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Colts vs. Bengals

In this week’s marquee matchup, the 9-0 Colts travel to Cincinnati to face the 7-2 Bengals. Neither team has faced a tough schedule – Colts’ opponents have a combined winning percentage of .321 which is a bit easier than the .407 winning percentage of the Bengals’ opponents. Cincinnati’s last test came in week 7 when they lost to the Steelers, 27-13. Cincinnati was not able to stop Pittsburgh’s running game, and they should have the same problem on Sunday. The Bengals are giving up 124 yards a game on the ground, while the Colts are 6th in the league with an average of 134 yards per contest.

I’m not as confident as my week 9 pick of the Colts to cover, but I believe that Indianapolis will win the game. They will need to play a very good game to win, but they are better than the Bengals in almost every facet of the game. The spread has Indianapolis favored by 5, which does seem a bit steep, but I think the favorite should cover. I’d rather take the money line though, as this game could come down to a last second field goal.

Waiver Wire Watch: Week 11

I just lost one of my fantasy football leagues by a half point because Donovan McNabb and Mike McMahon couldn’t complete a pass to Brian Westbrook or L.J. Smith during the Eagles’ final two drives. Making matters worse, in the same game, I chose to bench one of my waiver wire recommendations from last week, Sam Gado (who had 108 yards and 3 TDs on Sunday), in favor of my first round pick in the league, Kevin Jones. I also started Smith over McMichael, and would have won with Randy in the game. How’s that for a double-kick to the nuts?

Let’s see who hot on the wire this week:

RUNNING BACKS

J.J. Arrington, ARI – Arrington got twice as many carries as Marcel Shipp against the Lions and also scored, so this may indicate that he’s Denny Green’s choice for the starting job. The Cardinals can’t run, so he’s not all that valuable, but he is a starting RB that will get some opportunities, so if you are desperate at RB, he might be worth a look.

Heath Evans, NE – Dillon left the game after a single play and Evans, a FB, took over at RB and carried the ball 18 times for 84 yards. It’s tough to know when Dillon will be back, but if he and Patrick Pass continue to miss time, Evans could be a good fill in.

Adrian Peterson, CHI – Cedric Benson is out three to six weeks with a knee injury and Thomas Jones is recovering from bruised ribs, so Peterson will have value until TJ can play (which might be as soon as this week).

WIDE RECEIVERS

Matt Jones, JAX – Jones finally had a breakout game, catching five passes for 117 yards and a TD, giving him three TDs in the last four games. If Ernest Wilford misses any more time due to injury, Jones’ value would increase.

Brian Finneran, ATL – Over the past two weeks, Finneran has caught 12 passes for 142 yards. He hasn’t been dependable though, putting up goose eggs in the prevous two games. His numbers fluctuate with Michael Vick’s questionable accuracy.

LeRon McCoy, ARI – It appears that McCoy is the second option in the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson out with injuries. He may have some short-term value, depending on the status of these two guys.

Ike Hilliard / Edell Shepherd, TB – With Michael Clayton missing the game with a knee injury, Hilliard saw eight targets to Shepherd’s four. Shepherd did more with his opportunities, catching three passes for 87 yards and a score. If I had to guess who would do more over the next few weeks, I’d say Hilliard.

A-Rod named MVP

They got it right.

Anyone who thinks David Ortiz deserved the AL MVP award over Alex Rodriguez is either insane, a Red Sox fan, or an insane Red Sox fan. Ortiz had a phenomenal season at the plate, no question, but he’s a DH. Some of you are rolling your eyes right now, saying that argument doesn’t hold any water, but you’re mistaken.

First, let’s look at the numbers:

Rodriguez – .321, 48 HR, 130 RBI, 124 runs, 21 steals, .421 OBP, .610 slug
Ortiz – .300, 47 HR, 148 RBI, 119 runs, 1 steal, .397 OBP, .604 slug

A-Rod beat Big Papi in every single category except for RBI (and doubles, 40-29). Had Ortiz topped Rodriguez in any of the other categories, perhaps a stronger case could’ve been made for the Boston slugger, but the numbers, while extremely close, favor A-Rod.

Of course, numbers don’t always tell the whole story, and nobody in baseball drove in more clutch runs for his team in 2005 than Ortiz. I’m not going to deny that. It seemed like every other night on SportsCenter, I watched Papi knock a two-run homer out of the yard in the ninth, or lace a run-scoring double into the gap in the eighth to lead the Sox to a key victory. For that reason alone, Ortiz certainly deserved consideration for the award, but it’s impossible to ignore that he essentially was a part-time player for Boston, picking up a bat every few innings and riding the pine for the rest of the game.

Did he rob anybody of a double down the line with a runner on second? Was he out there starting pivotal double plays for his pitcher, or barehanding a slow roller and gunning to first for the out? Ortiz was great for his team when he had a bat in his hand, but that’s it, which means he could only affect the outcome of a game three or four times a night, generally speaking. A-Rod, meanwhile, hit for a higher average, hit more homers, scored more runs, got on base at a higher percentage and also carried a better slugging percentage than Ortiz, plus he played 1,391 Gold Glove-caliber innings in the field. Ortiz, meanwhile, logged 78 innings at first…and committed two errors.

Ortiz is a stud, no doubt, and he may have gotten my vote for Most Valuable Hitter. But A-Rod clearly was the league’s MVP, and now he’s got the hardware to prove it.

Still hating the BCS

All the BCS apologists are happy today now that Texas and USC are left as the only two unbeaten teams in the country. If they stay unbeaten, the system will have worked for this season, just as it did in 2002 when Ohio State and Miami squared off in an epic battle for the National Championship.

Supporters of the BCS can argue that this system is much better than the pre-BCS days, when matchups like Miami/Ohio State and Texas/USC would not have taken place. But that really misses the point. Fans, players and coaches deserve a better system. Teams like Auburn last season deserved a shot at the title after going undefeated in the SEC. If Alabama had won out, they certainly would have deserved a shot. This season, teams like Miami and Ohio State have one and two losses, respectively, but does anyone doubt they would have a chance at the title if a real playoff system were in place?

I was rooting for Alabama, because another controversy might have tipped the balance in favor of a playoff system. It looks like we’ll get an incredible game between Texas and USC, but we deserve much more.

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