Tag: Dirk Nowitzki (Page 4 of 9)

Dwyane Wade likely to stay put

Unlike LeBron James, who has been essentially silent about his intentions come July 1, Dwyane Wade has made it clear over the last few weeks that he would very much like to stay in Miami, provided the Heat can find him a suitable running mate.

“It’s going to be fit with me first,” Wade said. “I’ve made that very clear. Do I want to leave? Nope. Mmm-hmm. I want to be in Miami. That’s where it starts.”

“I don’t do recruiting. Not now, anyway.”

“I don’t look at it as recruiting. I’ll gauge and see if guys want to be [in Miami], who wants to be with me.

“It’s about who can come to Miami, it’s about who do you trust, who can fit the organization, who best fits you as a player, things of that nature.

Chris Bosh would be ideal, and while LeBron would be an odd fit, I think a Lebron/Wade dynamic could work. After that, it’s not clear what free agents — Nowitzki, Amare, Boozer, Joe Johnson — would be the best fit. Wade could use a big man to run the pick and roll/pop and to be a force in the post to take some pressure off of him offensively. He had that in Shaq when he won the title in 2006.

After LeBron, it appears that Bosh will be the next domino to fall in free agency. He is more coveted than Dirk (age), Amare and Boozer (dependability), so there are a number of teams with and without cap space that would love to have him.

2010 NBA Free Agency: What are they worth? (#1-#5)

Even though we have a pretty good Finals matchup, this postseason has been somewhat overshadowed by this summer’s free agency period, when no fewer than seven of the top 17 players (in terms of John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating) are going to be free to sign with any team they choose.

One big question teams are faced with when using their available cap space is just how much each player is worth. This depends on a number of factors: age, production, value, injury history and fit, just to name a few. Over the next week or two, I’m going to examine this year’s free agent crop and try to guesstimate the value of each player. I’ve done this before, with some success.

For each free agent, I’ll list their age (on July 1), their PER, and the salaries of comparable players.

Let’s jump right in and start with the big names…

1. LeBron James, SF
Age: 25
PER: 31.19
Comparables: Dwyane Wade ($17.1 M), Carmelo Anthony ($17.1 M), Kobe Bryant ($24.8 M)

LeBron’s value is off the charts and is only limited by the rules of the collective bargaining agreement. He will likely sign a max deal wherever he goes. He’s going to start at around $16.8 M per season since that’s 30% of the salary cap ($56.1 M), which is a bit more than 105% of his previous year’s salary. (The max first-year salary is whichever is greater.)
Value: $18.0-$18.5 M per year (for three years)

2. Dwyane Wade, SG
Age: 28
PER: 28.10
Comparables: LeBron James ($17.1 M), Carmelo Anthony ($17.1 M), Kobe Bryant ($24.8 M), Brandon Roy ($13.5 M)

Wade is three years older and more injury prone, but he has already won a title and is a top 5 player in the league, so he’ll get a max contract just like LeBron. Since he’s a bit older, I wouldn’t be surprised if he elected to sign a five- or six-year deal instead of going with the shorter deal that has more flexibility.
Value: $19.5 M – $20.5 M (over six years, if he re-signs)

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Handicapping the players in the LeBron sweepstakes

Anyone outside of his entourage who claims to know what LeBron is going to do is being disingenuous. He loves the fact that he’s the center of attention even though the playoffs are still in full swing. He often speaks of July 1 in grandiose terms and that’s because, like most superstars, he has a very high opinion of himself.

That said, I found myself rooting for the Celtics in their series with the Cavs because as a writer, Cleveland’s early exit throws LeBron’s future to the wind. He could land any number of places.

Though the LeBron Tracker makes me a little nauseous, I thought I’d take a stab at handicapping where King James might end up. I’ll include the six teams that ESPN deemed worthy of making the top banner and add the Mavs for good measure. For each team, I’ll outline why he’d sign and why he wouldn’t. I’ll also rank (on a scale of 1-10) how he fits from a personnel standpoint.

In terms of fit, I look to the last few premier wings who have broken through and won at least one title as the best player on their team. I’m talking about Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, Dwyane Wade and Michael Jordan. What do they have in common? Kobe, Pierce and Wade all played with top notch big men — Gasol, Garnett and Shaq, respectively — while Jordan had Scottie Pippen. In other words, they all got to play with another All-NBA (Top 15) caliber player when they won their title.

They also enjoyed good coaching. Jordan and Kobe had Phil Jackson, Wade had Pat Riley and Doc Rivers did a great job of coaching the ’08 Celtics. They were also all surrounded by good shooters who could make teams pay for double-teaming their respective superstar.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at the major players in line for LeBron’s services and try to handicap their chances of signing the league’s most valuable player.

CAVS (25%)
Why he’ll sign: Loyalty, comfort, familiarity. He’s from the area and he doesn’t want to leave town after an early postseason exit, as it would effectively destroy basketball in the city of Cleveland. Shaq will be gone and there’s an opportunity for an upgrade at head coach.
Why he won’t sign: Too much baggage. The franchise has had seven years to build around him and they’ve made just one Finals appearance. Suspect flexibility with the roster.
Fit: 5/10 The Cavs have a pretty good shooter at power forward (Antawn Jamison) and a good shooter at point guard (Mo Williams), but neither player is even average on defense. There are a lot of solid-to-good players on the roster, but no one approaches the Top 15 sidekick that helped the aforementioned wings win their titles. It’s tough to find that kind of player via trade, but that’s how Gasol, Garnett and Shaq came to play for the Lakers, Celtics and Heat. Cap-wise, if they re-sign LeBron, they won’t have any cap space to speak of until the summer of 2012 when Jamison’s salary is off the books.

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An in-depth look at the top free agent bigs

Normally, I’d wait for the playoffs to conclude before really digging into this summer’s free agency. But the free agent class of 2010 is so good, and the face of the league could change so much, I think an early look is warranted.

A few months ago, I updated my list of the Top 10 NBA Free Agents of 2010, and not a whole lot has changed in terms of the overall rankings of these players.

I thought it would be interesting to look at the five best free agent big men — Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, Carlos Boozer and David Lee — and compare them using a variety of statistics. Here is what I found:

(As always, click on the table to see a bigger version.)

All of the stats in Table 1 should be familiar to most NBA fans. % GP represents the number of games in which a particular player has appeared, so the lower the number, the more games the player has missed due to injury or other reasons. I’m not 100% clear on Lee’s rookie year — I don’t know if he missed time with injury or just did not play because the coach didn’t put him in. He has been very durable the last three years, appearing in 81 games each season. Stoudemire and Boozer are clearly the biggest injury concerns of the bunch, but both players have stayed healthy this season. Stoudemire’s FG% (55.7%) is very impressive, while Bosh brings a bit of three-point shooting to the table.

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Where do the Mavs go from here?

In the Daily Dime, Marc Stein discusses the short-term future of the Dallas Mavericks after their first round loss last night to the Spurs.

Mavs owner Mark Cuban didn’t trade for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood in February, taking on millions in extra salary and luxury tax in the process, to make such a swift return to the early playoff misery inflicted by Golden State in 2007. Dallas became the first No. 1 seed in league history to lose a best-of-seven series in the first round that year … and just became the first No. 2 to lose in Round 1 since the NBA went to a best-of-seven format in 2003.

“We’re a failure,” Mavericks guard Jason Terry said. “We failed. There’s no other word but failure. That’s how we feel right now.”

Cuban himself acknowledged after the Mavs’ Game 1 triumph that the F word — yes, failure — was going to be the reaction all over town and all over the league “if we don’t win a championship.”

“We’ve got a great base,” Cuban said. “We’ll have a chance to work with each other [in training camp before next season]. You could see some of the uneasiness because we haven’t had a full season to play together, and that showed a few times, but we’ll pull all the pieces together and we’ll go at ’em again next year.”

Cuban’s “we’ve got a great base” comment implies that he’s not planning to blow up the roster. Dirk Nowitzki, however, is suddenly a candidate to join an already stellar free agent class this summer, though it’s still far more likely that he’ll re-up.

But back to Cuban — the whole we-haven’t-had-enough-time-to-gel line of reasoning is starting to wear thin. Butler and Haywood had 27 games to work the kinks out — how long does it take to develop the necessary chemistry? That’s an entire season for most college and high school teams, and most of them gel just fine. Chemistry can develop over time, but typically speaking, it’s either there or it’s not.

Complicating matters is Cuban’s tendency to drastically alter his roster. In February of 2008, he swapped Devin Harris and two first round picks for Jason Kidd. Last summer, he signed Shawn Marion. And this February, he pulled the trigger on the Butler/Haywood trade. Who’s to say that he’ll be able to control himself when a few more aging, expensive stars become available at the next trade deadline?

As long as Nowitzki is around, the Mavs will be competitive. If he returns to a team that already has Butler, Kidd, Marion, Jason Terry and Roddy Beaubois, Dallas will once again win 50 games and make the postseason. But with the way that they were worked over by an aging Spurs team, does anyone really think the Mavs will make another Finals appearance anytime soon?

It has to be frustrating to let a title slip through your fingers in 2006 and then spend the next three or four years trying to get back to that level. Under the current circumstances, the Mavs seem destined to be a Western Conference also-ran. I don’t blame Cuban for trying to build on what he has, but unless there’s a major infusion of talent — I’m talking a top 10 or 15 player acquired via sign-and-trade — it doesn’t look like the Mavs are a real threat to make the Finals.

That’s the nice thing about knowing that you’re rebuilding. There are no delusions of grandeur.

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