John DeShazier, The Times-Picayune: One, he got veteran help in Ariza, a 25-year-old, former NBA champion with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2009 who’s coming off his best statistical season. Yes, there’s a risk involved. Collison was one of the league’s best rookies last season and viewed as the ideal backup to Chris Paul at point guard. He could become an All-Star, but the key word is could — 40 or 50 standout games as a rookie don’t constitute a career. Meanwhile, Ariza is a six-year pro whose career has arched upward. Two, he got rid of a declining player with a bad contract (Posey) and an unproductive one (Wright) who assured his departure by refusing to play in summer league after new coach Monty Williams asked him to. It doesn’t matter much whether Belinelli can play, though he’s 6-foot-5 and a career 39 percent shooter from 3-point range, compared to Wright, who was as likely as not to airball a foul shot. A Wright-for-anyone trade falls in the addition by subtraction file. As nice as Wright was, no one accused him of actually “getting” it.

Dave D’Alessandro, The Star-Ledger: The deal is low-risk and high-reward for Nets GM Billy King, because it’s rare to land a productive power forward in the prime of his career with an expiring contract, one who is willing to hold a job until rookie Derrick Favors is ready to snatch it from him. The 6-10 Murphy is one of the league’s most unique players, a power forward who can be a game-buster from the arc but can also throw his weight around. Two seasons ago, he became the first player in NBA history to finish in the top five among the league’s rebounders (11.8 rpg) and 3-point shooters (.450).

Jonathan Feigen, Houston Chronicle: The Rockets tried to trade to get Courtney Lee in the 2008 NBA Draft. They tried to trade to get him last year before the Orlando Magic traded him to the New Jersey Nets. They tried to trade to get him after he went to the Nets. Finally Wednesday, the Rockets landed Lee, sending forward Trevor Ariza to the New Orleans Hornets after just one season in Houston to complete a four-team, five-player deal.In two seasons, the 6-5 Lee has averaged 10.3 points on 44.2 percent shooting. He averaged 12.5 points with the Nets. The Rockets, however, were particularly drawn to his defense, citing his ability to defend at three positions. “He’s very intriguing defensively,” Rockets vice president for player personnel Gersson Rosas said. “He’s going to follow the game plan to a T. He eats up direction and guidance from coaches. “He can defend big ‘ones’ like Deron Williams, Rodney Stuckey, Jason Kidd. He gives us a direction we did not have before. He’s cut from the same cloth as Shane Battier. He really values the details, has a great approach. He really takes it personal.”

Note: You can read my take here.

I wouldn’t call this a ‘mega-trade’ but it’s a pretty significant in terms of the players involved and its impact on the potential departure of Chris Paul.

Chad Ford has the (brief) details:

In the proposed deal, the Houston Rockets will send Trevor Ariza to the New Orleans Hornets. The Hornets will send Darren Collison and James Posey to the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers will send Troy Murphy to the New Jersey Nets. And the Nets will send Courtney Lee to the Rockets.

Ford is now reporting that this trade is official.

Here is the deal in the ESPN Trade Machine. Click on the picture to see a bigger version.

Let’s look at the Hornets first since they’re the ones trying to satisfy Chris Paul. They are essentially trading away a good up-and-coming point guard in Darren Collison along with James Posey and the two years remaining on his contract. In return, they’re getting Trevor Ariza, who averaged 15-6-4 while shooting under 40% from the field last season for the Rockets.

I thought they might be able to get a little more for Collison, but Ariza is valuable because he’s an athletic wing who can score a little, but can really defend. He’ll fit in nicely alongside Paul, Marcus Thornton and David West in the Hornets’ starting lineup (assuming Monty Williams starts him). They were also able to shed Posey’s contract, which makes the Ariza acquisition a financial wash for the next two seasons. For the Hornets’ sake, I do wish he could shoot the three a little better, but maybe his 3PT accuracy will rise from its 2009-10 levels (33%) with Paul setting him up for better looks.

Meanwhile, the Pacers get their point guard of the future (Collison) by trading away Murphy, who is in the last year of his deal. Financially, Collison and Posey will cost them an extra $4.2 million because most of their salaries are offset by the loss of Murphy’s salary ($12.0 million) this season. This is really a great move by the Pacers. Collison is going to be a very good point guard in the NBA for a very long time.

As for the Rockets and the Nets — well, the Rockets will shed Ariza’s salary, giving them an additional $4.6 million of cap space heading into the summer of 2011. That should be more than enough to sign a max free agent. Conversely, the Nets add Murphy at the expense of Lee, but his deal is expiring, so it looks like he’ll serve as a stopgap at power forward while the franchise waits for Derrick Favors to develop.

In the end, is this a game-changer for Paul and the Hornets? No, but it’s a step in the right direction. After a summer of treading water (or even losing ground by trading away the #11 pick), the franchise has fully committed to Paul by trading away their backup plan (Collison) for someone who can help him win now.

Given this move, it looks like those who had written off the possibility that Paul would stay in New Orleans were wrong. I don’t think the Hornets would have swung this deal had they thought that Paul was serious about forcing a trade. Either that, or the Hornets have completely misread Paul’s intentions.

What constitutes a “breakout” season? To me, it’s a talented player who has been in the league at least one year who is about to see a big increase in minutes. Here is a list of 10 players (in no particular order) who I think will have career seasons in 2009-10.

1. Tyrus Thomas, Bulls
The 23 year-old is entering his fourth season and will probably be the Bulls’ starter at power forward. He averaged 10.8 points and 6.5 rebounds in 27.5 minutes last season, and an increase in minutes would enhance those numbers. Now that he has an effective mid-range jump shot, he can use that and his athleticism to get to the basket.

2. Anthony Randolph, Warriors
Randolph is a popular breakout pick this season after a great summer league and flashes of brilliance in his rookie year. He only played about 18 minutes per game last season, and is playing almost 28 minutes in the preseason, starting every game in which he’s appeared. Don Nelson may not start him during the regular season since he’s been battling some injuries, but expect him to get plenty of run this year.

3. Anthony Morrow, Warriors
Let’s stay in Oakland, shall we? Not to read too much into preseason stats, but through eight games, the second-year Morrow is averaging 22.0 points on 58% shooting (52% from 3PT). He’s going to come off the bench, but that might not last for long if Stephen Jackson eventually gets traded. Morrow is one of the league’s best shooters, nailing almost 47% of his threes a year ago.

4. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
With Yao Ming out and Tracy McGrady hobbled, the Rockets don’t have a whole lot of offensive options and Brooks is one of the best shooters the team has. He averaged 11.2 points in 25 minutes per game last season. If he gets 32-35 minutes per game, he should average somewhere in the 14-16 ppg range.

5. Louis Williams, 76ers
He’s a very different player than Andre Miller, the guy he’s being asked to replace. He isn’t going to drop a lot of dimes, but the guy can score, and if he gets starter’s minutes his averages are going to jump. In the preseason, he’s averaging 14.9 ppg in 27 minutes of PT.

6. Courtney Lee / Chris Douglas-Roberts, Nets
I’m listing them both because it’s not clear which will be the Nets’ starting shooting guard on opening day. It may not matter because the other might be the starting small forward. In the preseason, CDM and Lee are averaging 18.5 ppg and 17.0 ppg, respectively. While Devin Harris and Brook Lopez are likely to lead the Nets in scoring, Lee and Douglas-Roberts could both average 12-14 ppg.

7. J.R. Smith, Nuggets
Smith has already had a breakout year (in his first season with the Nuggets), but the departure of Dahntay Jones gives Smith the chance to start. George Karl started Jones last season because of his commitment to defense, so it’s just as likely that he finds another defensive-oriented off guard to fill that vacated role. Smith has the talent to start, but can he keep his head on straight and play enough defense to keep Karl happy? (By the way, he’s suspended for the first seven games.)

8. Channing Frye, Suns
After a nice rookie season (12p/6r) in New York, Frye wasn’t as good in his second season and landed in Portland where he didn’t get much run. Now he’s the starting center in Phoenix and is averaging 12.3 points and 4.0 rebounds in 26.8 minutes of playing time. The Suns are awfully thin on the front line, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Frye ends up playing 30-35 minutes a game.

9. Julian Wright, Hornets
While he isn’t shooting particularly well (41%) in the preseason, it appears that Byron Scott has finally given up on Peja Stojakovic and is ready to hand over the keys to Wright, who has started all six preseason games in which he has appeared. He’s a great athlete and versatile player, but the big mystery with Wright is his three-point shooting. He hit 10-24 attempts in his rookie season, but just 2-21 in his second year. The Hornets need shooters for Chris Paul to pass to, so if Wright doesn’t start knocking down shots, Scott might go back to Peja.

10. Hakim Warrick, Bucks
Warrick is leading the Bucks in preseason scoring with 14.4 ppg. He’ll battle with Luc Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova and Joe Alexander for minutes. Scott Skiles will likely start Mbah a Moute at one forward spot because he’s a great defender, but the other is up for grabs. Regardless, Warrick should get plenty of minutes and is on a one-year contract, so he’s very motivated.

Replacement refs aren’t up to snuff. Last night in the Rockets-Celtics game, 75 fouls were called and 102 free throws were shot. This is astounding. NBA refs get a bad rap. Basketball is a tough game to officiate because there is so much contact on any given possession. Refs have quite a bit of leeway, which can lead to inconsistency from game to game and from crew to crew.

HC Don Nelson plans to use Stephen Curry as a starter…at times. He says it’s going to be a matchup thing because Curry is so good. So look for Curry to start when the opponent also has a couple of smallish guards in the starting lineup. But wouldn’t a Monta Ellis/Stephen Curry backcourt create huge matchup problems on the other end of the court? I think most off guards would have a tough time getting back in transition to cover Curry on the wing.

When will the Milwaukee Bucks get a new arena? I grew up outside of Milwaukee and remember when the Bradley Center was state of the art. Needless to say, that was a while ago. The Bucks are in a tough spot because with the recession, they’re going to have a tough time making money this season unless the team is playoff-caliber. Given the environment, neither the city nor the franchise are going to want to pay for an arena, so there’s a real chance that the Bucks’ owner — Senator Herb Kohl — sells the team in the next few years. It would be a shame, because Bucks fans are great when the team is good (or at least mediocre).

Delonte West leaves the team…again. Other than maybe the Lakers, the Cavs are probably the best equipped to handle this kind of drama during training camp. With the whole LeBron/Shaq honeymoon, eyes are elsewhere, but West has the potential to become a distraction as the season wears on. He’s too good to cut loose, but not so good that he deserves special treatment. It’s going to be interesting to see how the Cavs handle West if he continues to miss time.

Whoa! I thought Vince Carter might be on the move, but I wasn’t expecting this.

The New Jersey Nets have agreed to a trade in principle with the Magic that will send Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson to Orlando for Rafer Alston, Tony Battie and Courtney Lee, two league sources told ESPN.com.

As for the Nets, the move is a cost-cutting measure. Both Alston and Battie are in the last year of their contracts, and trading for them would shave $16.5 million off New Jersey’s roster in the summer of 2010 and put the Nets well below the salary cap.

Now this is a trade that helps both teams, unlike the Suns’ Shaq giveaway and the Bucks’ donation of Richard Jefferson to the Spurs’ championship fund. Not only do the Nets get loads of salary cap relief — Carter has three years and $52 million remaining on his contract — they get a nice prospect to replace him in Courtney Lee, who averaged better than 11 points per game and 43% 3PT shooting in February and March. The Nets project to go into the summer of 2010 with almost $30 million in cap space.

For the Magic, Carter adds a boost of athleticism to lineup of spot up shooters. But how will this affect the team’s ability to re-sign Hedo Turkoglu? If they can get him to re-up, they’d have a lineup of Jameer Nelson, Carter, Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard that looks deadly on paper. I think they’re planning on retaining him, but the Magic are looking at a pretty hefty payroll over the next few years with Carter on the roster.

How would the 2008 NBA Draft go if owners and GMs knew then what they know now?

Here’s my take…

#1 Chicago: Derrick Rose
The Bulls don’t want a mulligan. They are perfectly happy with their franchise point guard.

#2 Miami: Brook Lopez
Michael Beasley isn’t a bust, no matter what anyone says. But if the Heat had it all to do over again, they’d go with Lopez here, who posted 13.0 points and 8.1 rebounds in about 31 minutes of playing time.

#3 Minnesota: O.J. Mayo
I don’t think the T-Wolves would do anything differently. They’d still draft Mayo and trade with Memphis for Love. Why not?

#4 Seattle/OKC: Russell Westbrook
Likewise, the Thunder have to be happy with what they have in Westbrook, who averaged 20.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists in February.

#5 Memphis: Kevin Love
Like I said, this deal would still go down here. I don’t think anyone left on the board would convince the Grizzlies to take someone other than Love, whom they would once again trade for Mayo.

#6 New York: Michael Beasley
Danilo Gallinari didn’t do much in his rookie season to dissuade Donnie Walsh from drafting the Kansas State product here. He’d be a nice fit in Mike D’Antoni’s up tempo attack.

#7 LA Clippers: Eric Gordon
16.1 points on 46% shooting from a rookie off guard? Can’t ask for much more than that.

#8 Milwaukee: D.J. Augustin
Joe Alexander may eventually turn out to be a player, but if John Hammond had this pick again, I think he’d go in another direction. Jason Thompson and Anthony Randolph are possibilities, but how about Augustin, who posted 11.8 points and 3.5 assists playing for the notoriously hard-to-please Larry Brown?

#9 Charlotte: Mario Chalmers
With Augustin off the board, the Bobcats might have gone with Chalmers, who averaged 10.0 points and 4.9 assists en route to an appearance on the All-Rookie Second Team.

#10 New Jersey: Courtney Lee
With Lopez long gone and Vince Carter’s career on the downswing, the Nets might have gone with Lee, an athletic do-it-all off guard who shot better than 40% from long range, and averaged almost 11 points per game in February and March. Javale McGee, Jason Thompson and Anthony Randolph would be possibilities as well.

Honorable mention: Jason Thompson, George Hill, Anthony Randolph, JaVale McGee, Marreesse Speights, Kosta Koufos, Anthony Morrow, Nicolas Batum, Roy Hibbert and Luc Mbah a Moute

Everyone loves to focus on the lottery, but there are good players to be had in the late first round as well. A while back, I put together a list of the top second round picks of the modern era, so now I’m going to focus on those players that were drafted between pick #21 and pick #30 in the first round. (Note: If a player was drafted in the second round, even if they were taken with the #29 or #30 pick overall, they are ineligible to make the list. Sorry, Gilbert.) Since there are more star-quality players available in the 20’s, I’m limiting this list to the last ten drafts (i.e. 1999 through 2008).

It is sometimes tough to rank older players with newer players, but even if a younger player holds more trade value right now, I am going to take into account each player’s entire career. For the young guys, I have to project a little bit, so keep that in mind as you read and react. I feel great about the top eight guys, but there are a few players that missed the list that are pretty interchangeable with #9 and #10.

On with the list…

10. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
26th pick in 2007
I had to decide between Brooks and Nate Robinson here and went with Brooks given his fine performance in the playoffs this season (16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 42% from 3PT) and how Robinson’s numbers are a little inflated playing for Mike D’Antoni. Brooks is not a natural point guard, but his sharpshooting is a good fit given Houston’s inside-out attack. He’s small, but he’s quick and is able to score at the rim when given some daylight. The Rockets feel good enough about Brooks to trade Rafer Alston away midseason, so you have to like his upside.

9. Kendrick Perkins, Celtics
27th pick in 2003 (drafted by the Grizzlies)
In the world of “big” guys, I also considered Boris Diaw here, but it’s tough to pass on a 6’10” 24-year-old who averaged 8.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a team loaded with vets. Without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, the C’s needed Perkins to step up his game and he responded with 11.9 points, 11.6 boards and 2.6 blocks per contest. He also did a pretty good job on Dwight Howard, who had his worst numbers of the playoffs against the Celtics.

8. David Lee, Knicks
30th pick in 2005
Isiah Thomas couldn’t make a good trade to save his life, but he could spot talent in the draft. Lee has turned out to be a steal with the last pick in the 2005 draft. He’s an athletic lefty whose best traits are his hustle and smarts. In just his fourth season, Lee averaged 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which made him one of the most consistent double-double guys in the league. His stock is so high right now that the Knicks might be able to use him as trade bait in order to land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. Maybe they’d be better off sticking with Lee…

7. Gerald Wallace, Bobcats
25th pick in 2001 (drafted by the Kings)
Even though he plays in Charlotte, Wallace has a reputation for being one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Throw in the fact that he’s a capable scorer (15.9 ppg last season) and you have one of the best all-around small forwards in the league. His jumper is improving (if slowly), but he’s at his best when he’s using his superior athleticism to attack the rim. If he had landed in a bigger market or for a better team, he wouldn’t be playing so far under the radar.

6. Andrei Kirilenko, Jazz
24th pick in 1999
AK-47 was named to just one All-Star game, but has made three All-Defensive teams. Let’s not forget that Kirilenko was Utah’s leading scorer in the 2002-03 season, the year before the arrival of Carlos Boozer. Then came Deron Williams, and Kirilenko has settled into a more complementary role as a key defender, shotblocker and rebounder. He has had an up-and-down few years in Utah, but the fact remains that he was one of the top picks of the late first round.

5. Tayshaun Prince, Pistons
23rd pick in 2002
At Kentucky, Prince was known more for his offense than he was for his defense. The reverse has been true since he entered the league in 2002. He was named to the All-Defensive 2nd Team four straight times, while averaging better than 13.2 points per game for the last five seasons. His jumper is ugly, but it goes in, as evidenced by his 40% accuracy from long range last season. Simply stated, he is one of the most productive “glue guys” in the league and he was instrumental in the Pistons’ solid run over the last seven years.

4. Kevin Martin, Kings
26th pick in 2004
Here’s a guy that has made himself into one of the best scorers in the league. He has always possessed great quickness, but has gone from shooting 20% behind the arc in his rookie season to just over 41% last season. He can score in a multitude of ways and was second in the league in free throws attempted with 10.3 per game (behind Dwight Howard and ahead of Dwyane Wade). Moreover, he’s just 26, so he has room to grow.

3. Josh Howard, Mavericks
29th pick in 2003
Sure, he’s kind of a knucklehead, but there’s no doubt that Howard has game. He slipped in the draft because of an apparent lack of upside. When he came out of college, he wasn’t a superb athlete and wasn’t great at any one thing, but he was a very good all-around player, which is why he won the ACC Player of the Year in his senior season at Wake Forest. In the NBA, he has steadily improved his offensive repertoire and has a reputation for being one of the better defensive small forwards in the league. He was named to the All-Star game in 2007 and is often used as evidence that it’s not always smart to pass on a proven college upperclassman for perceived upside.

2. Rajon Rondo, Celtics
21st pick in 2006 (drafted by the Suns)
Rondo slipped in the ’06 draft due to concerns about his non-existent jumper. As a second-year player, he successfully molded his game to fit with veterans Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to help lead the Celtics to a title in 2008. He was named to the All-Defensive team in 2009, and when Garnett went out with a knee injury late in the year, Rondo turned it on come playoff time. In the first round against the Bulls, he averaged a stellar 19.4 points, 11.6 assists and 9.3 rebounds, including two triple-doubles. Due to his work ethic, energy and the tutelage of Doc Rivers, he’s quickly becoming one of the best young point guards in the game. But can he keep this career trajectory once the Big Three start departing and defenses can afford to pay more attention to him?

1. Tony Parker, Spurs
28th pick in 2001
Parker is just 27 and already has had an illustrious career. He has been named to three All-Star games, and was the Finals MVP in 2007 when it became apparent that the Cavs didn’t have a guy that could stay in front of him. In fact, there are very few players in the league who can effectively defend Parker, who is one of the very best at getting to the rim in transition and off the pick and roll. He has helped the Spurs win three titles, and it has been interesting to see his transformation from a 19 year-old rookie to wily veteran over the past eight seasons. It will be even more interesting to see how he adjusts to being “The Guy” as Tim Duncan gets older and less productive. Parker went late in the first round because he was a foreigner (remember, international scouting was not as sharp in 2001) and because he was/is short and slight. But he really benefited from the rules changes that reduced hand checking on the perimeter and has flourished since he joined the league.

Honorable Mention: Nate Robinson, Boris Diaw, Delonte West, Rudy Fernandez, Morris Peterson, Samuel Dalembert, Leandro Barbosa, Courtney Lee, Jarrett Jack, Kenny Thomas, John Salmons, Jordan Farmar, George Hill, Linas Kleiza and Beno Udrih.

What can we draw from this list?

1. There are four small forwards — Howard, Kirilenko, Wallace and Prince — that are all known more for their defense than their offense, and Howard and Prince both scored in the high teens in college.

2. There are three point guards on the list. Two were deemed too small (Parker and Brooks) and the other couldn’t shoot (Rondo).

3. There is a power forward (Lee) and an off guard (Martin) who are known for their tremendous work ethics. Lee is a big-time hustler on the court and Martin is a gym rat who has transformed himself into one of the best scorers in the league.

4. There’s a 6’10” center (Perkins) who came to the NBA straight out of high school. It’s especially tough to find a good big late in the first round, as anyone with size and talent is usually long gone by now. Check out this list of 6’10” or taller players that were drafted in the late first round over the last 10 years: Pavel Podkolzine, Iakovos Tsakalidis, Kosta Koufos, Dalibor Bagaric, Primoz Brezec, Johan Petro, Mamadou NDiaye, Tiago Splitter, David Harrison, Samuel Dalembert, Jeff Foster, Nenad Krstic, Ryan Anderson, Josh Boone, Brian Cook, Serge Ibaka, Ian Mahinmi, Donte Greene, Leon Smith and Joel Freeland. While there are a few contributors on that list, the vast majority ride the bench or aren’t even in the league.

The lesson? Go small. Look for a player with an impressive work ethic. Try to find someone that has the physical tools to play good defense or a point guard that is too quick to be covered. These are the types of players that seemed flawed, but have the potential to develop into first round steals.