NOTE: This feature was originally published on Bullz-Eye.com.
I received no mail whatsoever on my Baseball Preview in March, which I took as a sign that you, dear readers, more or less agreed with my assessments. If that is the case, then now is the point where we acknowledge that we are all idiots. Nothing has gone the way I thought it would, except for the fact that Kansas City and Pittsburgh still stink, and the West divisions are going to be settled on the last day of the season using dueling pistols at dawn.
Let’s survey the carnage, shall we?
National League East
My Predictions
1) New York Mets
2) Philadelphia Phillies
3) Atlanta Braves
4) Washington Nationals
5) Florida Marlins
Current Standings
1) New York Mets
2) Philadelphia Phillies
3) Florida Marlins
4) Washington Nationals
5) Atlanta Braves
The kids can play! I, like many baseball aficionados, looked at Florida’s meager payroll ($14 million, which is $11 million less than Alex Rodriguez will make this year) and the youth of their major league-ready club, and wrote, “Growing pains” in my notebook. Now, there was no question that the prospects they received in their fire sale were good players. The only question was how soon it would be before they were competitive. To quote the Smiths, how soon is now? Second baseman Dan Uggla has almost as many home runs as Miguel Cabrera, and Josh Johnson’s ERA is more than a point and a half lower than their 24-year-old staff ace – that’s right, one of the most veteran members of this team is 24 – Dontrelle Willis. The second biggest surprise here is Atlanta’s precipitous fall from grace. I knew they wouldn’t be as good, but still didn’t expect them to be bad.
The Mets are the best team in the National League. Pity that such a distinction means absolutely nothing. If they make it to the World Series, there are seven teams in the AL that could sweep them.
National League Central
My predictions
1) St. Louis Cardinals
2) Houston Astros
3) Milwaukee Brewers
4) Chicago Cubs
5) Cincinnati Reds
6) Pittsburgh Pirates
Current standings
1) St. Louis Cardinals
2) Cincinnati Reds
3) Houston Astros
4) Milwaukee Brewers
5) Chicago Cubs
6) Pittsburgh Pirates
Free the Cubs! Holy smokes, are they a mess, and it doesn’t look as though anyone at the Tribune Co. plans on taking responsibility, rectifying the situation, or doing much of anything other than taking Cubs fans’ money. As a Cubs fan, I’m actually thrilled to see them floundering like this, since it will finally force brass to start cracking skulls. The team should be stripped for parts, a la the Marlins. But of course, the Trib will never do that, because it makes too much sense. Prepare for a riot on the North Side if the Mets win the World Series this year. That would make three cursed teams in a row winning the big prize, while the Cubs continue to wallow in misery. Disgraceful.
Cincinnati got off to a blazing start, but they seem to be coming down to earth the same way the Nationals did last year. Still, they’ll finish better than the fifth place slot I set aside for them. St. Louis is clearly weaker than last year’s team, and Houston gets Clemens back just in time. With four teams within four and a half games of first place, the Central is still up for grabs.
National League West
My predictions
1) San Francisco Giants
2) San Diego Padres
3) Arizona Diamondbacks
4) Los Angeles Dodgers
5) Colorado Rockies
Current standings
1) Los Angeles Dodgers (tie)
2) San Diego Padres (tie)
3) Colorado Rockies (tie)
4) San Francisco Giants
5) Arizona Diamondbacks
Four and a half games separating four teams? The NL West will see your four games and spot you three. That’s what is happening on the left coast. The Dodgers are showing some pop, thanks to Comeback Player of the Year candidate Nomar Garciaparra, while everyone else in the West is playing way below their abilities. Barry Bonds is a shell of his former self (Reds backup catcher David Ross has more home runs than Bonds), Moises Alou has been more injured than usual, and Matt Cain is not living up to the hype. Down in San Diego, Jake Peavy is still striking out a ton of players, but what’s with that 4.50 ERA, never mind Brian Giles’ six – SIX – home runs?
And then there’s the perennial cellar dwellers the Colorado Rockies, who are, surprisingly, playing as well on the road as they are in the rarified air of Coors Field. Hawpe, Holliday and Atkins have been putting on a show, but can they keep it up? Will Todd Helton become trade bait at the deadline? Lastly, we’d like to offer major props to the Arizona brass for having the guts to cut the overpaid Russ Ortiz. Smart move. Certainly smarter than paying him $45 million.
American League East
My predictions
1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Toronto Blue Jays
4) Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5) Baltimore Orioles
Current standings
1) Boston Red Sox
2) New York Yankees
3) Toronto Blue Jays
4) Baltimore Orioles
5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Lo, I am a prophet:
“…But the best story in the Orioles camp this year will be the potential second coming of Corey Patterson (though that assumes that he ever came a first time). There’s no question that he has the tools. Will playing for a bum team with no chance of competing allow him to finally relax? He could be a bargain basement fantasy superstar.”
Ten dingers, 31 stolen bases, 283 batting average. His OBP is up 75 points from last year. It’s not a joke when writers talk about assembling All Star teams of nothing but ex-Cubs. Everyone does better when they leave Chicago (Sosa excepted). Elsewhere in the division, the Yankees are hanging tough considering they’ve lost two of their best hitters (Sheff, Matsui) and A-Rod has been a “bum” (for the record, he’s hitting a perfectly respectable .291-19-64-8, not that any of that matters to the Bronx faithful). Tampa Bay is not far behind the O’s, and that bat-flipping prospect should be getting the call any day now. Toronto, meanwhile, remains the Lisa Simpson of the division; talented, humble, and completely overlooked.
American League Central
My predictions
1) Chicago White Sox
2) Cleveland Indians
3) Detroit Tigers
4) Minnesota Twins
5) Kansas City Royals
Current standings
1) Detroit Tigers
2) Chicago White Sox
3) Minnesota Twins
4) Cleveland Indians
5) Kansas City Royals
I’ll take my mulligan here. What on earth is wrong with the Cleveland Indians? They’ve scored the second most runs in the AL, yet are 19 games back, which, I suppose, points towards their pitching. Maybe I should blame myself. After all, I picked them to win the World Series, so that was the death of them right there. But the real story here is the Tigers, who are pretty much the same team as last year, plus one camera-crushing veteran pitcher and crusty old Jim Leyland at the helm, yet they’re playing like men possessed. By all accounts, this team was a year away from competing, but apparently they didn’t feel like waiting that long. And how about those Twins? Joe Mauer is flirting with .400, and the two Santanas (Johan and “Baby Johan,” Francisco Liriano) are throwing darts.
Lastly, we salute Kansas City’s Mark Redman, he with the 5-4 record, 5.59 ERA, and 30/30 K/BB ratio, on being selected to this year’s All Star Game. Dumbest rule in baseball bar none, the one that demands that every team be represented. This isn’t little league, people. And if you’re going to include someone from the Royals, why not pick David DeJesus? He has more home runs than Barry Bonds, too.
American League West
My predictions
1) Oakland A’s
2) Texas Rangers
3) Anaheim Angels
4) Seattle Mariners
Current standings
1) Oakland A’s
2) Texas Rangers
3) Seattle Mariners
4) Anaheim Angels
Anaheim can still win this, and they took a difficult but wise step in accomplishing that goal by replacing Weaver the Elder with Weaver the Apprentice (and then trading Weaver the Elder to the Cardinals). Seattle should enjoy the view from third place while they can, and predicting Oakland and Texas’s second half is a crap shoot, since both teams are streakier than Kate Moss’ mirror. In the end, good pitching (Oakland) will beat good hitting (Texas), and Seattle will watch from the distance, wondering what possessed them to give Adrian Beltre so much money to do so little. And is it just me, or did everyone stop talking about Vladimir Guerrero? How did the most feared hitter in baseball next to Albert Pujols suddenly get swept under the rug? Weird.
First Half Hardware
NL MVP: Jose Reyes. He could still stand to take an extra walk or two, but who scares about walks when you’re on pace to score 150 runs and steal 80 bases?
NL Cy Young: Brandon Webb. His strikeouts are down from last year, but his walks are down even lower. Two of his three losses came when he gave up one and three earned runs, meaning he could easily be 11-1 instead of 9-3.
AL MVP: Travis Hafner. The Tribe may be struggling, but Pronk is doing his job (see ball, hit ball) and is on pace to hit 50 dingers and drive in 140 runs.
AL Cy Young: Francisco Liriano. Nine starts, nine wins, 1.99 ERA. The kid is crazy good. So why, again, is he not playing in the All Star Game?
What’s to come?
Time for a little hindsight-assisted revising of my predictions
NL division winners
New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Here’s how this is going to go down: the Cubs will trade Greg Maddux to their neighbors to the north so Mad Dog can play for a contender, one whose pitching coach happens to be Maddux’s brother. The Cardinals will continue to waste time with reclamation projects like Ponson and Jeff Weaver when they should be playing the kids (Reyes, Wainwright), and it will cost them. The Mets, meanwhile, have the East wrapped up, and San Diego (another potential spot for Maddux), on a resurgent Jake Peavy, will take the West.
NL Wild Card: There are currently six teams within two games of each other in the battle for the NL Wild Card. It’s anyone’s guess who will win it. So while we’re guessing, I’m going to be perverse and pick the Colorado Rockies. Their fans have suffered long enough.
AL division winners
Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Oakland A’s
It is clear at this point that the wild card winner is coming from the Central, and sadly, it will not be the Cleveland Indians that I so foolishly picked to win the World Series. This means that New York is shut out of the playoffs for the first time since 1993 (technically 1994, but there were no playoffs that year). They’re simply too beaten up to make much of a charge. Oakland will win the West, but look for them to get blown out in the first round of the playoffs.
AL Wild Card: Detroit Tigers. They’re giving the White Sox fits right now, but the Sox will prevail.
NL Pennant: New York Mets. Best team in the National League, which is kind of like being the world’s tallest midget.
AL Pennant: Chicago White Sox. I’d love to put Detroit here, but the Sox are simply too loaded, plus they have playoff experience.
World Series: Chicago White Sox. Party on the South Side once again.
