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Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hype

Man, the Cavaliers SUCK.

Eric Snow may be the most irrelevant starting point guard in the NBA. Damon Jones looks like nothing more than a three-happy gunner. Larry Hughes has apparently never met a jumper he didn’t like. And even with an improved roster, LeBron James tries to do way too much by himself. Worst of all, after watching Tony Parker shred the Cavs’ defense one trip down the floor after another, it’s clear Mike Brown hasn’t taught this team squat about playing D.

…

Okay, so now I’m overreacting to a 102-76 loss tonight after overreacting to a 109-87 win Wednesday night. Tonight’s game (on national TV, ugh) proved that Cleveland still has a long way to go, but the good news for Cavs fans is the season just started.

So was I hyping the Cavaliers too much Thursday night by saying they’ll overtake Indiana for the third seed in the East? I may very well have been. But I knew that Thursday night, and just like the win over the Hornets didn’t dramatically sway my opinion (I believed they had a chance at the #3 seed before the season started), tonight’s loss (on the road…against the defending champs) also has little effect on my outlook for this team. I still say they’ll be the East’s third seed.

But they’ve got a lot of work ahead of them.

Shame on you, NFL Sunday Ticket

As I sit here and ponder the future of my 1-6 Green Bay Packers, I am reminded of the blood pact that was signed by DirecTV and NFL Sunday Ticket last year. The deal is worth 3.5 billion over 5 years, averaging out to 700 millon per season. For that price, DirecTV buys exclusive access to NFL Sunday Ticket, making it impossible for non-DirecTV customers to enjoy any out-of-market games at home. Prior to the deal, I sent off several emails to the folks at NFL Sunday Ticket, asking why they disregard fans who do not (or are not able to) subscribe to DirecTV. I already know the answer – money. At 700 M per season, they would have to sell an additional 4.7 M Sunday Ticket subscriptions to offset the loss of the exclusive deal with DirecTV. Boy that seems like a lot, but divide that by the 32 NFL teams and it comes to around 150 K subscriptions per NFL market, which seems much more do-able. Consider that approximately 50% of Americans pay for cable television, only 1.6% of cable TV subscribers would have to subscribe to NFL Sunday Ticket to offset the difference.

Some fault lies with the cable companies. They had an opportunity to bid on access but they apparently scoffed at the asking price. DirecTV has to bid that much to stay afloat, otherwise they have little to offer over the other satellite and cable providers. But you have to wonder what NFL Sunday Ticket is thinking. Surely, they have close ties with the NFL – wouldn’t it be better for the league if more people had access to the games of their favorite team? Wouldn’t their ratings increase if fans can change the channel from a blowout on local television to a tight game in the fourth quarter of a game across the country?

As I mentioned earlier, my favorite team, the Packers, are 1-6. Do I want to go down to the local sports bar to watch their games with a bunch of screaming fans rooting against me? Not really. Would I watch the game at home? Absolutely. Can I? Nope, because I live in a condo and can’t point a dish at the Southern horizon. Thanks a lot, Sunday Ticket.

Week 9 Preview

Every week, I highlight a few marginal fantasy players, three to start and three to sit. Let’s see how I did last week:

START

Drew Brees, SD – 324 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT (HIT)
Brees was great against Kansas City, slicing and dicing his way to a big day – thanks to Antonio Gates.

Ronnie Brown, MIA – 118 total yards (HIT)
Brown shredded the Saints defense on his 23 carries but failed to score. Still, it was a good day for the rookie.

Jimmy Smith, JAX – 2 catches, 27 yards (MISS)
Smith continues his midseason lull. The Jaguars have a favorable schedule coming up, but if Smith can’t get more than two catches against the Rams, he may be in trouble.

BENCH

Eli Manning, NYG – 146 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (HIT)
The Giants didn’t need Manning to beat the Redskins and it’s a good thing because he was inaccurate completing only 12 of his 31 pass attempts.

Steven Jackson, STL – 200 total yards, 1 TD (MISS)
Boy, I was wrong about this one. I overestimated Jacksonville’s defense, which looked awful letting Jackson go off on his career day.

Derrick Mason, BAL – 7 catches, 91 yards (MISS)
He didn’t score, but he did enough to be productive in a league that awards one point per receptions so I’ll give myself a miss on Mason.

On to this week’s picks:

START

QB – Eli Manning, NYG
The Giants play San Francisco. Start Manning.

RB – Fred Taylor, JAX
Assuming he doesn’t come down with a mysterious ailment, Taylor should have a nice game against a Houston defense that is allowing 165 yards and 1.4 TDs per game on the ground.

WR – Braylon Edwards, CLE
HC Romeo Crennel has said that he’s going to give Edwards more opportunities and he should be able to have some success against a Tennessee pass defense that yields an average of 203 yards and 2.1 TDs through the air. Don’t bench a stud for him, but he should make a good #3 WR this week.

BENCH

QB – Aaron Brooks, NO
Brooks faces a stingy Bears pass defense that has only allowed 178 yards and 0.9 TDs per game. He’s a decent start if you have no other options, but if you have another good QB, it would be wise to bench Brooks.

RB – Curtis Martin, NYJ
Martin has a tough assignment against the Chargers run defense, which is only allowing 78 rushing yards per game. Hopefully for him, the Jets can keep the game close so they don’t abandon the run altogether.

WR – Keenan McCardell, SD
The Jets are pretty tough against the pass, only allowing 163 yards and 0.7 TDs per game through the air. McCardell might catch a few balls, but I think the Jets will keep him out of the endzone.

KEY INJURIES:

Aaron Stecker – Q
Andre Johnson – Q
Anquan Boldin – O
Antwaan Randle El – P
Az-Zahir Hakim – Q
Bobby Engram – P
Brandon Jacobs – Q
Brandon Jones – Q
Bubba Franks – P
Chad Johnson – P
Charles Woodson – O
Chris Cooley – P
Chris Perry – P
Corey Dillon – Q
Curtis Martin – P
Darrell Jackson – O
David Givens – Q
Domanick Davis – Q
Donovan McNabb – Q
Dre Bly – O
Drew Bennett – O
Ed Reed – D
Eric Parker – Q
Ernie Conwell – Q
Hines Ward – P
Jerome Bettis – D
Jevon Kearse – Q
Josh McCown – P
Justin McCareins – P
Ken Dorsey – P
Marcus Robinson – Q
Mark Brunell – P
Michael Jenkins – Q
Michael Pittman – Q
Mike Williams – Q
Preist Holmes – Q
Randy Moss – Q
Ray Lewis – O
Reggie Williams – P
Robert Ferguson – D
Roy Williams – Q
Rudi Johnson – P
Santana Moss – P
Stephen Davis – P
T.J. Duckett – Q
Terrell Owens – Q
Tom Brady – P
Vinny Testaverde – P
Willie Parker – P

The Colts will cover

This week, the undefeated Indianapolis Colts visit Foxboro to face the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Colts are favored by 3 points and I think the number is too low. Sure, the Pats won the Super Bowl last year and are playing at home, but their secondary is banged up, resulting in a defense that is 24th in the league in passing yards allowed. Oddly enough, they are 24th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, so the Colts should be able to move the ball with relative ease on the ground or through the air. In previous years, the Colts defense would keep the games close, but this season they are 4th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense.

A lot of people want to point to Bill Belichick and say that the Pats have a definite coaching advantage, but Tony Dungy is an underrated leader and I think he’ll have the Colts ready to play on Monday night. New England has struggled a bit with loss of former coordinators Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis, and even if Belichick is the best preparation coach in the league, I don’t think preparation alone is going to get them a win against the Colts. The game could be close, but I think the Colts will cover the spread without too much of a problem.

Fantasy wise, look for big games from the Colts offensive players while the New England rushing game may struggle a bit. Since he’ll probably be playing catchup, Tom Brady should have a decent day through the air, but I don’t think it will be enough to keep the game within a touchdown.

got Smush?

Sure, Kobe Bryant hit the game winner, but check out Smush Parker’s line from the Lakers’ 99-97 victory over the Nuggets in Denver: 40 minutes, 20 points on 8-12 shooting (including 3-7 from three-point land), six assists and four rebounds. The key number is the minutes – the only two Lakers getting more time were Bryant and Lamar Odom. HC Phil Jackson likes this guy and he’s going to get a chance to play.

He went undrafted in most fantasy leagues.

Go get him.

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