Thus far, I’m 6-2 in the playoffs so you know my motto: There’s no better time to fade me than right now. I batted .500 in the regular season so the other shoe might be ready to drop.
NFC Championship: Packers (-3.5) @ Bears, 3:00PM ET
While everyone focuses on Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler, I think the defenses will decide this game. Statistically, this is a game the Packers should probably win and win rather easily. But this is their third straight road trip and they’ve been playing playoff-type games for over a month now. (At least when you consider they needed to win their final two home games just to qualify for the postseason.) Factor in the weather, the Bears’ home field advantage and the potentially sloppy field conditions and you might as well throw stats out the window. There are, however, two stats that I’d like to focus on when it comes to these two teams and that’s opponent red zone scoring percentage. The Bears are allowing their opponents to score just 50% of the time in the red zone, while the Packers are even more impressive when it comes to that stat, allowing teams to score just 48.65% of the time. This game has low scoring written all over it.
THE PICK: UNDER 43.5
AFC Championship: Jets @ Steelers (-3.5), 6:30PM ET
I’ll fully admit that I wouldn’t mind seeing another Jets upset. I like Rex Ryan and I would love to hear the trash that comes out of his mouth for two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. But the Jets have to be worn out after playing two emotionally draining games on the road. Their defense can hang with anyone but the Steelers don’t lose in Pittsburgh at this time of year. After the Patriots failed to lay a hand on him last week, Pittsburgh will bring the noise against Mark Sanchez this week and force him to make some poor decisions. I think the Jets ran out of steam at this time last year and they sure acted like their Super Bowl was won last Sunday. I’m picking the Steelers, but they have a habit of bending bettors when it comes to the spread so I wouldn’t be surprised if they only won by a field goal.
THE PICK: STEELERS –3.5
