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Despite largely being devoid of superstar talent, the Patriots continue to dominate thanks to Belichick

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Take the Patriots for example. They traded Randy Moss earlier this year and everyone thought their passing game would incinerate. “Who is going to stretch the field?” people asked. “Tom Brady doesn’t have anyone to throw to!” everyone quipped.

But as usual, Bill Belichick was 34 steps ahead of everyone and already knew how the Pats would survive without Moss. He already knew that Brady had already completed 72.2% of his passes for 367 yards and five touchdowns out of the two-tight end set and that his offense would run smoothly as long as Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski continued to develop. Sure, the approach would change but that didn’t mean it wouldn’t be effective.

Belichick also knew what kind of connection Brady had with Deion Branch, which is why he traded for his former player (how is it that the Patriots always get the player they’re targeting in trade? It’s unbelievable.) to help cope with losing Moss. And how crazy is it that Branch has emerged as a playmaker again while Moss is now trapped in NFL obscurity?

Actually, “crazy” isn’t the right word. Crazy would indicate that Belichick was fortunate that everything played out the way it did when he duped the Vikings into taking a useless Moss off his hands. But he wasn’t fortunate at all. He had a game plan and as usual, he executed it to perfection.

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Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 15

CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 12: Jerod Mayo  of the New England Patriots tackles Earl Bennett  of the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 12, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Patriots defeated the Bears 36-7. (Photo by Scott Boehm/Getty Images)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 14 picks fared:

#1 Falcons: 10 PA (6) + 5 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR = 13 fantasy points
#2: Patriots: 7 PA (6) + 2 SK + 2 INT + 2 FR + 1 RET TD = 18 fp
#3: Bills: 6 PA (8) + 1 SK + 1 INT + 2 FR = 12 fp

Now that’s more like it. DTBWW has been a little spotty this season, but it came through in a big way in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Truth be told, W14 was the best scoring week for defenses around the league — 14 DTs scored 10+ points, which was the most of any week this season.

On the season, my picks are averaging 8.0 | 8.9 | 7.6 (1st, 2nd, 3rd) for an overall average of 8.2 fantasy points per game. Those are DT6 numbers when you account for each team’s bye week.

Let’s take a look at my Week 15 picks keeping in mind that to be eligible, defenses must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. There are five DTs that I really like this week, so I’m going to list all five and hope that my readers can find at least one on their waiver wire this week:

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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 15

It’s playoff time!

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (Wednesday) when I’ll release my official Week 15 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Also, follow me on Twitter @fantasytips.

2010 NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - DECEMBER 12: Mark Sanchez  of the New York Jets picks himself up after an incomplete pass against the Miami Dolphins at New Meadowlands Stadium on December 12, 2010 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Finally, a team is offering stability at the top of the rankings.

Check out Week 14’s Power Rankings

1. New England Patriots
Previous Week: 1
This is the fourth week in a row I’ve had the Patriots in the top spot. I only mention that little factoid because before the Pats made their home atop Mount Power Rankings, the No. 1 spot acted as a revolving door for teams. New England is peaking at the right time, which has to be a scary thought for AFC playoff contenders. Tom Brady is unbeatable in blizzard-like conditions.

2. Atlanta Falcons
Previous Week: 2
Never before have I seen a team fly under the radar as well as the Falcons have this season (not that they have any control of that). Even when they’re supposed to blow out a team and do just that, people aren’t impressed. Everyone is waiting for this team to fall and in the meantime, the Falcons keep winning. Here’s the real interesting part: this team hasn’t even played a complete game yet.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Previous Week: 3
The Steelers’ defense is getting warmed up at just the right time, which is interesting because the Patriots’ offense is peaking now, too. We may be headed for a Pittsburgh-New England rematch soon enough.

4. New Orleans Saints
Previous Week: 4
The Saints’ defense is starting to have that opportunistic feel about them again. They picked off Sam Bradford twice inside the red zone last week and returned one of the gifts for a touchdown right before half. I’m sure Gregg Williams wishes his unit wouldn’t give up so much yardage with the playoffs fast approaching, but he has to be pleased with the amount of turnovers its now producing.

5. Baltimore Ravens
Previous Week: 6
The Ravens were lucky to escape Houston with a win on Monday night. Yes, they were up 28-7 early in the third quarter but they got too complacent and allowed the Texans to tie the game after 99 and 95-yard drives late in the fourth quarter. Houston had also stolen all the momentum heading into overtime so again, the Ravens were fortunate to make it out of Texas with a W. They have some issues to iron out before the playoffs.

6. Philadelphia Eagles
Previous Week: 8
Nice win for the Birds last Sunday night in Dallas. Andy Reid’s squad fell behind in the second half but never panicked and got a couple of monster plays out of Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson. That said, Vick is still taking too many hits, which has to be a concern for Reid with the Giants’ ferocious front seven on deck.

7. New York Giants
Previous Week: 10
The Giants’ performance Monday night in Minnesota wasn’t awe-inspiring from an Eli Manning standpoint, but Tom Coughlin had to love the way his running game destroyed a usually stout Minnesota front seven. The defense played incredibly well too, although most defenses will look good when the other team don’t use a quarterback. Either way, it was a huge win after a couple of days of chaos and with the Eagles game coming up. Now it’s gut-check time.

8. San Diego Chargers
Previous Week: 12
The Chargers caught the Matt Cassel-less Chiefs at the right time but they’re not out of the woods yet. Any Oakland-type meltdowns the rest of the way and San Diego will be home for the playoffs. Both KC and San Diego have cakewalk schedules the rest of the year, so the Bolts will just have to pray that their division rivals collapse in the final weeks.

9. Chicago Bears
Previous Week: 7
I’m not surprised the Bears lost to the Patriots last weekend. I’m surprised that they got the beating of a lifetime in what I consider “Chicago Bear conditions.” And I’m not referring to the weather, because Brady and the Pats obviously can play in the snow. I’m referring to the fact that the Bears and their fans absolutely love the underdog, we’re-better-than-everyone-says-we-are, nobody-gives-us-any-respect role. And then they go out their and they get destroyed on their home turf. Granted, if you’re going to get destroyed you might as well get destroyed by the best team in the league. I just expected more out of the eventual NFC North champs.

10. Green Bay Packers
Previous Week: 9
I hate when people say that a team is better than their record because hey, their record is their record. But in the case of the Packers, I happen to think it’s true. They’ve been decimated by injuries and yet, the numbers still suggest they’re better than their record would indicate. But no matter how you slice it, the Pack are in deep trouble. They travel to New England this Sunday night and if Aaron Rodgers (concussion) can’t go, Matt Flynn isn’t going to beat the Pats on their home turf. That means Green Bay must hope the Bears lose to the Vikings on Monday night. And with how poorly Minnesota played against the Giants, that’s a long shot. It appears as though all hopes have been dashed for this once promising team.

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Reward system the key to the Heat’s run?

Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade (3), forward LeBron James (6), and forward Chris Bosh take a break during a time out in the second half of the opening night game against the Boston Celtics at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts on October 26, 2010.  UPI/Matthew Healey Photo via Newscom

Per the Miami Herald

A simple reward system has contributed to the Heat’s current run of eight consecutive blowout victories.

If Dwyane Wade grabs a defensive rebound, he has the green light to do whatever he wants offensively. If LeBron James makes a defensive stop, he controls his own game on the other end of the court.

These are the parameters set by coach Erik Spoelstra, and the chance for offensive freedom has helped spark the most dominant winning streak in franchise history.

While this may be working during the regular season, I don’t know that grabbing a defensive rebound is worthy of being able to do whatever you want on the other end of the court, at least not against the best teams in the league. But if freelance by Dwyane Wade or LeBron James is better than the plays that Erik Spoelstra calls, then maybe it is the right way to do things. But that says more about the offensive game plan than it does the value of any reward system that may be in place.

The more I think about this team, given the injuries, I don’t see them getting past the Celtics in the playoffs…but we will see.

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