Offseason Movement: The Mavs’ big move was to jettison Avery Johnson and hire Rick Carlisle as head coach. They also acquired Shawne Williams from the Pacers. Of course, last February the team traded Devin Harris and two first round picks for Jason Kidd. Kidd’s return to Dallas didn’t get off to a very good start.
Keep Your Eye On: Jason Kidd, PG
Kidd is in the final year of his contract (worth $21 million) so if things don’t go well to start the season, it’s not inconceivable that the Mavs could cut bait and trade him before the February deadline. The team is attempting to build around Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry, but all three players have topped out and it doesn’t look like they’ll be enough to get the Mavs over the hump. What’s worse – the Mavs gave up their best young prospect (Harris) to acquire Kidd, so if that experiment fails, the Mavs will not only have screwed themselves in the present, but they’ll have screwed themselves in the future, too.
The Big Question: Is this group good enough?
Nowitzki is still an All-Star caliber player and Howard and Kidd make up a more than adequate supporting cast. But there’s something missing with this group. Call it toughness, moxy, swagger, heart, whatever. I just don’t get the sense from this team that they have what it takes to make it to the Finals again. It’s sad, really, considering that, if not for the officials’ decision to send Dwyane Wade to the line for every ticky-tack foul, the Mavs would have beat the Heat in the Finals three years ago. Dirk should go down as one of the league’s all-time greatest players, but his team’s failure to close the deal in the 2006 Finals has seemingly sent the franchise into a tailspin. And no one, not Mark Cuban, not Avery Johnson, and not Jason Kidd, has been (or will be) able to pull them out of it.
Outlook: Desperate. Cuban is pulling out all the stops (i.e. mortgaging the franchise’s future) to win now. The Kidd trade was bold but ill-advised, as it undermined the long-term competitiveness of the club. Devin Harris is a good young point guard with loads of potential, and that kind of player is tough to come by. Now Cuban has hitched his wagon to a 35 year-old point guard whose best years are (far) behind him. This has the makings for a slow, steady decline.
Tag: 2008 NBA Team Previews (Page 3 of 6)
Offseason Movement: The team acquired two big names via the draft. Michael Beasley should play a ton of minutes right away and Mario Chalmers is a nice point guard prospect. The Heat also signed three-point specialist James Jones and signed Shaun Livingston to a two-year deal.
Keep Your Eye On: Michael Beasley, F
In many ways, the Heat’s playoff chances rely heavily on how quickly the talented scoring forward can adjust to the NBA game. He is averaging over 15 points and 48% shooting in preseason, so all signs point to a ROY-type season. Beasley can score from just about anywhere on the court and he and Dwyane Wade should provide a formidable one-two punch.
The Big Question: Can Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley co-exist?
Conventional wisdom states that Marion and Beasley play the same position so therefore one of them (Marion) has to go. But in today’s NBA, I see no reason why the two can’t play together on Miami’s frontline. Beasley is a player that has to have the ball in his hands. You run plays for him, you throw it to him in the post, whatever. Conversely, Marion is an energy player who gets most of his points on the break, on offensive rebounds or spotting up in the corner for a three-point shot. The Marion trade talk is already hot and heavy, and there are two things working against the Matrix sticking around in Miami – his age and his asking price. He’s 30, so does he really fit into Miami’s rebuilding plan? Is Miami really rebuilding or could they contend in the next 1-3 seasons? If so, it might be wise to hold onto Marion if the trio gels. If not, the Heat will almost certainly trade Marion, though finding a taker might be tough considering his asking price. A Marion for Lamar Odom swap makes a lot of sense for both teams. The other option is to let Marion go, which will free up a ton of cap space next summer.
Outlook: With Wade, Beasley and Shawn Marion, the Heat have a very scary lineup at the 2-3-4. If all three – but especially Wade – can stay healthy, and they can get decent play at center ant point guard, Miami will make some noise. I’m sure I will take some flack for picking the Heat to finish ahead of the Cavs, but I just like Wade’s supporting cast a lot more. It’s not that Miami is deeper, it’s just that Marion and Beasley are probably better than the next two guys on Cleveland’s roster. Honestly, things are so tight in the middle third of the league that it doesn’t really matter.
Offseason Movement: The two big additions this offseason were Rudy Fernandez, a versatile Manu Ginobili-like Spanish wing and Jerryd Bayless, a University of Arizona combo guard dripping with potential. In addition, the team will get Greg Oden back from an injury that knocked him out of the 2007-08 season.
Keep Your Eye On: Rudy Fernandez
Based on his play against Team USA in Beijing, I think Fernandez is ready to contribute now. He might be a little short (6’5”) to play small forward, but if the team elects to put Brandon Roy and Fernandez on the wing, they’ll be a formidable duo. Fernandez has a nice jumper and is athletic enough to take it to the rack. (He even dunked on Dwight Howard in the Olympics.)
The Big Question: How quickly will the Blazers mature?
A quick look at the team’s core reveals the Blazers’ biggest fault, and maybe its biggest strength: Roy (24 years-old), Oden (20), LaMarcus Aldridge (23), Bayless (20), Martell Webster (21), Fernandez (23), Travis Outlaw (24), Channing Frye (25). They are young. This group could be destined for great things, but it’s a matter of experience and maturity.
Outlook: Bright. Kevin Pritchard has done a wonderful job remaking this roster in short order. The coup was landing Brandon Roy, who turned out to be an All-Star caliber guard. Obviously, the addition of Greg Oden (assuming he pans out as expected) should give the franchise two stars to build around. And even though the team currently has a huge payroll ($81 million), a good portion of that ($38) is being paid to guys that aren’t even on the team anymore. The Blazers project to have a ton of cap space in the summer of 2010, when a number of stars will hit the free agent market. In fact, aside from the fact that Portland is not Brooklyn, the Blazers might represent LeBron James’ best shot at a championship. (Don’t worry, Nets fans, I don’t think that Portland is a big enough of a market for King James.)
Offseason Movement: The Cavs swung a good deal by trading Damon Jones and Joe Smith (to the Bucks and Thunder, respectively) for Mo Williams, a dynamic scoring point guard who can also pass the ball (17.2 ppg, 6.3 apg). It’s not clear just how much he’ll get to handle the ball, but the Cavs would be wise to let him take some of the offensive load off of LeBron. Williams was basically a salary dump by the Bucks, who just signed him to a long deal in the summer of 2007, so the Cavs are rolling the dice that he’s worth the dough.
Keep Your Eye On: LeBron’s mood
We’re still two years away, but the time is drawing near. LeBron can opt out of his contract in the summer of 2010, which gives the Cavs two years to make some serious progress. It’s possible that he’ll make his decision after this season, and barring a huge season for the Cavs in 2009-10, he may bolt for Brooklyn or some other destination. The Cavs would like the media to stop talking about this possibility, but the ticking clock is only going to get louder and louder.
The Big Question: Is this team good enough to make a run?
I like the Mo Williams trade, but there’s no guarantee that he and LeBron will jive. The Cavs have a nice yet unexciting roster. Delonte West and Daniel Gibson bring some backcourt punch off the bench, Wally Szczerbiak may or may not have anything left in the tank and Ben Wallace and Zydrunas Ilgauskas make for an aging (and slow) frontcourt. Chemistry will be key.
Outlook: Barring an injury to LeBron, the Cavs will make the playoffs, but how deep will they go? With the Celtics still the cream of the crop in the East, with Philly adding Elton Brand, with Toronto adding Jermaine O’Neal, with the Heat adding Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley, it’s not going to be a cakewalk. I don’t know what it’s like in Cleveland, but from afar, I just get this overwhelming feeling of dread surrounding LeBron’s future. Another Finals appearance might be the only thing that can quiet the pessimists.
Offseason Movement: The Raptors turned their depth at point guard (T.J. Ford) into a former All-Star big man (Jermaine O’Neal) in a nice trade that could really pan out if O’Neal can stay healthy. He has two years and $44 million remaining on his contract, so it’s a risky move, but if he can play 70 or 80 games, he’ll really give a big boost to the Toronto frontline.
Keep Your Eye On: Jose Calderon, PG
It was Calderon’s fine play (PER: 20.51, #5 amongst point guards) that made Ford expendable. He played 30 minutes a game last season, and will be asked to increase that to 35-38 minutes. That extra PT will give Calderon the opportunity to become a star. Last season, he averaged 11.2 points and 8.2 assists, while shooting 52% from the field and 43% from long range. In short, he’s the quintessential point guard that is flying way under the radar.
The Big Question: Are the Raptors tough enough to take that next step?
With a projected starting lineup of Calderon, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Chris Bosh and O’Neal, there’s no doubt that there is plenty of talent in Toronto, but do they have the mental toughness to win a series or two in the playoffs? That’s the next step that this team has to prove it can make.
Outlook: If O’Neal, Calderon and Bosh can stay healthy, the Raptors are a pretty much a shoe-in for the playoffs. However, with Boston and Philly, the Atlantic is looking like the toughest division in the East, so if they falter or suffer a bad injury or two, it’s not inconceivable that Toronto could be fighting for a postseason berth in April.
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