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      What Game 4 means for the Magic

      May 26, 2010 /

      Yes, the headline is that they avoided elimination and live to fight another day. Orlando’s odds of advancing have obviously gone up, but just how much? John Hollinger explains…

      The good news, however, is that they already accomplished the hardest part by winning Game 4. Teams down 3-0 have struggled mightily in that contest, but those with a home Game 5 haven’t faced as many problems. Historically, home-court advantage teams trailing 3-1 are 43-17 in Game 5, a 71.7 percent success rate.

      Should they survive Game 5, 36.7 percent of the home-court-advantage teams facing Game 6 elimination have prevailed. Combine the two probabilities and you get about a 1-in-4 shot for the Magic to become the fourth team in league history to force a seventh game after being down 3-0.

      The interesting thing about the Orlando/Boston series is that the Magic have two of the next three games at home. Most teams that fall down 0-3 are inferior to their opponents and probably don’t have home court advantage. But Orlando does have home court advantage and is arguably as talented as Boston. It’s a matter of effort and execution.

      Can the Magic come back? Absolutely. If I’m Stan Van Gundy, I tell my team that while it’s true no team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit, it’s going to happen someday, so why not today? It’s a cliche, but cliches exist for a reason — Orlando has to take this series one game at a time.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      External Sports, Fantasy Basketball, NBA

      Goodell to review Roethlisberger’s “behavioral evaluation” within the week

      May 26, 2010 /

      NFL commissioner Roger Goodell told the media at the owners meetings on Tuesday that he would review the behavioral evaluation he ordered as part of Ben Roethlisberger’s six-game suspension within a week. If Goodell determines that Big Ben has made progress, then he may allow the quarterback to rejoin the Steelers for offseason workouts.

      What I would like to know is what process Goodell is planning to take when determining whether or not Roethlisberger should have the privilege to return to his team. What is Goodell going to do, send Big Ben into a crowded bar filled with horny chicks to see if he’ll behave himself? I’m not trying to sound insensitive in light of the previous allegations against Roethlisberger, but seriously – how is Goodell going to know whether or not the QB is worthy enough to return to football?

      Furthermore, how is Goodell going to determine whether or not he should lighten Big Ben’s suspension from six to four games? Anyone can behave themselves for a month if they want something bad enough. Who’s to say that Roethlisberger has learned anything? Does Goodell have a couple of eagle scouts watching the quarterback’s every move?

      I guess Goodell will just have to go with his gut and trust that Roethlisberger has suffered enough embarrassment to have changed (or is in the process of changing). I don’t doubt that the commissioner is taking this matter seriously, but I would love to find out what constitutes Big Ben learning his lesson and therefore, what it is that he did to earn a four-game suspension over a six-game penalty if that is indeed the outcome here.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      External Sports, NFL

      Bill Simmons’ idiot’s guide to Russian Mark Cuban

      May 26, 2010 /

      I missed this column over the weekend, but it’s a pretty good read for those interested in the Nets’ new owner, Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov. Here is Simmons’ prediction for Prokhorov’s first offseason:

      Still, allow me two making-a-splash predictions for this summer. The first: MRMC pounces on Phil Jackson with an absolutely unfathomable offer. How unfathomable? Five years, $85 million. Yeah. That’s what I mean. Prokhorov is already on record as saying that he wants an NBA coach. Why not overpay to get one of the greatest ever? How could the Lakers possibly come close to matching that commitment? And why would Jackson say no to finishing his career in the New York area for the most lucrative coaching deal ever, BY FAR? I say the Godfather offer gets made, and I say Jackson takes it.

      Second, instead of chewing up Jersey’s cap space with overpaid free agents, I bet Prokhorov trades for Andrei Kirilenko — his former CSKA star, as well as an expiring 2011 contract of $17.82 million — in a deal that won’t cost Jersey anything because Utah (struggling to find money for Carlos Boozer) could easily replace Kirilenko with its lottery pick (No. 8 overall) and a second trade. For the Nets, even if they just rented Kirilenko and picked Georgia Tech’s Derrick Favors (the draft’s best power forward) at No. 3, that’s an intriguing short-term front line (Favors, Kirilenko and Brook Lopez) and they’d maintain flexibility for a run at Carmelo in 2011 and/or have Kirilenko’s expiring deal to shop this February. And it would go over big back home for Prokhorov. Win, win and win.

      That is a lot of money, but would Jackson agree to coach the Nets? I guess it would depend on how quickly they can turn the roster around. I’d say this is a long shot. But still, with Jerry Buss asking Jackson to take a pay cut, it would make a potentially huge raise pretty intriguing.

      The Nets missed out on the chance to draft John Wall, but they will have a shot at either Evan Turner or Derrick Favors at #3, or even DeMarcus Cousins if they decide that he’s not crazy enough to pass up. Cousins is more of a center, while I could easily see the developing Favors playing alongside Lopez. If Philly takes Favors #2, Turner would be a nice consolation prize, and he can play shooting guard if the Nets have their eye on Carmelo Anthony next summer.

      Regardless, the Nets are going to be an attracting landing spot for free agents over the next few years, especially when the move to Brooklyn finally happens. Players like to play for owners who are willing to spend to win, and there’s a great chance that the Nets will have one of the biggest payrolls within five years.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      External Sports, Fantasy Basketball, Humor, NBA, News

      Is Ichiro the most overrated hitter in baseball?

      May 26, 2010 /

      The Chicago Tribune polled a couple of writers on which hitters were the most overrated in MLB. Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun said Jose Reyes, while Mandy Housenick of The Morning Call went with Carl Crawford and Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times noted J.D. Drew.

      While some of the names were a little surprising, the award for biggest head-scratcher went to Phil Rogers of the Tribune, who said Ichiro was the most overrated.

      What’s the definition of “most overrated?” You could look at it just in terms of hitting ability, but in my opinion major league baseball is always about the money, so l’m going to consider it in relation to a hitter’s value to a team. That makes this an easy question, as Ichiro Suzuki — who you can argue is the best pure hitter in the game — is clearly the most overrated.

      What do his 200-plus hits every season — heavily loaded with singles — do for the Mariners? He had a majors-high 225 in 2009 and they scored the fewest runs in the AL. He’s again leading the majors with 58 hits (including 48 singles), and Seattle is 14-26. Singles hitters, even those with speed, need to be in deep lineups to realize their value.

      The drop in power numbers in recent years makes the guys who do regularly drive the ball to walls, and over walls, as valuable as they’ve ever been. A singles hitter in a bad lineup is a hood ornament on a beater. These days, that’s Ichiro.

      Rogers is basically penalizing Ichiro because he’s not what Adrian Gonzalez is to the Padres. Because he doesn’t hit for power, he can’t carry the M’s like can Gonzo can for San Diego, so therefore he’s overrated.

      Sorry, but that’s some backwards logic.

      Ichiro has never been considered a power guy and there’s a reason he has always hit at the top of Seattle’s lineup: He gets on base. That’s what the club pays him for and while Rogers may think that the M’s overpay for that service, Ichiro is what he is. It’s not his fault that the rest of the Mariners’ offensive is a collective of hot garbage.

      Plus, the Mariners have been built on pitching and defense because of their home park. They play small ball and Ichiro is the catalyst for their offense. Again, it’s not his fault that Seattle averages a fraction of a run every night. He’s doing his job, so what is Rogers looking for?

      Of all the names listed in the article, I’d have to agree with Shaikin’s choice of Drew for the most overrated. He’s making $14 million this season to essentially, as Shaikin so aptly put it, be a complementary player. The last time I checked, Drew hasn’t finished with an average over .300 since 2004, unlike Ichiro, who hasn’t hit less than .300 once since he’s been in the majors.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      External Sports, MLB

      Kenny Smith disregards my question

      May 26, 2010 /

      NBA PLAYOFFS

      Prior to Game 3, I submitted a few questions to NBA.com as part of the Blogger Q&A with Kenny Smith. On the heels of two substandard performances by Amare Stoudemire in L.A., one of the questions I posed to Smith was whether or not he was playing himself out of a max contract with his performance against the Lakers.

      Here’s what he had to say.

      D’oh! If you don’t like the question, Kenny, pick a different one! Come on!

      But I still wonder — even though Stoudemire will almost certainly sign a max deal this summer, is he really worth it?

      External Sports, Fantasy Basketball, Humor, NBA

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