The White Sox are considering shutting down Jake Peavy for the rest of the 2009 season at the risk of further injuring his elbow.

From the Chicago Tribune:

“Believe me, if we fall more and I don’t think deep inside my heart and my guts that we have a chance, I will tell [general manager Ken Williams and pitching coach Don Cooper] to just shut him down and wait for next year,” manager Ozzie Guillen said. “I am honest with myself. It’s funny, because you can tell the fans anything you want. But when you go to sleep and think about how good you are or how bad you are, you’re not lying.”

Time could be against Peavy because the minor-league regular season ends Monday. Double-A Birmingham will advance to the playoffs, so that could be Peavy’s option if he recovers in time to pitch in a minor-league game.

Even though it would be disheartening for fans to see the White Sox’s new toy shut down without making his Chicago debut in ’09, it would be the right move. The Chi Sox are currently 7 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central and it isn’t worth risking injury to Peavy when he’d only pitch in three or four games anyway.

Shut it down.

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Jake Peavy threw a bullpen session over the weekend at Citi Field and said he didn’t feel any pain. He’s been out since June 9 following ankle surgery.

”The biggest thing was everything was pain-free,” Peavy said. ”The ankle was a non-issue. I threw about 50 pitches and threw all my pitches, trying to get a feel to accelerate this thing as fast as we can to get back out there. Once again, you have to be smart about it. It was a good day.

A couple of weeks ago it was reported that Peavy might not be able to pitch again this season. But just based on this report, it appears that he could rehab and come back within the next three to four weeks.

The Sox are in a tight race with the Tigers and Twins in the AL Central and could certainly use the boost from Peavy if he can get healthy.

If the Cubs are interested in acquiring ace Jake Peavy from the Padres, the clock could be ticking on the opportunity.

Peavy said he would waive his no-trade option to join either the Cubs or Dodgers, but San Diego seemingly doesn’t want to deal the ace to someone in their division, so that would leave Chicago as their best trade partner at this point, unless another team emerges (Milwaukee?) in the upcoming days/weeks.

But according to Daily Herald’s Barry Rozner, if the Padres can’t move Peavy’s contract off their books soon, then they might begin “offloading salaries” and if they do that, then they might as well just keep their top pitcher.

The Cubs and Peavy seem like an excellent match, but as I recently wrote in my latest column, if Chicago is going to trade for anything right now it would probably be another bat. Milton Bradley has been dismal, Aramis Ramirez is on the DL and Derrek Lee has been as inconsistent as ever.

The Cubs’ starters on the other hand, have been solid. Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster have pitched well, Carlos Zambrano just got off the DL and Randy Wells has been a pleasant surprised as a fill-in for injured starters.

So why give up prospects to add Peavy to a rotation that’s already good enough to win? The timing is off for the Cubs, which means in the end they could inevitably pass on the opportunity to trade for Peavy.

The White Sox thought they had added an ace last week when they worked out a deal with the Padres that would have sent (among others) their top two pitching prospects – Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda – to San Diego in exchange for starting pitcher Jake Peavy. But with his desire to stay in the National League at the forefront of his decision, Peavy exercised his no-trade option and nixed the deal before it was completed.

Now that that deal has been squashed, where will Peavy wind up when the curtain closes on the 2009 baseball season? Or will he even be traded at all?

I’ve ranked the top 5 landing spots for Peavy and why each club will and won’t land the San Diego ace.

1. Milwaukee Brewers
Why they’ll land Peavy: If the Cubs’ offense continues to struggle, then Chicago will more than likely trade for a bat instead of adding another arm to its starting rotation. With the Cubs seemingly focused on their offense, a path could clear for the Brewers to make the Padres an offer for Peavy. Don’t forget that the Brewers surprised a lot of baseball pundits who believed they would never trade top prospect Matt LaPorta for ace CC Sabathia last season, but Milwaukee did just that. So while the Brewers don’t have the young pitching prospects that San Diego might covet, they certainly have a ton of young position talent that they could offer to pull off a deal. Plus, even though they lost Sabathia to free agency in 2009, Peavy would be under contract through the 2013 season, so at least the Brewers wouldn’t have to worry about giving up more top prospects for a pitcher that’ll walk again at the end of the year.
Why they won’t: After almost acquiring the White Sox’s top two pitching prospects, indications are that San Diego is looking for young arms in exchange for Peavy – which Milwaukee simply doesn’t have. The Brewers have a slew of young position talent, but outside of Jeremy Jeffress they don’t have many top arms in their farm system. If the Padres have their heart set on acquiring starting pitching, they’ll have to look elsewhere, because the Brewers just don’t have enough to make a worthwhile offer. Plus, a small market team like Milwaukee might eventually be scared away by the $63 million ($11 million is still owed to him in 2009) that remains on Peavy’s contract.

2. Chicago Cubs
Why they’ll land Peavy: Because outside of the White Sox, they’ve come the closest to landing Peavy to date. During baseball’s winter meetings in December, a rumored deal involving the Cubs, Padres and Phillies was reportedly on the table, with Chicago landing Peavy, Philadelphia acquiring Mark DeRosa and San Diego getting Jason Marquis and two pitching prospects from the Phillies. But the Cubs eventually walked away from the negotiation table because the Padres’ and GM Kevin Towers were asking for too much in return. But after their cross-town rivals the White Sox almost landed him, the Cubs might have been awoken to the possibility of once again pursuing Peavy. And considering they’ve lost seven in a row and just placed Rich Harden on the 15-day disabled list, the Cubs could use a shot in the arm like Peavy, because they’re certainly built to win now, not later.
Why they won’t: The Cubs current seven-game losing streak has nothing to do with their pitching staff – it’s their offense that has recently let them down. They’ve averaged less than 1.5 runs per contest over their last seven games and if they were to make a trade soon, it would probably be for a bat – not another arm. Plus, Harden’s injury isn’t considered to be serious and the club just got Carlos Zambrano back from the DL. Throw in the fact that Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and even Randy Wells (who had been filling in for Zambrano and will remain a starter now that Harden has been placed on the DL) have been very good so far this season, and one would get the impression that the Cubs’ starting rotation is set this year.

3. San Diego Padres
Why they’ll hang onto Peavy: Everyone is assuming that GM Kevin Towers is desperate to trade Peavy, but that’s not necessarily the case. Remember, Peavy is already under contract through 2013, so it’s not like he’s a soon-to-be free agent and the Padres are scrambling to get something for him before he hits the open market. Plus, he’s pitching well this season and San Diego is currently one of the hottest teams in baseball. The Padres are not expected to be competitive for an entire season, but if they continue to win, Towers might not feel as inclined to deal his ace this year. (Or at least not before the trade deadline.)
Why they won’t: They might not be completely desperate to trade Peavy, but they are desperate to get the rest of his $63 million salary off their books. Peavy is still owed $11 million this season and another $52 million through 2013 and San Diego would rather free that money up as they try to rebuild through youth. If Towers could get two top pitching prospects and free up some salary, he’s going to jump at the opportunity just as he did when the White Sox offered Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda before Peavy exercised his no-trade option.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers
Why they’ll land Peavy: Considering they’re up against mostly Triple A teams in their division, it’s probably safe to assume that the Dodgers will win the NL West walking away. But pitching wins in the postseason and while the Dodgers’ starters have been absolutely phenomenal (they have a staff ERA of 3.74, which is the lowest in baseball), Peavy could put L.A. over the top. GM Ned Colletti at least has to kick the tires on a trade with San Diego, because a starting four of Peavy, Chad Billingsley, Randy Wolf and either Clayton Kershaw or Eric Stults would be deadly in the postseason.
Why they won’t: The Padres and Dodgers both play in the NL West and you just don’t trade within your division. Chances are, Padres GM Kevin Towers would ask for a small fortune in a deal with the Dodgers and therefore Peavy might not be worth the money and prospects for L.A. in the end.

5. Chicago White Sox
Why they’ll land Peavy: While rumors persist that he wants to stay in the National League, Peavy admitted that he and his agent aren’t closing the door on the White Sox, who were willing to give up two top prospects to acquire his services. If the Padres start to sink to the bottom of the NL West, maybe Peavy will get anxious to play for a contender and accept Chicago’s deal, which still stands assuming the White Sox are in contention themselves later in the season.
Why they won’t: Peavy seems pretty steadfast that he wants to remain in the NL and has already rejected the opportunity to join the White Sox. While it’s not completely unfathomable, it would be surprising if he changes his mind and accepted a deal to play for the Sox and in the AL.

Other possibilities: Braves, Astros and Cardinals.
Peavy mentioned these three clubs (along with the Dodgers and Cubs) as possible teams that he would like to play for if he’s traded, although the Astros and Cardinals would probably balk at the idea of taking on Peavy’s salary. The Braves could be a potential dark horse team considering they were already engaged in talks with the Padres over Peavy last winter.

According to a report by the San Diego Union Tribune, a trade between the Padres and White Sox involving ace Jake Peavy could be imminent. The roadblocks appear to be whether or not Peavy would waive his no-trade clause and whether or not he wants to play for manager Ozzie Guillen, which apparently he has reservations about.

The question becomes: whom would the Sox have to give up in order to acquire Peavy? The Padres need middle infielders, so Chris Getz and Brent Lillibridge could be involved in the talks, but hopefully for White Sox fans, top shortstop prospect Gordon Beckham isn’t.

If San Diego has its sights set on pitching (which is certainly a possibility given the division and park it plays in), Chicago might be willing to part with Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard, although more mid-to-low-level prospects would likely have to be included as well.

If they were able to swing a deal, the Chi-Sox rotation would look incredibly strong with Peavy, Mark Buerhle, Gavin Floyd and John Danks leading the way. And considering they’re only 5.5 games back in the AL Central and we haven’t even reached the All-Star Break yet, a trade like this could sling them right back into contention.

Another thing to keep an eye on is whether or not this wakes up the other team in Chicago. The Cubs are in win-now mode, but thanks to injuries and inconsistent play, they find themselves currently three games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Ace Carlos Zambrano is currently on the DL and how long before Rich Harden pays his old friend a visit, too? If Peavy doesn’t waive his no-trade clause to join the White Sox, maybe the Cubs will re-enter trade talks with the Padres.

Update: The two teams have agreed on a deal, but Peavy has to sign off on it because of his no-trade clause.

The Chicago Tribune speculates that the Brewers could eventually make a push to trade for Padres’ ace Jake Peavy.

The Brewers obviously have enough offense to compete for the National League Central title, but they probably could use another starter in their rotation to help them hang with the Cubs.

The Brewers acquired CC Sabathia from Cleveland last summer, and don’t be surprised if they make a push for Jake Peavy later this year.

“That’s going to be based solely on how well we play over the course of time,” said center fielder Mike Cameron, Peavy’s former teammate in San Diego. “I expect for us to play well. We have a lot of talent here.”

Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin shocked the baseball world with the Sabathia trade. But Melvin is a small-market GM with a big-market mentality, and stealing Peavy out from under the Cubs’ noses would be a big coup in Wisconsin.

What’s interesting is that the Padres attempted to trade Peavy for most of the offseason and failed to do so. They’re not expected to be competitive this season, yet they’ve started off 5-2 and it’ll be interesting to see if they hang on to Peavy in order to make a run in a weak NL West, which just got a little weaker with the Diamondbacks having to place ace Brandon Webb on the 15 day DL.

But if the Brewers were able to make a deal for Peavy, they would obviously strengthen their starting rotation while keeping him out of Chicago, who made a push to acquire him this past offseason.

The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that the world champion Phillies are one of the additional teams. Philadelphia reportedly would receive utilityman Mark DeRosa from the Cubs for a pair of prospects, one of them possibly being lefthander J.A. Happ. The Cubs would then flip those prospects to the Padres as part of the package for Peavy. The Union-Tribune reported that the Padres would get DeRosa first, then flip him to the Phillies for the prospects. Either way, DeRosa would wind up in Philly as insurance for injured second baseman Chase Utley, and the Padres would get the prospects.

The Union-Tribune reported that the Baltimore Orioles also are involved in what Towers called the most complicated trade negotiation of his 14-year tenure as Padres GM. San Diego likely would obtain Orioles lefthander Garrett Olson for Cubs outfielder Felix Pie, after Pie is sent to the Orioles in the package for Peavy. Olson-for-Pie has long been rumored.

Cubs reliever Kevin Hart, another name frequently tied to the Peavy talks, might also be headed to San Diego. Righthanded starter Jason Marquis, whom the Cubs reportedly are shopping, is unlikely to be part of the deal.

Interesting enough, ESPN cites a source close to the situation that says the Cubs are nowhere close to dealing for Peavy:

First, the source said, the Cubs’ “No. 1 priority” is adding a left-handed-hitting outfielder, not a starting pitcher. And the team isn’t close to acquiring that bat. The Cubs have interest in a half-dozen outfielders who meet that description, with free agents Raul Ibanez and Bobby Abreu seemingly at the top of that list.

Second, the Cubs’ muddled ownership situation leaves Hendry and his baseball people unsure about whether they would be permitted to take on a contract as large as Peavy’s. The 27-year-old right-hander will make $11 million next season and has as much as $81 million remaining over the next five years if his team picks up his 2013 option.

Hmm. Are the Cubs just trying to protect themselves by not making the news public or are the Peavy-to-Chicago reports a fabrication?