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Fantasy Fallout: Week 9

Everything you need to know (and a lot that you don’t) about the fantasy implications of Sunday’s action.

QUARTERBACKS

Trent Edwards threw two picks and fumbled, but he threw for more than 197+ yards and a TD for the sixth time in eight games…Kyle Orton suffered an ugly ankle injury and it looks like he could be out for a month. Rex Grossman will fill in for him…Gus Frerotte (182 yards, 3 TD, INT) continues to play solid ball for Minnesota. Since he took over six games ago, he is averaging 245 yards and 1.3 pass TD per game.

RUNNING BACKS

Kevin Smith got 16 touches to Rudi Johnson’s 10, and Smith also scored a TD, so it looks like he is the lead back in Detroit…Cedric Benson (25 touches, 109 yards, TD) seems to be settling into the RB1 role in Cincy…All that pregame talk about Michael Bennett getting most of the work for Tampa Bay turned out to be erroneous. Earnest Graham is a solid start as long as Warrick Dunn is out. He fumbled twice, but threw a TD to Alex Smith to make up for it…There were rumors that the Cardinals were going to cut Edgerrin James’ touches and give Tim Hightower more of the workload, but I wasn’t expecting Hightower to register 23 touches (108 yards, TD) and James to register zero. It looks like Hiightower is officially RB1 in Arizona…Ryan Grant (20 carries, 86 yards) ran pretty well against a good Titans defense, which is encouraging for his owners. He failed to score a TD, however…The Denver running game was awful against the Dolphins. Three RBs (Michael Pittman, Andre Hall and Ryan Torain) combined for 12 yards on 11 carries…Michael Turner (31 carries, 139 yards) once again tore up a bad rush defense. He has four 104+ yard games (OAK, GB, KC, DET) against mediocre-to-bad defenses and four sub 58-yard games (PHI, CHI, CAR, TB) against four good defenses. He doesn’t get any action in the passing game (3 receptions all year), so he can’t make up for a bad rushing day in PPR leagues…Maurice Morris (8 touches, 43 yards) and Julius Jones (11 touches, 45 yards) split the RB work almost evenly…BenJarvus Green-Ellis (16 touches, 65 yards, TD) and Kevin Faulk (15 touches, 98 yards) split the work with Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan out. Faulk has more value in PPR leagues while Green-Ellis is the better play in standard and TD-heavy leagues.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Shaun McDonald has gone for 11-133-1 over the last two weeks and is the clear WR2 in Detroit. He’s worth a pickup, especially in PPR leagues…Rashied Davis (5-64-1) led the Bears in receiving this week, but Devin Hester (4-42) was a factor as well. Brandon Lloyd wasn’t active despite partially participating in practice this week…Both T.J. Houshmandzadeh (7-65) and Chad Johnson (5-37-2) have played pretty well the last couple of games, even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center…After a dreadful week against the Raiders (1-3), Derrick Mason exploded with a 9-136-1 day. He has caught at least four passes in seven of eight games this season and is a solid start in PPR leagues…Antonio Bryant (8-115-1) continues to thrive even with Joey Galloway (1-22) back. We might be seeing a changing of the guard in Tampa…Torry Holt (6-58-1) showed some life after complaining about his role in the St. Louis offense…Donald Driver (7-136-1) has caught 17 passes over the last three games, and is still a good WR2 in most PPR leagues…Greg Camarillo (11-111) continues to post solid numbers in PPR leagues. He has caught at least four passes in the last seven games…DeSean Jackson (2-20) had an unusually quiet game, and it might have something to do with the return of Kevin Curtis (6-83).

TIGHT ENDS

Owen Daniels had a huge (11-133) game for the Texans, outgaining Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter combined…Visanthe Shiancoe (1-25-1) found the endzone for the fourth time in six games…Jason Witten (0-0) was active, but failed to catch a pass. He was targeted four times and two resulted in interceptions. Hopefully, he can heal with the week off…Kevin Boss (3-30-1) continues his up and down play. Until he can show more consistency, he’s nothing but a spot starter.

FREE AGENTS

Now here are my thoughts on a few guys that might be on your league’s waiver wire…

Willis McGahee owners are cursing the Ravens right now. He was active for the game, but didn’t register a touch as Ray Rice (24 touches, 176 yards) and LeRon McClain (15 touches, 37 yards, TD) handled the rushing duties. It looks like Rice has passed McClain on the depth chart and is the guy to own in PPR leagues… Joe Flacco has put up pretty decent numbers over the last three weeks. Against the Browns, he posted 248 yards and two TD…Kolby Smith got off to a good start, but left the game with an injury. Now it looks like Jamaal Charles (18 rushes, 106 yards) is the Chiefs’ RB1…Tyler Thigpen (164 yards passing, TD, 22 yards rushing) put up decent QB numbers for the second straight week. Last week, it was against the Jets, but this week it was against a good Bucs’ defense…Mark Bradley’s 4-65 day followed up last week’s 5-42-1 day against the Jets. With defenses focused on Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez, Bradley is a sleeper at WR, especially if Tyler Thigpen continues to play good ball…Sage Rosenfels (224 yards, 2 TD, INT) was back under center in the second half against the Vikings after a shot to the knee knocked Matt Schaub out of the game…Michael Jenkins (2-64-2) scored on two long pass plays. This came on the heels of four straight games with 3+ catches. He should see his value rise as Matt Ryan gains experience…JaMarcus Russell (6/19, 31 yards, INT) was absolutely brutal against a shaky Falcons pass defense…Brent Celek (6-131) started in place of the concussed L.J. Smith and had a great game…Koren Robinson (4-105-1) has caught four passes in each of the last two weeks and right now it looks like he is the Seahawks’ WR1. Bobby Engram (3-20) was pretty quiet. Don’t look for Engram to really get it going until (or is it if?) Matt Hasselbeck comes back.

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 9

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Donovan McNabb, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

LOVE ‘EM

QB: There are a number of fringe-type quarterbacks with nice matchups this week. Kyle Orton (vs. DET) has a great matchup with the Lions, who have given up 259 passing yards and 1.7 pass TD per game…Trent Edwards (vs. NYJ) had a so-so game against the Dolphins last week, but he should fare better against the 23rd-ranked Jets pass defense at home…Gus Frerotte (vs. HOU) has been steady since he took over in Week 3 (257 yards, 1.0 TD per game) and this week he faces a Texans defense that has yielded 207 yards and 1.3 pass TD per game…Marc Bulger (vs. ARI) has shown some life of late (237 yards, 1.0 TD over the last two games), and with the 21st-ranked Cardinals pass defense (223 yards, 2.0 TD per game) coming to town, the odds are that he’ll have a solid fantasy game…Chad Pennington (@ DEN) faces the Broncos, who have given up 240 yards and 1.7 TD per game…For the desperate, Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. JAX) faces the 22nd-ranked Jaguars pass defense, while JaMarcus Russell (vs. ATL) faces the Falcons, who are 24th in the league against the pass.

RB: With Warrick Dunn dinged up, Earnest Graham (@ KC) is a great start against the league’s worst rush defense. The Chiefs have given up a mind-boggling 197 rushing yards and 2.0 rush TD per game…Matt Forte (vs. DET), Michael Turner (@ OAK) and Ronnie Brown (@ DEN) are must-starts this week…Tim Hightower (@ STL) is a sneaky good start this week, as the Cardinals are giving him more work of late. The Rams have played better defense in the last few weeks, so don’t expect a monster game…It’s hard to trust any of the New England RBs, but Kevin Faulk (@ IND) has a great matchup with a bad Colts rush defense.

WR: Definitely get Calvin Johnson (@ CHI) into your lineup this week. The Bears are 29th against the pass, and it’s likely that the Lions will be playing catchups…DeSean Jackson (@ SEA) has a nice matchup with an inconsistent Seahawks defense that has allowed 245 passing yards and 1.6 pass TD per game. Likewise, Kevin Curtis is a good play as well…Donnie Avery and Torry Holt (vs. ARI) have a good matchup with the Cardinals. Arizona has yielded 223 passing yards and 2.0 pass TD on the season…In bigger leagues, Greg Camarillo and Ted Ginn (@ DEN) are crafty plays against the Broncos. This is likely to be a high scoring game and the Dolphins might have their way with Denver’s 28th-ranked pass defense.

LEAVE ‘EM

QB: Joe Flacco (@ CLE) has a rough matchup with an improved Browns defense that is ranked 10th in the league and has only yielded 1.0 TD per game…Matt Cassel (@ IND) faces the 2nd-ranked pass defense of the Colts. Indy has only given up two pass TD all year…Tyler Thigpen (vs. TB) played well against the Jets last week, but he’s a bad start against the Bucs, who are 7th in the league against the pass. (They have allowed 1.4 pass TD per game, however)…The following players are still startable, but use with caution: Aaron Rodgers (@ TEN), Matt Schaub (@ MIN), Ben Roethlisberger (@ WAS) and Jason Campbell (vs. PIT).

RB: Jamal Lewis (vs. BAL) has a rough matchup with the league’s best rush defense (64 rush yards, 0.1 rush TD per game)…Kolby Smith (vs. TB) should get most of the work in KC, but the Bucs have yet to yield a rush TD this season…Willie Parker (@ WAS) is back at practice, but if he does play, he’ll likely be sharing carries with the more-than-effective Mewelde Moore against a solid Redskins rush defense…Julius Jones and Maurice Morris (vs. PHI) are splitting carries again, and with the 9th-ranked Eagles’ rush defense on tap, neither guy is worth a start.

WR: Greg Jennings is always a must-start, but you might want to leave Donald Driver (@ TEN) on the bench. The Titans’ 4th-ranked pass defense has allowed just 185 yards and 0.4 TD per game this season…I wouldn’t bench most of these players, but they have tough matchups this week, so lower your expectations: Roddy White (@ OAK), Dwayne Bowe (vs. TB), Wes Welker and Randy Moss (@ IND) (though the Colts just lost a starting CB), Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (@ WAS), and Santana Moss (vs. PIT)…Don’t expect Bobby Engram to have much of a game with Matt Hasselbeck out and a tough Philly pass defense coming to town.

DTBWW

Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire. Each week, you pick up a defense, usually playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

CLE (vs. BAL)
STL (vs. ARI)

Last week’s picks:

Texans: 6 PA + 2 SK + 2 INT + 1 FR + 1 RET TD = 19 fantasy points
Dolphins: 16 PA + 2 SK + 1 INT + 3 FR + 1 SAFTEY = 10 fantasy points

Jason Witten probable vs. Giants

He has a fractured rib, but that’s not going to stop Jason Witten from playing in a crucial NFC East showdown against the New York Giants.

With the Cowboys facing the prospect of having more talent sidelined by injuries than they have competing on the field against the defending Super Bowl champions, Witten seems determined to underscore his reputation as one of Dallas’ toughest players.

Whether Witten is able to play will depend upon not only his pain tolerance, but his ability to protect the football while wearing additional equipment over the injured area.

Fantasy owners will love to have Witten in the lineup, but one has to wonder if it would be better to sit him down and let him heal for three weeks (since the Cowboys have a Week 10 bye). If he aggravates or worsens the injury against the G-Men, the Cowboys will wish that they had rested their star tight end.

Fantasy Football Podcast: Week 9

Listen in as Anthony Stalter and I discuss the Tennessee Titans, Jason Witten’s rib, J.T. O’Sullivan’s benching, Larry Johnson’s suspension and the Giants/Cowboys tilt, as well as a couple of defensive matchups to exploit this week on your waiver wire.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

(The opening and closing music is ELO’s “Mr. Blue Sky.“)

Fantasy Football Update: 10/28

Jason Witten has a broken rib but wants to play through it this week in a big game against the Giants. Conventional wisdom states that the Cowboys should rest Witten this week because they have a bye in Week 10, so that would give him 2-3 weeks of rest. If Witten can’t go, Martellus Bennett wouldn’t be a bad fill in. Visanthe Shiancoe or Zach Miller would be good spot starters as well…Santonio Holmes will play Monday night, which means that Nate Washington will be relegated back to WR3 duties…Matt Hasselbeck is likely out for Week 9 with a bulging disk in his back. He apparently doesn’t have pain in his back or leg, but he has a ‘dead leg’ feeling. Not good…The 49ers named Shaun Hill their starting QB. He’s an interesting pickup in fantasy leagues since he’s playing in Mike Martz’s offense…Steven Jackson should be ready to go in Week 9, according to Jim Haslett.

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