Offseason Movement: The Sixers probably had the biggest “get” of the offseason when they signed Elton Brand to a long-term deal. So the same team that gave the Pistons a good run in the playoffs is now adding an All-Star caliber player who, along with Kevin Garnett and Chris Bosh, might be the best power forward in the East.
Keep Your Eye On: Thaddeus Young
At just 19 and largely ignored, Young had the highest PER of any rookie in the league who played at least 1,000 minutes. He only saw limited minutes in the first two months of the season, but by February, he was seeing 29 minutes a game and was posting an average of 11.2 points and 4.7 rebounds per game while shooting a stellar 56% from the field. He has an improving long-range jumper and, simply stated, Young has “future star” written all over him.
The Big Question: Can Brand (and Andre Iguodala) lead this team to the Finals?
The Brand signing was a coup for the Sixers, and now that they’ve locked up both Brand and AI2 to big, long-term contracts, one wonders if they hitched their wagon to the right pair of horses. Both guys are very good NBA players, but neither guy has proven that he can be “The Man” on a championship-caliber team. The next two or three seasons will be each player’s best chance to win a title, and it’s going to be interesting to see how this young team develops over this span.
Outlook: Upbeat. While the Brand acquisition looks great on paper, it’s tough to add such a big name and expect everything to go smoothly from the get-go. Brand is coming off a nasty Achilles injury, and while he played well in limited action last season, there’s no guarantee that he’s back to 100%. Still, if they are able to gel, they look like a legitimate contender in the East. They have a strong starting five (including Young, Andre Miller and Samuel Dalembert) and a good bench, and even without Brand, they proved they could compete with the Pistons in the playoffs. All signs point to a nice year.
Tag: 2008 NBA Preview (Page 3 of 7)
Offseason Movement: The Pistons’ biggest offseason signing was Kwame Brown. That’s right…Kwame Brown.
Keep Your Eye On: The Pistons’ age
Chauncey Billups (32), Rip Hamilton (30), Rasheed Wallace (34) and Antonio McDyess (34) are all at the end of or past their respective primes, so the Pistons are going to hit the wall, it’s just a matter of when. Will it be this season? The team does have some youth in Tayshaun Prince (28), Rodney Stuckey (22), Jason Maxiell (25) and Amir Johnson (21), but Prince is the only completely dependable player on that list. Stuckey has a chance to be a star, but he’s going to be playing behind Billups and Hamilton for the foreseeable future.
The Big Question: Does this group have another run in it?
After last season, it looked like the Pistons were going to make some big changes, but after a few rumored trades fell through, they’re left with pretty much the same roster as last season. So this leaves the Pistons in a tough spot. They’re good enough to (easily) make the playoffs, but are they good enough to make another Finals appearance?
Outlook: Fruitless. Unless everything breaks their way, it’s hard to see the Pistons making the Finals with this group. I like the roster, and when they’re firing on all cylinders, they’re very tough to beat. But they are at times complacent, and they’re just not good enough anymore to be giving games away in the playoffs. They almost lost to an upstart Philly team due to a lack of focus. Once again, they’ll make the playoffs and, once again, they’ll probably win their first round series, but barring a big leap by one of their young players, that’s probably as far as they’ll go.
Offseason Movement: The Magic were courting Corey Maggette for much of the offseason, but settled instead on Mickael Pietrus. With Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis surrounding Dwight Howard, the team needed an athletic off guard who can defend and Pietrus has the potential to be that guy. I say “potential” because the 26 year-old never quite fit in with Golden State, but the Magic are gambling that it had more to do with Don Nelson than Pietrus’ limitations. He’s a good shooter from the corner, and if he can improve his handle, he could develop a nice attack-the-basket game. He has all the tools to be a stopper defensively, but has thus far shown a propensity to commit way too many fouls.
Keep Your Eye On: Jameer Nelson
With Keyon Dooling gone, Nelson will likely be asked to play more minutes than he did last season (28.4). In the playoffs, he responded well to increased PT, posting 16.2 points and 4.7 assists in 33.3 minutes. Nelson is not a traditional playmaker, but he’s a good fit for what the Magic are trying to do. The team needs shooters to give Howard the space to work down low, and Nelson can most certainly shoot it (42% 3PT last season). At 26, it’s going to be interesting to see if he makes the next step or if his game has already topped out.
The Big Question: Does Orlando have enough of a bench to compete with the East’s best?
I really like Orlando’s starting five, but the team projects to have Anthony Johnson, J.J. Redick, Keith Bogans, Tony Battie and Adonal Foyle anchoring the bench. Those names don’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of Eastern Conference opponents. With Nelson, Pietrus, Turkoglu, Lewis and Howard, the team can compete with any group of starters in the East, but it remains to be seen if the bench can hold its own with its counterparts.
Outlook: Good. Orlando has done a nice job of assembling a team that can compete in the East, but I wonder if/when the team will start to pay for the monster contract they gave Rashard Lewis two summers ago. Will it limit their ability to re-sign Turkoglu next year? If not, the team will be way over the cap and limited to mid-level exception-type players for the foreseeable future. If management is will to spend like that, fine, but if they’re going to start cutting costs to stay below the luxury tax threshold, they’re going to have to make some tough decisions. And the team can’t afford to lose a player of Turkoglu’s stature. If the team is going to make the leap and become one of the league’s best, it is going to have to re-sign its stars, draft really well from late in the first round and spend its mid-level wisely.
Offseason Movement: The Mavs’ big move was to jettison Avery Johnson and hire Rick Carlisle as head coach. They also acquired Shawne Williams from the Pacers. Of course, last February the team traded Devin Harris and two first round picks for Jason Kidd. Kidd’s return to Dallas didn’t get off to a very good start.
Keep Your Eye On: Jason Kidd, PG
Kidd is in the final year of his contract (worth $21 million) so if things don’t go well to start the season, it’s not inconceivable that the Mavs could cut bait and trade him before the February deadline. The team is attempting to build around Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry, but all three players have topped out and it doesn’t look like they’ll be enough to get the Mavs over the hump. What’s worse – the Mavs gave up their best young prospect (Harris) to acquire Kidd, so if that experiment fails, the Mavs will not only have screwed themselves in the present, but they’ll have screwed themselves in the future, too.
The Big Question: Is this group good enough?
Nowitzki is still an All-Star caliber player and Howard and Kidd make up a more than adequate supporting cast. But there’s something missing with this group. Call it toughness, moxy, swagger, heart, whatever. I just don’t get the sense from this team that they have what it takes to make it to the Finals again. It’s sad, really, considering that, if not for the officials’ decision to send Dwyane Wade to the line for every ticky-tack foul, the Mavs would have beat the Heat in the Finals three years ago. Dirk should go down as one of the league’s all-time greatest players, but his team’s failure to close the deal in the 2006 Finals has seemingly sent the franchise into a tailspin. And no one, not Mark Cuban, not Avery Johnson, and not Jason Kidd, has been (or will be) able to pull them out of it.
Outlook: Desperate. Cuban is pulling out all the stops (i.e. mortgaging the franchise’s future) to win now. The Kidd trade was bold but ill-advised, as it undermined the long-term competitiveness of the club. Devin Harris is a good young point guard with loads of potential, and that kind of player is tough to come by. Now Cuban has hitched his wagon to a 35 year-old point guard whose best years are (far) behind him. This has the makings for a slow, steady decline.
Offseason Movement: The team acquired two big names via the draft. Michael Beasley should play a ton of minutes right away and Mario Chalmers is a nice point guard prospect. The Heat also signed three-point specialist James Jones and signed Shaun Livingston to a two-year deal.
Keep Your Eye On: Michael Beasley, F
In many ways, the Heat’s playoff chances rely heavily on how quickly the talented scoring forward can adjust to the NBA game. He is averaging over 15 points and 48% shooting in preseason, so all signs point to a ROY-type season. Beasley can score from just about anywhere on the court and he and Dwyane Wade should provide a formidable one-two punch.
The Big Question: Can Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley co-exist?
Conventional wisdom states that Marion and Beasley play the same position so therefore one of them (Marion) has to go. But in today’s NBA, I see no reason why the two can’t play together on Miami’s frontline. Beasley is a player that has to have the ball in his hands. You run plays for him, you throw it to him in the post, whatever. Conversely, Marion is an energy player who gets most of his points on the break, on offensive rebounds or spotting up in the corner for a three-point shot. The Marion trade talk is already hot and heavy, and there are two things working against the Matrix sticking around in Miami – his age and his asking price. He’s 30, so does he really fit into Miami’s rebuilding plan? Is Miami really rebuilding or could they contend in the next 1-3 seasons? If so, it might be wise to hold onto Marion if the trio gels. If not, the Heat will almost certainly trade Marion, though finding a taker might be tough considering his asking price. A Marion for Lamar Odom swap makes a lot of sense for both teams. The other option is to let Marion go, which will free up a ton of cap space next summer.
Outlook: With Wade, Beasley and Shawn Marion, the Heat have a very scary lineup at the 2-3-4. If all three – but especially Wade – can stay healthy, and they can get decent play at center ant point guard, Miami will make some noise. I’m sure I will take some flack for picking the Heat to finish ahead of the Cavs, but I just like Wade’s supporting cast a lot more. It’s not that Miami is deeper, it’s just that Marion and Beasley are probably better than the next two guys on Cleveland’s roster. Honestly, things are so tight in the middle third of the league that it doesn’t really matter.
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