This year, I’m going to preview the NBA season by starting with the lowest of the low and working my way up to my Finals picks. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff also-ran, I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason.
#5: Orlando Magic
Doesn’t it seem like the mojo that the Magic had a couple of seasons ago is long gone? The Vince Carter trade backfired and the supporting pieces don’t seem to fit as well as they used to. Rashard Lewis is coming off his worst season in a decade, and the team didn’t do much of anything to improve in an offseason where the rest of the East got a lot better. That said, there’s still a lot of talent in Orlando and they’ll compete each and every night, assuming the players don’t start to tune Stan Van Gundy out. But unless Dwight Howard suddenly finds a go-to post move, I don’t see the Magic getting out of the East when they have to get by the Heat, Celtics and Bulls. Cap-wise, Orlando’s payroll is bloated ($94 million) and there’s no relief in sight until the Summer of 2013, when Lewis finally comes off the books. More and more, the Magic are starting to resemble the Dallas Mavericks. A huge payroll can buy lots of talent, but it can’t buy a championship.
#4: Oklahoma City Thunder
I hesitate putting the young Thunder this high, but OKC took the Lakers to seven games last spring and Kevin Durant’s performance at this summer’s FIBA World Championships indicates that he’s hasn’t yet reached his ceiling. Throw in and improving Russell Westbrook and the fact that the West is going to be a bit down with the loss of Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer (and potentially Carmelo Anthony), and the Thunder could very well finish the season with the second-best record in the conference. They could just as easily finish #7 or #8, which goes to show how much parity there is in the conference. Barring a banged up Kobe or Pau Gasol, I don’t see the Thunder getting past the Lakers (or the Heat or Celtics, for that matter), but they are more than capable of making a deep run if all goes well. OKC also has one of the best payroll situations in the league, and are projected to have about $24 million in cap space next summer. On the whole, the future looks very bright for Durant and Co.
