Yes, at least according to Peter Keating, who wrote a piece entitled “Why Dwight Howard is overrated,” which outlines the recent research presented by John Huizinga and Charles “Sandy” Weil at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
Insider subscription required, so I’ll be brief in my excerpt…
Over the entire stretch of data that Huizinga and Weil examined, Tim Duncan didn’t goaltend once, while 24 percent of Dwight Howard’s blocks resulted in free points for the other team.
The data yields all kinds of instructive contrasts, most clearly between Duncan and Howard (hence the name of Huizinga and Weil’s paper). In 2008, Howard had 232 blocked shots, but he either saved or created just 124 points; Duncan had 149 blocks, but generated 167 points. On a points-per-block basis, Duncan has four of the top 10 seasons, according to Huizinga and Weil. Howard has three of the bottom 10.
If anything, Howard should look at this report and draw two conclusions: 1) he needs to stop goaltending, and 2) he needs to try to direct his blocks better. Either block it to himself or to a teammate to start a fast break opportunity. He often tosses the ball out of bounds, which only serves to give possession back to the other team.
On the final Laker possession in Sunday’s tilt in Orlando, Howard picked up Kobe off of a screen and roll and forced him into a very tough fadeaway jumper. His defense on that play was excellent and I think he is a very good defender. Could he be better? This research says he can.
Photo from fOTOGLIF
