Tag: 2009-10 College Basketball (Page 2 of 19)

Duke edges Butler, 61-59

It was a storybook finish for Brian Zoubek.

Something of a punch line for most of his four-year career at Duke, the light suddenly went on midway through his senior season. The game slowed down for the 7’1″ center and he quickly became a force defensively and on the glass.

And he needed every inch of that big frame tonight. With just seconds remaining and Duke nursing a one-point lead, Butler’s best player, Gordon Hayward, drove into the lane. Zoubek helped off his man and forced Hayward into a difficult fadeaway jumper along the baseline that was a few inches too long. Zoubek was in the right spot to collect the rebound, and after a quick Butler foul, he had to make the long walk to the other end of the court to shoot a pair of free throws.

Having shot just 55% on the season, Zoubek nailed his first attempt to give Duke a two-point lead. He was then told by his coach to intentionally miss the second* so that Butler would have to gather the rebound and drive the length of the floor to attempt a game-winning shot from half court. Hayward did just that, and once again missed by a few inches. The shot hit the backboard and clanged off the front of the rim.

Just like that, Brian Zoubek became a national champion.

Duke’s “Big Three” — Kyle Singler (19 points, 9 rebounds, 3 blocks), Jon Scheyer (15 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists) and Nolan Smith (13 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds) — certainly deserve much of the credit, but the Blue Devils would not have won the title tonight without the play of their big men, and Zoubek led the way. His eight points and 11 boards were huge; his play was especially noticeable in the second half when Duke only yielded two offensive rebounds. (Butler had 10 offensive rebounds in the first half.)

Butler’s man-to-man defense was outstanding. The Blue Devils committed 13 turnovers and shot just 29% from long range. But Duke’s defense was just as good, forcing the Bulldogs into 35% shooting.

It was a back-and-forth, white knuckle affair. Just when it looked like Duke might pull away, the Bulldogs would make a couple of plays to cut the lead back to one. It was just a great, great game.

* This is a decision that I don’t agree with when there is 3+ seconds remaining — I’d rather go up three and have the worst-case scenario be overtime.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Duke/Butler Preview

Immediately after the games on Saturday, I wrote the following about tonight’s matchup between Duke and Butler:

Monday night’s matchup will be touted as a David versus Goliath affair, but Duke and Butler are pretty similar in the way they play. Both teams hang their hats on good man-to-man half court defense and efficient, ball-control offense. It should be a low-scoring, tight game. I expect that Duke will be favored by five or six, but Butler is fully capable of pulling the upset. I’m sure the crowd will be pulling for the Bulldogs.

The line started at Duke -7, but has grown to -7.5 with the news that Butler center Matt Howard is questionable to play after suffering the “mildest of mild concussions” (per the Butler trainer). The Bulldogs will need Howard to pull the upset, because Duke is very big down low. Luckily, it looks like Shelvin Mack will play despite missing a good part of the second half against Michigan State with pain in his legs.

Jeff Sagarin pegs Duke as an almost 9-point favorite, so there still is some value with taking the Blue Devils even with the sizable line. Ken Pomeroy gives Duke an 81% chance to win, which is the biggest advantage of any favorite in the tournament since the Wisconsin/Cornell game (and we all know how that turned out).

I’m reluctant to recommend laying the points because Butler has a way of keeping games close. Both teams play at a slow pace, but I have a feeling that Duke will look to push the ball and try to avoid facing the Bulldogs’ excellent man-to-man defense in the half-court. Against West Virginia, Duke won the rebounding battle (+3) and, more importantly, destroyed the Mountaineers from long range (13-25 from 3PT). In fact, they shot almost 53% from the field for the entire game.

To pull the upset, Butler needs to hold its own on the glass and force the Blue Devils to shoot a poor percentage from long range. This is going to be tough to do, especially if Howard is limited or doesn’t play.

These two teams pride themselves on tough defense and good execution on offense. Duke is just a little better at it. Butler should have the crowd on its side, but it’s tough to create much atmosphere at the Final Four and Duke has plenty of experience playing in front of hostile crowds. I see a close game where Duke’s lead oscillates between 3-5 points most of the way and then the Blue Devils may be able to stretch things out if Butler is forced to foul.

As usual, I’ll be tweeting during the game tonight, so be sure to check back at tip-off.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Writers Q&A: The Final Four questions

I’m going to pretend I work for ESPN and answer the questions that the Worldwide Leader asked its college basketball writers.

What are you most looking forward to Saturday?

Seeing just what kind of crowd Butler is able to draw and whether or not it helps Bulldogs beat Michigan State. Final Four crowds are notoriously corporate and laid back, so if the Butler faithful (and the newly converted) can create some real home court atmosphere, it will make things tough for Michigan State. I’ll also be watching how the Bulldogs handle playing in a dome; they’re used to playing in smaller gyms and fieldhouses in the Horizon League.

At the end of the day, whose performance will we be talking about?

There are a long list of possibilities, but Nolan Smith is playing excellent basketball of late. He’s the only Duke guard that will be able to get into the lane and create his own shot, and his floater will be very useful against West Virginia’s zone. And for all of the talk of Jon Scheyer’s “clutch-ness,” Smith isn’t afraid to take the big shot either.

Butler-Michigan State: Who wins and why?

Despite the Spartans’ experience, I think the Bulldogs win a tight one. They’ve already beat two teams (Syracuse, K-State) that are better than Michigan State, so they appear to be the better team. The question is — can they put all the distractions and the sheer magnitude of the game behind them and just play ball? I think they can.

Duke-West Virginia: Who wins and why?

I have a feeling this game will be nip-and-tuck the entire way with the Blue Devils pulling away at the end with a big three and excellent free throw shooting. Even though it was a 2-3, Baylor’s zone will get Duke ready to face the Mountaineers’ 1-3-1. I don’t expect West Virginia to continue to shoot the three like they did against Kentucky — Duke is excellent at guarding the arc.

Be sure to check back around tip-off — I’ll be tweeting during both games.

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