2010 Preakness Stakes Predictions

Anthony Stalter — Sat, 15 May 2010 19:47:34 +0000

All right, so I was a tad off in my Kentucky Derby predictions two weeks ago. Sidney’s Candy (the colt I predicted to win) ran out of gas down the stretch and I’m pretty sure Line of David (my prediction to show) still hasn’t come out of the posts yet.

That said, my choice of Paddy O’prado to place was partly correct as he finished in the money, but third instead of my prediction of second. Had he not tired down the stretch, he would have held off Ice Box for second place, but I was happy that at least one of my predictions finished in the money. I also noted that Conveyance would probably jump out to a big lead at the front – which he did – but tire down the stretch (which he also did). But that prediction doesn’t really count for anything; I’m just trying to make myself feel a little better considering the picks didn’t pan out.

I’ll try to do better today with the Preakness, as the second leg of the Triple Crown takes place at 6:15PM ET.

Win: Lookin at Lucky (3/1)
Lookin at Lucky was the favorite heading into the Kentucky Derby, but he fought traffic out at the start and finished a disappointing sixth. That said, he spotted the field over 20 lengths, battled through traffic and still managed to finish sixth. The last horse to pull off a similar feat was Curlin in 2007, who lost to Street Sense at the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby and then won the Preakness two weeks later. Had Lucky not drawn the awful rail position for the Derby, we might have seen a different outcome. But now that he is coming out of the No. 7 post, he shouldn’t have to battle as much traffic at the start and he can run his race throughout. If he does that, he beats the field.

Place: Super Saver (2/1)
Super Saver is a versatile runner in that he can rally or stalk the pace, which is one of the keys in the Preakness. He’s coming off a victory at the Derby, is being ridden by elite jockey Calvin Borel and has a best Beyer of 104. It’s probably foolish of my to bet against Borel (who won the Preakness aboard Rachel Alexandra last year), but I still think Lookin at Lucky is the better horse. That said, with Super Saver’s credentials I wouldn’t be surprised if he emerged victorious today.

Show: First Dude (20/1)
This is my long shot sleeper today. First Dude hasn’t run in five weeks, which is problematic, but in two Grade 1 stakes races this year, he finished fifth and third. The mere fact that he’s run against good competition this year and has done well is encouraging, and even though he doesn’t have a stakes win to show for it, there’s something about him that’s special. I don’t think he has what it takes to overcome Lookin at Lucky or Super Saver, but I like him to upset the rest of the field and finish in the money.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Paddy O’prado, Dublin and/or Jackson Bend finished in the money today either.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

2010 Kentucky Derby Predictions

Anthony Stalter — Sat, 01 May 2010 21:16:49 +0000

We don’t cover much horse racing here at The Scores Report, but I always take upon myself to hand out predictions for the Triple Crown races because I know our readers depend on them. (What? They don’t? Well to hell with them then.)

It’s apparently going to be a sloppy track at Churchill Downs today, which means that it’s really anyone’s race. Last year, 50/1 long shot Mine That Bird shocked the field by winning on a sloppy track, so who knows what will happen this evening.

Here is my crack at the top 3:

Win: Sidney’s Candy (9/1)
Sidney’s Candy doesn’t have a lot of experience on dirt tracks, but he’s already beaten Lookin at Lucky (the Derby favorite) once this year and is coming off three straight wins. He reportedly looked great in workouts this week, which helps ease the concerns about his ability to compete on a dirt track. He’ll start from the No. 20 post position, which I’m indifferent about. I think he’ll lead at some point and my money is on him being ahead at the finish.

Place: Paddy O’prado (10/1)
Paddy O’prado has already competed in three races this year at distances of 1 1/8 miles, which will certainly help him at the Kentucky Derby. The only problem is that he finished seventh in his only dirt race, albeit on a sloppy track in poor conditions. He claimed victory at the G3 Palm Beach on March 6 and will be ridden by jockey Kent Desormeaux, who has three Kentucky Derby victories under his belt.

Show: Line of David (20/1)
This is my sleeper today. Line of David will start of the No. 5 post position, which has produced 12 Derby winners since 1900. He also went from allowance winner to a Grade 1 winner in a smoothness transition and seems like a breakout candidate after he upset the field at the Arkansas Derby. I don’t think he has enough to win wire to wire (which is almost impossible to do at the Kentucky Derby), but I like him to finish in the money.

Keep your eye on:

There is something about these horses that I like as well, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish in the money.

Lookin at Lucky (7/1)
He’s the clear favorite, but I just don’t like his starting position and the fact that he lost to Sidney’s Candy earlier in the year. The rail position hasn’t produced a winner since 1937.

Super Saver (7/1)
Super Saver seems due for a breakout and he has one huge advantage in jockey Calvin Borel, who has won two of the last three Kentucky Derby races. It seems like causal bettors are all over this horse because of Borel.

Conveyance (30/1)
I absolutely love this speedhorse, but they tend to struggle at the Derby because of the distance. I wouldn’t be surprised if he jumped out to a big lead at the front, but that backstretch is a killer for fast horses.

Awesome Act (11/1)
Awesome Act is suited to run long-distances and has shown flashes of being able to rally late.

Ice Box (8/1)
Ice Box’s trainer, Nick Zito, has already won two Kentucky Derby races and the 3-year-old colt has shown the ability to close on leaders down the stretch. The problem is that he’s coming off a six-week layoff.

American Lion (22/1)
American Lion has proven that he can run on dirt, but trainer Eoin Hartly has never won a Derby.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Paddy O’prado – The Scores Report – The National Sports Blog

2010 Preakness Stakes Predictions

2010 Kentucky Derby Predictions