Tag: 2009-10 College Basketball (Page 10 of 19)

Joe Lunardi’s Bubble Teams: Saturday Morning

Here are Joe Lunardi’s bubble teams as of Saturday morning.

Last Four In

* Virginia Tech
* Illinois
* Washington
* Rhode Island

First Four Out

* Minnesota
* Mississippi State
* Ole Miss
* Seton Hall

Next Out

* Arizona State

Illinois, Washington, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Mississippi State are all play today in their respective conference tournaments so they can help or hurt their chances. Minnesota beat Illinois in Champaign, and the two teams otherwise have similar resumes, so it seems like the Gophers should get the nod over the Illini, assuming both teams fare about the same today. Washington doesn’t have a signature win, but neither does Mississippi State (though they played Kentucky tough) or Rhode Island. The Rams’ resume might be the least impressive: 9-7 in the Atlantic 10, 0-3 against the top 25, 1-4 against the top 50.

For those that are arguing for tournament expansion, this is a reason to keep things the way they are. None of the teams that are on this list are great teams. While they are certainly capable of making some noise, they’ve all had plenty of opportunity to play themselves into a bid and haven’t yet secured a spot. If expansion does indeed happen, all of these teams would all have already secured bids, so it will reduce the importance of the regular season and conference tournaments. These teams are playing with a sense of urgency that has made this week far more exciting.

Be sure to check back on Monday evening for my annual bracket column. It’s going to be a fun few weeks.

Couch Potato Alert (3/13)

Look at this list of games slated for Championship Saturday…

(All times ET.)

1 PM: #2 Kentucky/#13 Tennessee – ABC
1 PM: #17 Temple/Rhode Island – CBS CS
1:30 PM: #4 Duke/Miami – ESPN
1:40 PM: #7 Ohio St./Illinois – CBS
3 PM: #23 Vanderbilt/Mississippi St. – ABC
3:30 PM: Richmond/Xavier – CBS CS
4 PM: #5 Purdue/Minnesota – CBS
6 PM: #1 Kansas/#9 Kansas St. – ESPN
6 PM: Washington/California – CBS
7 PM: San Diego St./UNLV – VS
9 PM: #6 West Virginia/#22 Georgetown – ESPN

Every team listed is either a tourney team or a bubble team, save for Miami, who are hoping to get an automatic bid by winning the ACC tournament. There are two future #1 seeds (Kansas and Kentucky) along with five wannabes (Duke, Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas State and Purdue).

It should be a fun Saturday indeed.

Joe Lunardi’s Bubble Teams: Friday Night

Here are Joe Lunardi’s bubble teams as of 8:30 PM PT on Friday night:

Last Four In

* San Diego State
* Illinois
* Washington
* Ole Miss

First Four Out

* Arizona State
* Memphis
* Rhode Island
* Seton Hall

Next Three Out

* Dayton
* Mississippi State
* Minnesota

SDSU likely gets in after beating #8 New Mexico for the second time this season. Ole Miss loses to Tennessee, but Mississippi State beats Florida — do the Bulldogs take the Rebels spot? Rhode Island is still alive in the A-10 tourney and Minnesota beat Michigan State in overtime, which puts extra pressure on Washington tonight in their game versus Stanford.

The race for the #1 seeds

Being a #1 seed isn’t crucial, but it is important. Seventeen of the last 29 national champions were #1 seeds, so being a top seed would seem to give a team inside track on a title. (However, these are the top teams in the country, so we expect them to perform well.)

SI’s Seth Davis, who by the way I’ll be interviewing next Tuesday, discusses the current projected #1 seeds and how things can change over the next two and a half days.

Are Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse all going to be No. 1 seeds even if they lose their first game in their conference tournaments?

Not necessarily. You’ll recall that back in 2007, UCLA entered the Pac-10 tournament as everybody’s overall No. 1 seed. The Bruins lost to California in the quarterfinals and ended up as a 2 seed. It obviously didn’t cause much of a problem for them as they still reached the national championship game (where they lost to Florida), but if any of the Big Three repeat that feat, I’d say there’s a better chance than not they would fall to the 2 line.

Does Duke have the inside track to a No. 1 seed if it wins the ACC tournament?

Not necessarily. Kansas State could ring a few bells if it upsets Kansas en route to the Big 12 title, but the real threat to Duke’s claim to a No. 1 is West Virginia. My colleague Andy Glockner is the only bracket expert I’ve seen to peg West Virginia as a 1 seed right now, but while I disagree with that assessment as things stand today, the Mountaineers would almost assuredly vault to a 1 seed if they win the Big East tournament, especially if it includes a victory over Syracuse. Heading into their respective conference tourneys, Duke is 7-4 against the top 50 of the RPI and 15-4 against the top 100, while West Virginia is 6-4 and 15-6. Duke’s worst loss is at No. 104 N.C. State while West Virginia’s is at home against No. 61 UConn. Throw in a win over Syracuse and the Mountaineers would — and should — come out on top.

Incidentally, the other candidate, Villanova, would probably not vault over Duke if the Wildcats win the Big East tournament. Villanova is 5-5 against the top 50 and 13-6 against the top 100.

Syracuse’s #1 seed is in some jeopardy after dropping its game to Georgetown. It’s not often that a team enters the tournament as a #1 seed after losing two straight (or three of its last seven). After losing to Louisville at home, the Orange did beat Villanova and Georgetown before losing to Louisivlle to end the regular season and dropping its first Big East tourney game against the Hoyas. It would be tough for the committee to give West Virginia a #1 seed (over the Orange) seeing as Syracuse beat the Mountaineers in Morgantown, 72-71.

Kansas and Kentucky look safe. We can cross Villanova off the list of potential #1s after the Wildcats lost to Marquette in the Big East Championship. That leaves Duke, West Virginia, Purdue and Kansas State. If any of those teams go on to with their respective conference tournaments, a case could be made that they should get the fourth #1 seed.

Illinois edges Wisconsin, punches NCAA bid

They should be tournament-bound, anyway.

Joe Lunardi had the Illini as his last team in this morning, so after a good 58-54 bounce-back win against a resilient Wisconsin team, Illinois should be dancing next week.

It was just one of those days for the Badgers, who couldn’t buy a shot until the final few minutes of the game. To illustrate the point, Wisconsin had just 38 points in the first 38 minutes and then scored 16 points in the final 1:46. Trevon Hughes, Jason Bohannon and Jordan Taylor went a combined 8-35 (23%) from the field and as a team, Wisconsin shot 29% for the game. Give Illinois credit — they were playing defense like their tournament lives depended on it…and it did.

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