with two minutes to play, so their bubble might be bursting tonight. It was a great day of basketball capped by one of the best games I’ve ever seen.

1:25 AM: The Orangemen finally prevailed, 127-117 (6 OT). Syracuse plays a ton of zone and I think that gave them an advantage in a game of this length. When you’re playing man to man, you have to go from side to side (of the half court) to cover your guy. When you’re in a zone, you just cover an area, so there’s less running involved. Over the course of a regular 40-minute game, it doesn’t make that much of a difference, but if you give a player the choice of playing 70 minutes of man-to-man or 70 minutes of zone, they’ll pick zone. Zone simply requires less effort, and I think the Orangemen had more in the tank at the end. I’m exhausted and I didn’t play a minute. What a great game…

1:07 AM: This is insane. This UConn/Syracuse game just went to a 6TH OVERTIME! Forget about the winner having any gas left in the tank for tomorrow night. Hell, they might not even show up to play.

12:57 AM: Bill Rafferty with the line of the night, “These guys are so tired they’re going to need cabs to get to the other end of the court.” A.J. Price has been great in the last two OTs.

12:47 AM: Wow, what a game in New York. UConn and Syracuse are in a 5TH OVERTIME. My TiVo ran out of space at the end of the second overtime, so I checked the internet to see who won and I saw that the game was still going on. So I flipped it on and watched the 4th OT. Hasheem Thabeet just fouled out, but Syracuse couldn’t finish at the rim with time winding down. Five more minutes.

11:06 PM: USC just beat Cal in a tight one, so the Trojans are still alive for an NCAA berth. Mizzou is controlling its game against Texas Tech as is Boston College in its game versus Virginia. UConn and Syracuse are battling with about nine minutes left on ESPN. The Huskies are up two and probably need the win if they hope to secure a #1 seed next week.

10:00 PM: USC is beating Cal by 15 at halftime. The Trojans are a team that could play their way into a bid with a few wins in the Pac-10 tourney. Their RPI (61) and SOS (27) aren’t bad, but they’re 0-4 against Top 25 RPI teams.

9:17 PM: Down goes Pitt! Down goes Oklahoma! The Panthers lost to a very good West Virginia team that was helped by DeJuan Blair’s foul trouble. Watch out for the Mountaineers in the tourney. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State nipped Oklahoma in a great game, which means that the top two seeds in the Big 12 tourney have been knocked out (and Missouri has yet to play). OSU was already in, but now the door is open for a team like Baylor or Texas Tech to get a bid by winning the tourney. The other three teams still alive – OSU, Mizzou and Texas — are already in. In the ACC, Maryland beat NC State to keep the Terps’ slim NCAA hopes alive. They really need to win another game or two to have a legit shot.

7:39 PM: West Virginia is giving Pitt a tough game, but if you believe Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, the Mountaineers are the #9 team in the nation. Washington beat Stanford, San Diego State put away UNLV (bad news for the other bubble teams), Maryland is in a tight game against NC State (a game that they MUST win) and Oklahoma State is giving Oklahoma a good run.

6:36 PM: Stanford is giving #10 Washington a good game. The Huskies lead by three at halftime. Also, San Diego St. is up 15 on projected #10-seed UNLV, so a win might put them in.

6:26 PM: It looks like the three Big Ten teams on the bubble took care of business today. Penn State is currently blowing out Indiana, while Michigan and Minnesota both won earlier today. Does this mean that the conference will get eight bids? Well, Joe Lunardi had them projected to get eight before today’s action, so you’d have to believe that it’s an even better bet now. As for that Wisconsin/Ohio State game tomorrow, Lunardi had them both projected to be #9 seeds, so the loser should still be safe. Minnesota has Michigan State, Michigan faces Illinois and Penn State will go on to face Purdue. Will the committee hold it against any of these teams if they lose to that kind of competition? Maybe they just need to show up and play a good game. Time will tell.

There’s a lull in the games here as the Big East and ACC take a break for the news on the East Coast. Things will pick up in a half hour or so.

5:18 PM: Well, KSU fell to Texas down the stretch and the Wildcats are out.

5:06 PM: Texas and Kansas State are in a dogfight. They’re tied with 2:20 to play. The game is on ESPN2 (as a part of its bonus coverage). The Wildcats really need a win to get back in to the bubble conversation.

4:46 PM: Great finish in New York! Villanova’s Reggie Redding drove into the lane and Jerel McNeal completely lost track of Dwayne Anderson who snuck behind him and caught the feed from Redding for the game-winning buzzer-beater. McNeal also made a mental error on Marquette’s previous possession. His team was up one and there was a four second difference between the shot clock and the game clock. He took the ball to the hole with 0:17 remaining and took a shot with 15 ticks left on the game clock. In that situation you have to let the clock run down as much as possible. With the missed shot, he gave Nova an opportunity to get the ball up court and get a good shot. Meanwhile, Arizona is down eight with under two minutes to play. Things are looking rough for the Wildcats. They are really on the hot seat with a loss.

4:38 PM: We had some technical problems for a bit — sorry. In the meantime, Marquette climbed back into the game and has tied it with 2:13 to play (on ESPN). ASU holds a six-point lead over Arizona with eight minutes to play.

3:02 PM: Michigan has jumped all over Iowa, 25-15, midway through the first half. Villanova leads Marquette by 12. The Eagles just aren’t the same team without Dominic James, though that’s not a big surprise.

2:34 PM: Well, Baylor just beat Kansas. I don’t think the Jayhawks are a legit Final Four team. Bracket-wise, I wouldn’t feel good about having them go that far. They’ve lost two of their last three and, although they beat Oklahoma in late February, the Sooners were without Blake Griffin. Michigan/Iowa is about to tip off on ESPN2. Marquette/Villanova is early in the first half as well.

2:14 PM: Wow, Minnesota closed with a 16-4 run to get past Northwestern. I think that win will be enough to get the Gophers in barring a surprise. Joe Lunardi (ESPN Bracketologist) had Minnesota as an #11 seed before the win. Meanwhile, Kansas is in a dogfight with Baylor on ESPN2.

2:05 PM: Digger Phelps said on the pregame show that UConn is a “lock” for a #1 seed and I disagree. Oklahoma already has a better RPI (and a tougher schedule), and Michigan State is just behind the Huskies (with a MUCH tougher schedule). Obviously, if UConn wins the Big East Championship, they’ll get a #1 seed, and they might move ahead of Pitt with a potential win over the Panthers in the semis, but if they lose to Syracuse or Pitt, I think they end up as a #2 seed, especially if the Sooners and/or the Spartans win their conference tournament.

1:48 PM: Providence didn’t really come out to play, and Len Elmore just said the same thing about yesterday’s game against DePaul. Down 14 with under four minutes to play. Good news for the other bubble teams. Minnesota is in a tight one against Northwestern (50-49, 3:46 to play), and the Gophers are really going to be on the hot seat if they lose that one. Miami is just getting spanked by Virginia Tech. I think the Hokies will get a bid if they beat North Carolina tomorrow.

1:34 PM: Kansas is struggling with Baylor but has made a run. It’s tough to get a read on the Jayhawks. They had great back-to-back wins against Oklahoma and Missouri, but then they go and lose to Texas Tech and now they’re trailing Baylor. We’ll see if they can get it straightened out in the second half.

1:27 PM: It was a really sloppy first half in the Providence/Louisville game — 25 combined turnovers. Still, the Friars had to be happy to be in the game after giving the ball away 15 times in the first 20 minutes. Providence really needs this one to get a bid. Luckily for the Friars, Terrence Williams has not played well.

The bottom line is, if you’re a fan of one of those other teams on the bubble, you want Providence to lose, and lose bad.

Strap ‘em up, kids. Championship Week is upon us!

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s square off tonight in the final of the WCC tourney (9 PM ET, and why isn’t this game on national television?), and with the Gaels’ #45 RPI, they could really use a win to guarantee a NCAA tourney berth. The good news is that their leading scorer, Patrick Mills, is back, scoring 12 points in 35 minutes in yesterday’s win over Portland. If Saint Mary’s loses to the ‘Zags, it would put the Gaels squarely on the bubble. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Saint Mary’s as a #10 seed, but I think that assumes that the committee will take Mills’ injury into account. After all, he was out of the lineup for three of the team’s five losses. Lunardi says that the Gaels are safe, but they don’t have a marquee win and are just 2-2 against the RPI top 50, so anything can happen.

But let’s move on to the “major” conference tournaments that will take place this week. I’m going to tackle these one-by-one in the order of Jeff Sagarin’s conference rankings.

ACC

Lunardi projects six ACC teams – UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State and Boston College – to make the Dance, and of those teams only BC really has anything to worry about. The Eagles (#57 RPI) are probably safe, but a first round loss on Thursday against Virginia might make BC squirm a bit on Selection Sunday.

Miami, Maryland and Virginia Tech are three teams that could play themselves into an NCAA berth with a nice ACC tourney run. What do I mean by “a nice run”? Well, Virginia Tech and Miami square off on Thursday, so if whomever wins gives North Carolina a great game on Friday, that might be enough. The Hurricanes are a bit closer than the Hokies, so VT would probably have to pull the upset against the Tar Heels to earn a bid. Miami could potentially get in with an 18-12 record and a #53 RPI (against the 26th-toughest schedule) if they were to lose to North Carolina.

Meanwhile, Maryland has to beat N.C. State on Thursday and then (at least) pull the upset against the seemingly vulnerable Demon Deacons on Friday.

As far as #1 seeds go, North Carolina pretty much sewed one up with their second win against Duke on Sunday. Neither the Blue Devils nor Demon Deacons would seem to have a shot at one of the other three #1 seeds. It’s conceivable that Duke would be able to make a case if they win the ACC Tournament (beating Wake and UNC in the process) and a few of the teams ranked ahead of them have poor conference showings. Despite the brutal schedule (#3) and stellar RPI (3), Duke is realistically shooting for a #2 or #3 seed.

ACC Tournament bracket

BIG TEN

It’s funny, because the conventional wisdom is that the Big Ten is down this season, but it is 2nd in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings and Lunardi projects eight Big Ten teams to make the NCAA tournament, the most of any conference. The list includes Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State. Three of those teams – Penn St., Minnesota and Michigan – play in the first round on Thursday and they really need a win (against Indiana, Northwestern and Iowa, respectively) to keep their postseason hopes alive.

In the next round, Minnesota would need to compete with Michigan State, Michigan with Illinois and Penn State with Purdue to clinch a spot. If any of these teams are blown out in the next round, they’ll be right back on the bubble. With an RPI of 38, the Badgers look to be safe, but a win against Ohio State would seal a bid (and vice versa, if the Buckeyes were to win).

The only team with a legitimate shot at a #1 seed is Michigan State. The Spartans have the #6 RPI and the 8th-toughest schedule, so if they win the Big Ten tourney, they have a great shot to move up to the top line.

Big Ten Tournament bracket

BIG EAST

The Big East Championship serves as the actual championship for the conference –they don’t recognize a “regular season” champion. It kicks off on Tuesday with the #9-#16 seeds (on BIGEAST.tv) and then on Wednesday the #5-#8 seeds – Marquette, Syracuse, West Virigina and Providence – start play. At 8-10 in conference, Cincinnati is out barring an unlikely four wins in four days scenario. Lunardi currently projects West Virginia as a #7 seed, so they are safe. Likewise, Syracuse (#6 seed) and Marquette (#7 seed) are both safely in.

So the Big East team that can help itself the most is Providence. Lunardi projects the Friars to miss the cut, and with an 18-12 record and a #70 RPI, it’s easy to see why. However, if Providence can beat the winner of the Cincinnati/DePaul game in convincing fashion and then give Louisville a great game, it might be enough to earn them a bid. After all, the Friars did beat #1 Pitt just two weeks ago. But a near win against Louisville probably won’t be enough; realistically, Providence needs to beat Louisville to secure a berth. That would give the Friars 20 wins and a couple of marquee victories over two of the top teams in the nation.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are three Big East teams — Louisville, Pitt and UConn — that have a legitimate shot at a #1 seed. In fact, Lunardi projects all three as #1 seeds right now, but it is likely that one or more will fall off as the Big East Championship progresses. The Huskies seem to be on the most tenuous footing, given their two head-to-head losses against Pitt in the last three weeks. If both teams survive, Pitt and UConn are projected to meet on Friday, with the winner having a golden opportunity to clinch a #1 seed by winning the next night as well.

Big East Championship bracket

PAC-10

Lunardi says that four Pac-10 teams – Washington, UCLA, Cal and Arizona St. – are already in, while Arizona is holding on for dear life. In fact, he says that they are the very last team in. The Wildcats don’t have a great RPI (52), but their SOS (#32) works in their favor.

Arizona is in a tough spot as the #5 seed in the conference tourney because they play a good team (ASU) right off the bat. A win would probably secure a berth, but a loss would probably knock them out. (And you can bet that after living in Arizona’s considerable hoops shadow for years, that the Sun Devils would like nothing more than to be the ones to knock their arch-rival out of the postseason.)

On the flip side, it’s conceivable that a tournament win would push Washington up to the next line. The Huskies have a strong RPI (13) and have played a tough schedule (#14), so if they can beat UCLA or Cal in the Pac-10 final, they may be rewarded with a #2 seed.

Pac-10 Tournament bracket

BIG 12

Joe Lunardi currently projects six Big 12 teams – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma St. – to make the NCAA tournament. Those teams are seeded #9 or above, so all six would seem to be safely in. The team that can play its way into the tournament is Kansas State. The Wildcats have a 21-10 record, but their RPI (#76) and schedule (#111) are lacking. After a string of victories that included wins against Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M in late January/early February, the Wildcats have gone 4-3 over their last seven, including losses to Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma St. What’s worse, there isn’t a good win amongst the four in that stretch. They are likely to play Texas on Thursday, and that’s absolutely a must-win game.

If things break the right way, both Kansas and Oklahoma could play themselves into a #1 seed. It would help if they faced each other in the tourney final, and if they beat good competition on the way there (Oklahoma St., Missouri for OU and Texas for the Jayhawks). With a Big 12 tourney win, I think the Sooners have a great shot at a #1 seed if the committee takes into account their 0-2 record without POY candidate Blake Griffin, who was out with a concussion.

Big 12 Championship bracket

SEC

According to Jeff Sagarin, the Southeastern Conference is a good bit weaker than any of the other five majors, and this makes sense when Lunardi only picks three SEC teams to make the tourney. (That’s one fewer than the Mountain West!) The fact of the matter is that the SEC is much more of a football conference than it is a basketball conference right now.

LSU and Tennessee are safely in, and Lunardi projects South Carolina to be a #12 seed so the Gamecocks (along with the Gators) are very much on the bubble. South Carolina needs to win its game on Friday (vs. the winner of the Georgia/Miss. St. game) and could seal a bid with a win (or at least a good showing) in a potential matchup with LSU on Saturday. Regardless of whom they play, the Gamecocks would probably get a berth with two wins in the SEC tourney. Likewise, Florida can play themselves into strong consideration with wins against Arkansas and a pretty good Auburn team. Clearly, a third win (over Tennessee?) would put the Gators back in the Big Dance.

Both LSU and Tennessee are currently projected to be #6 seeds, but a tourney championship for either team could bump the winner up a line or two, especially if the two teams square off in the final.

SEC Tournament bracket

The Big East (apparently) doesn’t have a regular season championship. They call their postseason tourney the Big East Conference Championship. The “bracketologists” over ESPN project that the conference will get eight bids — UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia and Providence, with the Friars being one of the last teams in. That leaves Cincinnati and Notre Dame on the outside looking in.

Cincy plays at South Florida and at home against Seton Hall this week, so with two wins, they would finish the regular season at 20-11 and 10-8 in conference. If that happens, it would be tough for the selection committee to leave them out. However, they are just 1-6 against Top 25 teams and the one win was against an overrated Georgetown team. Basically, they’ve been winning games that they should win, but aren’t beating any “superior” opponents. They don’t have a single marquee win on the season, so unless they win out and make some noise in the Big East tourney, they may not get a bid.

Notre Dame is in an even tougher position. The Irish are 7-9 and 16-12 on the season. They did beat Texas early in the season and spanked Louisville by 33 in February, so a win tonight against Villanova and another win on Friday at St. John’s might put the Irish back in the hunt. They’d be 9-9 in conference, so if they were to win a few games in the conference tourney (including a win against UConn, Pitt or Louisville), they would be back in the conversation.

Providence needs to be careful not to close out the season with back to back losses. They visit a good Villanova team on Thursday and will probably enter the conference tourney at 10-8 in the conference (18-12 overall). An early exit in the tourney might spell doom for the Friars.

For the sixth time in less than eight weeks, the #1 team in the nation has lost. This time it was #1 Pittsburgh losing to unranked, on-the-bubble Providence.

Weyinmi Efejuku scored 16 points for Providence, which took a 20-point lead and then turned back one last rally by No. 1 Pittsburgh for an 81-73 victory Tuesday night, the school’s second win ever over a top-ranked team.

The victory greatly improves the at-large resume for the Friars (17-11, 9-7), who are in sixth place in the 16-team Big East, a league considered by most as the toughest in the country.

“I think they made a big step to be able to continue their collegiate careers tonight,” [Keno] Davis said of his seniors after their final home game. “We’re in a pretty good situation: we’re in the top half of the best conference in the country. It puts us in the conversation. I’m sure if we had lost, they wouldn’t be talking about us anymore.”

This is a huge win for the Friars, but it’s only the team’s second win against a ranked opponent this season. Providence is just 2-5 against Top 25 opponents, so they’re not out of the woods yet. A win against #12 Villanova on March 5 would certainly help, but the game is on the road. If they lose to the Wildcats (or Rutgers on March 1), they’ll also need to win a game or two in the Big East tournament to get a bid.