Below are the tiers for the shooting guard position. When determining statistical outlooks, I used the (twelve team) nine-category rotisserie system that Yahoo uses, which includes both field goal and free throw percentage, three-point shots made, total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers. Turnovers didn’t play a big role in my calculations because well-managed teams usually lose this category every week just because their total number of games played is greater than their opponent’s. Besides, if turnovers were of equal weight, they wouldn’t impact the rankings very much.
Players are listed in order within the tier, but there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the players within each tier. Players listed in parenthesis have dual position eligibility in the Yahoo game. For instance, Dwyane Wade is considered a shooting guard in many fantasy games, but in the Yahoo game (and many others), he’s also eligible to play point guard. Look for the SF, PF and C tiers as the week goes on. You can find the PG tiers here.
TIER ONE: Kobe Bryant, (Dwyane Wade)
Kobe Bryant edges out Dwyane Wade due to his play down the stretch last season and the fact that he didn’t spend the summer playing for Team USA. Wade has to be a little worn down coming into the season and he has an injured shooting hand that is giving him problems. Of course, Bryant had knee surgery this offseason, so watch that situation closely in the preseason. If both guys look shaky, it might be a good year to spend your first-round pick on a position other than SG.
TIER TWO: (Paul Pierce), Ray Allen, (Joe Johnson), (Vince Carter)
Paul Pierce should benefit from an improved supporting cast. Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak will keep defenses honest and a leaner Al Jefferson should provide some support in the post. He may be asked to score a bit less, but he should be more efficient as a result. He’s already solid in every category and his dual eligibility gives him the edge over the next guy on the list…Ray Allen provides terrific FT%, threes and scoring, but the rest of his numbers are pretty average, which means he doesn’t hurt you in those categories, but he doesn’t help either…Joe Johnson offers solid to strong numbers in every category and his dual eligibility makes him a valuable asset in the Yahoo game. Since he’ll be playing more off guard with the arrival of Speedy Claxton, expect his assists to tick down a bit and his scoring and threes to tick up…Vince Carter only has one weakness in his fantasy game – his FG%. Everything else is solid. Unfortunately for savvy fantasy owners, his ADP has caught up to his ability, but he’s a solid, versatile pick in the third.
TIER THREE: (Michael Redd), Manu Ginobili, (Andre Iguodala), (Tracy McGrady), Jason Richardson, (Josh Smith), (Kirk Hinrich), (Gerald Wallace)
The Bucks’ supporting cast is improving with the arrivals of Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva, so Michael Redd won’t have to deal with as many double teams as the last few years. Redd has steadily improved every year of his career, so expect nothing less this summer…Manu Ginobili was hampered much of last season with injuries, but he appeared to be healthy during the Spurs’ playoff run and the World Championships, so expect him to return to 2004-05 numbers, making him a solid 5th round pick…Andre Iguodala isn’t very good in assists or threes, but his FG%, steals and rebounds are amongst the best at his position. He offers very nice value in the late 4th or early 5th…Tracy McGrady is a Tier Two guy when healthy. Hell, he might even be a Tier One guy if he were 100%, which he says he is. But do you trust his bad back to hold up to the rigors of an entire NBA season? I certainly don’t, not at the cost of a second round pick. However, if he looks good in the preseason, I might bite on him in the third…Jason Richardson has increased his scoring every year of his career, and has only two weaknesses in his game – FT% and assists. Don Nelson’s arrival will probably generate more offense, so J-Rich should get his, even if Baron Davis is healthy. He’s going to miss all or most of the preseason rehabbing his knee, so keep an eye on his recovery…Josh Smith went on a tear after the All-Star break, averaging 15.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.1 blocks over the last 32 games. During that span, only his FG% (42.6%) was a glaring weakness. He’s poised for great things…Kirk Hinrich is coming off a great stint for Team USA in the World Championships. He provides good 3PT and assist numbers, but his career FG% (40.2%) needs to improve. I expect that his solid rebounding numbers from last season (3.6) could drop under 3.0 with the arrival of Ben Wallace… Gerald Wallace is a consistently underrated fantasy player. His FT% and his threes leave something to be desired, but the rest of his stats are quite strong and he’s amongst the leaders at his position in steals, blocks and FG%. The arrival of Adam Morrison is a bit worrisome, however. Preseason should be a good indicator of how the team wants to use the two players.
TIER FOUR: (Morris Peterson), (Bobby Simmons), Bonzi Wells, (Hedo Turkoglu), (Delonte West), (Wally Szczerbiak)
Mo Peterson finished last season on a tear, and with the loss of Mike James, the team will need his scoring to compliment Chris Bosh. Also, Toronto’s new up-tempo system should make Peterson’s numbers last year a worst-case scenario…Bobby Simmons played great for the Bucks over the last half of the season. If he rebounded a little better and blocked a few more shots, his numbers would be very solid. As is, his threes and FT% are outstanding and he doesn’t hurt you in any other categories…It’s not entirely clear how Bonzi Wells is going to fit in with Tracy McGrady and Shane Battier on the perimeter, but one thing’s for sure – a motivated Bonzi is a productive Bonzi. His threes are poor, but he brings great rebounding and steals stats, and the Rockets didn’t sign him to ride the pine…Hedo Turkoglu played great down the stretch for the Magic, and unless Grant Hill can come back healthy, there is no one on the roster that will cut into his time. His numbers are pretty good all-around, though his assists and steals are lacking…At press time, Delonte West is going in the 10th round, which is grand larceny, assuming his back is okay to start the season. All of his numbers are at or above the averages for his position (so he doesn’t hurt you in any category) and he’s a great source of blocks, rebounds, FG% and FT%. He has to fend off Sebastian Telfair and that sore back to start at PG, but he could also see some time at SG alongside Telfair…Wally Szczerbiak brings terrific FG%, FT% and threes to the table, but has yet to confirm that his knee is 100%.
TIER FIVE: (Mike Miller), Rip Hamilton, Larry Hughes, (Ricky Davis), (Josh Childress), (Corey Maggette)
Mike Miller will be asked to do a lot this season, especially with Pau Gasol being out for the first half of the year. He’s one of the league’s best all-around shooters, but his assist and steal numbers drag his value down…Rip Hamilton provides good shooting accuracy and points, but his lack of steals and threes are worrisome. He should see an uptick in his rebounds with Ben Wallace’s departure…Larry Hughes would be a very solid shooting guard if he could stay healthy. He’s only played an average of 56 games the last four seasons. Expect his numbers to be slightly better than last year to increased comfort in Cleveland, but he’s a serious injury risk…It might be surprising to see Ricky Davis up here in Tier Four, but his stats are pretty solid all-around. The arrivals of Mike James and Randy Foye could cut into his scoring opportunities, but the team will still need the rest of his game. Kevin McHale doesn’t like his defense, so keep an eye on this situation during preseason…Josh Childress offers terrific FG% and good steals, but his numbers are lacking in other areas. He’s got to find time behind Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, but given his production, I think the Hawks will find a way to give him 28+ minutes…Corey Maggette came off the bench much of last season after returning from an injury. He offers great FT% and rebounding, but his assists, steals and threes are a bit lacking. For some reason, there were trade rumors swirling around him, but the Clippers would be wise to hold onto him.
TIER SIX: (Stephen Jackson), Cuttino Mobley, (Josh Howard), (Eddie Jones), (Brandon Roy), Raja Bell, (Ben Gordon), (Luol Deng), Jamal Crawford
When Stephen Jackson isn’t getting punched in the mouth or firing shots in a parking lot of a nightclub, he’s a pretty good all-around fantasy player. Sure, his FG% and assists are lacking, but everything else is solid. He might see a downtick in points with the addition of Al Harrington, but something tells me that Jackson will still get his shots…Cuttino Mobley has no glaring weaknesses in his game, but assuming Corey Maggette returns to the starting lineup, he’ll probably be the fourth option on offense…Josh Howard is a fine player, but he’s not a particularly good fantasy player. Most of his stats are pretty average for his position, but his threes, blocks and assists are below average…Counting on 34 year-old Eddie Jones to increase his scoring after four consecutive years of diminishing returns is a dicey proposition. But Pau Gasol is out for the first half of the season so Jones should see a few more shots. His steals and threes are still great…Brandon Roy will be penciled in as the starter at shooting guard for the Blazers, and his dual eligibility makes him an option at point guard as well. During the pre-draft process, he was labeled as one of the guys that was NBA-ready, so expect him to start quickly out of the gate. His preseason performance should give a good indication on whether or not he belongs here or in a higher tier…What Raja Bell lacks in rebounds and assists, he makes up for in threes. Bell benefited from playing in the freewheeling Suns system, which will inflate anyone stats. But he’s a good player, so expect more of the same…Ben Gordon isn’t a true point guard – his assist numbers are poor – but he’s great from behind the arc and he’s a decent scorer. He’s sort of a specialist, so grab him if you need three-point or scoring help. His dual eligibility adds a bit more value…The Bulls have had a crowded backcourt in recent years, and now they’ve got a crowded frontcourt as well. It’s not clear how many minutes Luol Deng will get, but the kid’s got great upside so he should get 28-35 minutes somewhere. His threes are awful, but he’s pretty solid everywhere else…Jamal Crawford is currently listed as the backup to Steve Francis, but he should play in a three-guard rotation with Francis and Stephon Marbury. If he gets 30+ minutes, he should provide good FT% and threes, and is pretty solid elsewhere, except for rebounds and FG%. Keep an eye on his minutes in the preseason.
TIER SEVEN: Kevin Martin, J.R. Smith, (Martell Webster), Grant Hill, DeShawn Stevenson, (Desmond Mason), (John Salmons), (Jerry Stackhouse), Anthony Parker
Kevin Martin played pretty well down the stretch for the Kings, providing solid numbers across the board, save for assists and steals. Free agent acquisition John Salmons could cut into his time, but the departure of Bonzi Wells will free up some minutes…J.R. Smith is drawing raves for his shooting in Nuggets camp, and is a sleeper at SG if he can get his act together on defense…Martell Webster played solid ball over the last two months of the season, but Darius Miles is still penciled in at SF. But don’t be surprised if Miles isn’t on the team after the trade deadline…At press time, Grant Hill is the starting shooting guard for the Orlando Magic. If he can play, he’s worth a late-round flyer, but don’t expect him to make it through the season…DeShawn Stevenson made two three-pointers last season. Two. His FG% is great, but the rest of his numbers are pretty lacking…Desmond Mason is coming off his most miserable season as a pro. Statistically, he’s a better player than he showed last year and supposedly he’s been working on that jumpshot…John Salmons was productive in games that Allen Iverson missed and now has the opportunity to fight for the starting shooting guard slot in Sacramento, making him a deep sleeper…Jerry Stackhouse can score and shoot free throws well, but that’s about it…Anthony Parker is back in the league after a successful stint in the Euroleague, and is slated to start at shooting guard for Raptors. If Toronto is able to successfully install the Suns’ wide-open offense, Parker will have some value.
TIER EIGHT: (Marquis Daniels), (Quentin Richardson), (James Posey), Greg Buckner, Keyon Dooling, (Michael Finley), Gordon Giricek, Ronnie Brewer, J.J. Redick
Marquis Daniels was stuck behind all the guards in Dallas and was never really able to get out of Avery Johnson’s doghouse. He will have more opportunity in Indiana backing up Stephen Jackson at off guard…James Posey will continue to find minutes backing up Antoine Walker and Dwyane Wade in Miami…Keyon Dooling would fight for Orlando’s starting shooting guard spot if something happens to Grant Hill…Michael Finley will continue to come off the bench for the Spurs and offer good threes and FT%, but little else…Gordon Giricek is an okay scorer, but that’s about all he does. The team signed Derek Fisher and drafted Ronnie Brewer for a reason…We all know that J.J. Redick can shoot, so he should be a good source of FG%, FT%, threes and points, but he isn’t going to make a positive impact in any of the other categories. He’s over his bad back, but has a foot injury that is limiting his ability to practice.
