ESPN’s Marc Stein lists the top expiring contracts (by dollar value) and discusses the chances of each player being traded before the trade deadline. Things will be especially interesting this season because teams are trying to clear cap space for the next couple of summers (due to the economy and the free agent bonanza of 2010).
1. Jason Kidd (Dallas Mavericks)
Expiring Salary: $21,372,000
Soon to be traded? HIGHLY UNLIKELYAll the regret the Mavericks are supposed to feel about parting with Devin Harris in February’s megatrade for Kidd fails to account for a few key developments in Dallas. 1. Kidd’s arrival, if nothing else, rejuvenated Dirk Nowitzki to the point that Nowitzki carried the Mavs into the playoffs late last season, which might have been the only way Dallas was going to get there. 2. Kidd is quietly playing quite well this season under Rick Carlisle, leading the Mavs to believe that one successful trade addition to fortify their woeful bench — which they presently are pursuing hard by offering up Jerry Stackhouse’s cap-friendly contract — could keep their Nowitzki-Kidd-Josh Howard-Jason Terry core in the West elite. 3. Sources say Dallas has been rejecting all Kidd inquiries because it would prefer to A) put off any drastic alterations until after giving this group an entire season with its new coach and B) play out the season without taking back any salary that extends past the 2009-10 season and into the free-agent bonanza that will follow.
4. Shawn Marion (Miami Heat)
Expiring Salary: $17,810,000
Soon to be traded? SOMEWHAT LIKELYMarion’s fate is one of the hardest for folks around the league to forecast. Some teams remain convinced Miami is determined to keep Marion on its books through the end of the season and then let him walk so the Heat can use the resulting salary-cap space to make a run at Utah’s Carlos Boozer seven months from now. Others believe the Heat are willing to trade Marion between now and February if they can get back “star quality” or at least players they like whose contracts don’t extend beyond 2009-10, when Dwyane Wade hits free agency. The strongest thing we can say is that Marion does have trade suitors (like Toronto) and is the most likely to be moved of the players in our top five. Which might or might not be saying much.
5. Mike Bibby (Atlanta Hawks)
Expiring Salary: $14,983,603
Soon to be traded? UNLIKELYBibby is a good fit with the Hawks fiscally and on the floor, as an accomplished shooter who plays well off star guard Joe Johnson … without taxing Atlanta’s well-documented financial restrictions. It remains to be seen whether the Hawks will defy the skeptics and try to re-sign Bibby at season’s end, but things have gone so well since Bibby arrived — with Atlanta halting its long playoff drought and taking Boston to seven games in the first round, then starting well this season in spite of multiple injuries — that you’d expect them to knock back any trade interest. One scenario floated this week suggested that Portland is putting Bibby proposals together.
I sure hope that the rumors about Portland trying to acquire Mike Bibby aren’t true. He’s shooting well through 15 games this season (46%), but it’s the first time that his accuracy has risen above the 44% mark since the 2004-05 season and it is largely dependent on his current 44% accuracy from long range. He hasn’t shot above 40% from three-point range since the 2002-03 season, so I expect that number to fall back to Earth sometime before the All-Star break.
The Blazers would be wise to avoid that 30 year-old landmine.
