This year, I’m going to preview the NBA season by starting with the lowest of the low and working my way up to my Finals picks. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff also-ran, I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason.
#10: Denver Nuggets
It’s tough to handicap Denver’s chances this season given the uncertainty surrounding Carmelo Anthony’s future with the franchise. There’s very little doubt in my mind that if the Nuggets hold onto Melo for the entire season, he’s going to sign elsewhere next summer. Will they risk losing him for no compensation after watching Chris Bosh bolt Toronto last summer? It seems doubtful, though it’s going to be very difficult to justify trading Anthony away in the middle of the season if the team is playing well and looks to be amongst the West’s elite. The truth is that the Raptors did get something out of Bosh’s departure. People forget, but Toronto and Cleveland actually worked out sign-and-trades with the Heat and each garnered a couple of first round picks (and a trade exception) out of their respective deals. The Nuggets could wait and (probably) do the same thing, but they’ll get better value if they trade Anthony before the deadline. With one foot out the door, the Nuggets are going to be answering questions all season about the status of their superstar and it’s going to be a distraction. There’s no way around it. With a pretty good roster, the Nuggets will be good, but they’re not good enough to overcome all the drama. If Denver moves Anthony and eventually trades Chauncey Billups as well, they’ll be in great shape financially, building around Ty Lawson and whatever young players (Derrick Favors?) they can acquire for their two stars. But make no mistake — this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
#9: Utah Jazz
For the first time in six seasons, the Jazz head into the season without the potent duo of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. Williams is basically the franchise cornerstone and is still there, but Boozer is long gone. So the Jazz are going to take a step back, right? Not necessarily. They have one of the best backup power forwards in the league (Paul Millsap) ready to take Boozer’s place and they stole Al Jefferson from the T-Wolves, so the front line will be fine assuming Mehmet Okur’s recovery from an injury to his Achilles. Of greater concern is the wing, where the losses of Kyle Korver and Wes Matthews will hurt if C.J. Miles, Raja Bell and Gordon Hayward are not up to the task. Head coach Jerry Sloan will have his team competing and it’s rare that the Jazz are ever out-executed on any given night. Another 50+ win season looks likely.
