I do like that after the wicked around-the-back/crossover move, he was looking to pass. He’s going to be a good one.

The best shot of Wall’s punch is at around the 1:15 mark, while the best view of Ilgauskas’ elbow is at around the 1:30 mark. No one likes to get hit in the face, but Wall needs to keep a cool head there. He really hurt his team by getting ejected.

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

Ty Lawson looks like a star. He is #13 in this group in EPM, so if he can continue to post big numbers in bigger minutes he’s poised to join the Top 10 sometime soon.

Kyle Lowry isn’t too far behind him. It’s not clear if Houston has decided that Lowry is their point guard of the future, but he is #16 in EPM and is well above average in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Brandon Jennings can still become a Top 10 point guard. Two years ago, I would have said that Jennings would have to drastically change his game to join the elite group of point guards, but with the way Rose, Westbrook and Curry have emerged, he can continue to be himself. One thing I’ve noticed with his game is that he has a tough time finishing around the hoop when he gets bumped, which is something that Westbrook and Rose excel at. Jennings needs to master the floater — that way, he can use his quickness to get into the lane pretty much any time he wants, and then get his shot off without taking a big hit.

Roddy Beaubois is an interesting prospect, but it’s doubtful he’s going to be a quality starter in this league… unless he changes his game to become more of a distributor. He doesn’t need to turn into Jason Kidd, but right now he’s an outlier so he needs to take better care of the ball and create a few more opportunities for teammates. You may notice that Tyreke Evans is very close to Beaubois, but he really needs to play shooting guard.

If John Wall can take care of the ball, he’ll be right there with Deron Williams. For a rookie, Wall’s numbers look great. Sure, he’s a little turnover prone, but no worse that Westbrook, Billups, Collison or Curry. He’s a playmaker, so once he cuts back on the turnovers, his assist-to-turnover ratio really has a chance to skyrocket. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up in the area of Maynor and Lowry with a blue diamond next to his name in a couple of seasons.

Rookies 148, Sophomores 140

Wall racked up a record 22 assists to win the MVP award, Sacramento’s DeMarcus Cousins had 33 points and 14 rebounds, and the rookies rallied to beat the sophomores 148-140 at the NBA’s All-Star weekend Friday night.

Blake Griffin scored 14 points for the rookies in front of the high-flying Clippers forward’s ecstatic home crowd, sticking to his commitment to play in the game even after making the West team for Sunday’s All-Star game.

It should be noted that the Sophs were at something of a disadvantage since they lost Griffin, 2009’s #1 pick, to a season-ending knee injury last season, so now he’s considered a rookie.

There was virtually no defense being played, as the Rookies shot 64% from the field while the Sophs shot almost 55%. James Harden led the Sophs with 30 points while DeJuan Blair chipped in with 28 points and 15 rebounds. Just four of the game’s 18 players failed to score in double digits (Taj Gibson, Brandon Jennings, Derrick Favors and Eric Bledsoe).

Check out this crazy alley-oop from Wall to Griffin:

Chad Ford just released the seventh iteration of his mock draft, and he seems pretty confident in the first eight picks:

1. John Wall, Wizards
2. Evan Turner, Sixers
3. Derrick Favors, Nets
4. Wes Johnson, T-Wolves
5. DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
6. Ekpe Udoh, Warriors
7. Greg Monroe, Pistons
8. Al-Farouq Aminu, Clippers

Barring trades, which are always the toughest to predict, that sequence seems pretty reasonable. Udoh seems to be going a bit high, but Monroe apparently had a bad workout with the Warriors. Some teams place too much emphasis on a one-day workout instead of looking at a player’s overall body of work, but each team has its own method of evaluating prospects.

The mock starts to get dicey around #9 where Ford says that the Jazz have a load of options, but appear to be leaning towards UNC’s Ed Davis.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

With the draft just a few days away, it’s a good time to zip through another consensus mock draft. I’ve pulled in the first 14 picks from ESPN, DraftExpres, NBADraft.net, SI, Yahoo and FanHouse to see if we could come to some sort of consensus as to how the first half of the draft might go. If a player was taken by a certain team in three-plus mock drafts, he is listed in bold with the number of drafts in parenthesis. If there was no consensus, or if he was drafted by a team in two mocks, then he is listed in italics.

(I know the font is a little small, but you can click on the table for a larger version.)

A few random thoughts:

– The top four appear to be set, with Wall, Turner, Favors and Wesley Johnson going to the Wizards, Sixers, Nets and T-Wolves, respectively. These picks intuitively make a lot of sense, which probably means they won’t go this way on Thursday night.

– I listed Cousins at #6 because I don’t think there’s any chance that he falls further than that. But with his “character issues,” who knows. He had a great workout in Sacramento, so I’d bet that he goes #5 at the latest. Besides, Monroe seems like a great fit in Golden State with his basketball IQ and willingness to pass the ball.

– After the #6 pick, this draft seems like a free for all. There are a number of forwards — Aminu, Hayward, Babbitt, Davis and Patterson — all jockeying for position.

– Even though he wasn’t the consensus — there was no conensus — Babbitt seems destined to land in Utah. Aldrich is a possibility there as well.

Photo from fOTOGLIF