The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to pay per-view today with UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun, which features five fights on the main card. Here is a breakdown of each fight and who I expect to win.
Light Heavyweight Championship – Lyoto Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-3): Machida has quickly emerged as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world due to his style of fighting. Machida has brought a true karate style to the octagon and made it look like a dominant way of fighting. His last two fights have been impressive victories over Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans to win the UFC title. Machida likes to counter-strike, which works well in this fight as Rua likes to push the pace and be the aggressive fighter. Rua has gotten better with each fight inside the cage, but today’s fight doesn’t bode well for him. Machida has quicker strikes and should be able to pick Rua apart to score a TKO victory in the third round over a gassed Rua.
Heavyweight Bout – Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6) – The co-headliner features two heavyweight contenders. Velasquez is being groomed to be a threat to Brock Lesnar’s heavyweight title. The Mexican born fighter has used his wrestling background to dominate his opponents and use ground-and-pound striking to quickly end fights. His last fight, a decision win over Cheick Kongo, Velasquez was able to get Kongo to the ground and dictate the pacing of the fight. Velasquez was hit with some big punches in the fight and was tested for the first time, but passed the test. Rothwell was a former IFL heavyweight champion and has faced some tough opponents, but doesn’t have a real marquee win in his lengthy career. Rothwell can win with a big punch, but Velasquez is likely to get this fight to the ground, where he will control Rothwell and earn a decision or TKO victory.
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