Below are the small forward tiers. When determining statistical outlooks, I used the (twelve team) nine-category rotisserie system that Yahoo uses, which includes both field goal and free throw percentage, three-point shots made, total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers. Turnovers didn’t play a big role in my calculations because well-managed teams usually lose this category every week just because their total number of games played is greater than their opponent’s. Besides, if turnovers were of equal weight, they wouldn’t impact the rankings very much.
Players are listed in order within the tier, but there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the players within each tier. Players listed in parenthesis have dual position eligibility in the Yahoo game. For instance, Kevin Garnett is considered a power forward in many fantasy games, but in the Yahoo game (and many others), he’s also eligible to play small forward. Look for the PF and C tiers as the week goes on. You can find the PG tiers here and the SG tiers here.
TIER ONE: (Kevin Garnett), LeBron James, (Shawn Marion)
On average, LeBron James is going ahead of Kevin Garnett, but I still believe Garnett is the top fantasy player. LeBron holds the advantage in threes, points and assists, but KG is better in the other five meaningful categories. (Remember, they are compared to other players at their natural position.) LeBron is still improving, while KG has reached a plateau, so the choice is really a matter of preference…Shawn Marion can enter the discussion as well – he’s better than LeBron in five categories as well, but with LeBron’s continuing upside and the potential return of Amare Stoudemire, I’d take James over Marion.
TIER TWO: (Paul Pierce), (Lamar Odom), Rashard Lewis, (Vince Carter), (Andrei Kirilenko)
Paul Pierce should benefit from an improved supporting cast. Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak will keep defenses honest and a leaner Al Jefferson should provide some support in the post. He may be asked to score a bit less, but he should be more efficient as a result. He’s already solid in every category and his dual eligibility gives him the edge over the next guy on the list…Lamar Odom still hurts you with his FT%, but he improved his FG%, three-point shooting and assists last season, becoming one of the league’s best all-around players. He lost his infant son over the summer, so there’s no telling where his mind is at right now. I’m not a Laker fan, but I’m rooting for Odom this year…Rashard Lewis doesn’t rebound well for a guy his size, but otherwise, he’s solid across the board. Since he entered the league out of high school, he’s been in the league a long time, but is still only 27 years old…Vince Carter only has one weakness in his fantasy game – his FG%. Everything else is solid. Unfortunately for savvy fantasy owners, his ADP has caught up to his ability, but he’s a solid, versatile pick in the third…Yes, Andrei Kirilenko stuffs the stat sheet, but the guy is a serious injury risk – he missed 54 games in the last two seasons. I have a very tough time taking a guy with that kind of history in the second round, even if he does block 3.2 shots per game.
TIER THREE: (Michael Redd), (Andre Iguodala), (Tracy McGrady), (Antawn Jamison), (Boris Diaw), Ron Artest, (Josh Smith), (Gerald Wallace), Richard Jefferson
The Bucks’ supporting cast is improving with the arrivals of Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva, so Michael Redd won’t have to deal with as many double teams as the last few years. Redd has steadily improved every year of his career, so I expect nothing less this summer…Andre Iguodala isn’t very good in assists or threes, but his FG%, steals and rebounds are amongst the best at his position. He offers very nice value in the late 4th or early 5th…Tracy McGrady is a Tier Two guy when healthy. Hell, he might even be a Tier One guy if he was 100%, which he says he is. But do you trust his bad back to hold up for an entire season? I certainly don’t, not at the cost of a first or early second round pick. However, if he looks good in the preseason, I might bite on him in the late second…Antawn Jamison lost some accuracy from the field last season, but his scoring, rebounding and threes all increased. His blocks are pathetic, but the rest of his numbers are quite solid…After the All-Star break, Boris Diaw averaged 15.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.9 assists while shooting 57% from the field. The Yahoo game lists him as a PF or a C, but I’m sure he’s eligible at SF in other games as well. The big question – how will the returns of Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas affect his playing time? He may not play 35 minutes a game again this season, but the Suns will find a way to get him 30…Ron Artest is a risky pick for obvious reasons, but he’s an all-around good player, and I expect his numbers to improve as he enters his first full season with the Kings. His FG% and FT% aren’t good, but the rest of his numbers are solid…Josh Smith went on a tear after the All-Star break, averaging 15.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.1 blocks over the last 32 games. During that span, only his FG% (42.6%) was a glaring weakness. He’s poised for great things…Gerald Wallace is a consistently underrated fantasy player. His FT% and his threes leave something to be desired, but the rest of his stats are quite strong and he’s amongst the leaders at his position in steals, blocks and FG%. The arrival of Adam Morrison is a bit worrisome, however. Preseason should be a good indicator of how the team wants to use the two players…Richard Jefferson is a player that isn’t outstanding in any one category, but he doesn’t hurt you either. He provides good FG%, FT%, points, rebounds and assists.
TIER FOUR: (Morris Peterson), Peja Stojakovic, Carmelo Anthony, Caron Butler, (Bobby Simmons), (Charlie Villanueva) (Hedo Turkoglu), (Wally Szczerbiak)
Mo Peterson finished last season on a tear, and with the loss of Mike James, the team will need his scoring to compliment Chris Bosh. Also, Toronto’s new up-tempo system should make Peterson’s numbers last year a worst-case scenario…Peja Stojakovic is definitely on the downside of his career. His scoring, assists and rebounds have declined each of the last three years. He’s still a great shooter and is phenomenal from the charity stripe, but his blocks, assists and steals aren’t very good…Carmelo Anthony is a fine player, but he’s overrated in fantasy circles and will almost certainly be gone before any savvy owner would consider drafting him. His points are nice, but he doesn’t provide enough rebounds, blocks or threes for his position…Caron Butler was terrific last season, setting career highs in points, rebounds, FG% and FT% – can he keep it up? His situation in Washington hasn’t changed much this offseason, so I don’t see any reason why not…Bobby Simmons played great for the Bucks over the last half of the season. If he rebounded a little better and blocked a few more shots, his numbers would be very solid. As is, his threes and FT% are outstanding and he doesn’t hurt you in any other categories…How will Charlie Villanueva fit in with the Bucks? He did play better over the second half of the season, but he did all that scoring on a bad team. He’ll be the third or fourth option in Milwaukee and won’t be shooting the three as much…Hedo Turkoglu played great down the stretch for the Magic, and unless Grant Hill can come back healthy, there is no one on the roster that will cut into his time. His numbers are pretty good all-around, though his assists and steals are lacking…Wally Szczerbiak brings terrific FG%, FT% and threes to the table, but has yet to confirm that his knee is 100%.
TIER FIVE: (Mike Miller), (Ricky Davis), (Josh Childress), (Corey Maggette), (Al Harrington), Andres Nocioni, Shane Battier, (Danny Granger), (Marvin Williams)
Mike Miller will be asked to do a lot this season, especially with Pau Gasol being out for the first half of the year. He’s one of the league’s best all-around shooters, but his assist and steal numbers drag his value down… It might be surprising to see Ricky Davis up here in Tier Four, but his stats are pretty solid all-around. The arrivals of Mike James and Randy Foye could cut into his scoring opportunities, but the team will still need the rest of his game. Kevin McHale doesn’t like his defense, so keep an eye on this situation during preseason…Josh Childress offers terrific FG% and good steals, but his numbers are lacking in other areas. He’s got to find time behind Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, but given his production, I think the Hawks will give him 28+ minutes…Corey Maggette came off the bench much of last season after returning from an injury. He offers great FT% and rebounding, but his assists, steals and threes are a bit lacking. For some reason, there were trade rumors swirling around him, but the Clippers would be wise to hold onto him…Al Harrington returns to Indiana to play power forward (Jermaine O’Neal is expected to play center). Harrington brings good points and rebounds, but the rest of his stats are just average, except for FT% and blocks, which are pretty poor for his position…Andres Nocioni lacks assists and steals, but he’s pretty solid in the other categories, including some very good FT% and three-point shooting. The Bulls have added a lot of pieces this season, so hey may not match the 29 minutes a game he played after the All-Star break…Shane Battier will be a nice complimentary player to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. He’ll have to fight McGrady and Bonzi Wells for minutes, but he should get around the same playing time (35 per game) that he received in Memphis. He’s one of those guys that doesn’t do anything really well, but he doesn’t really hurt your fantasy team either…Danny Granger is expected to start at small forward for the Pacers. In the 17 games he started last season, Granger averaged 10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks. His rebounds might fall a bit, but his points should increase…Marvin Williams is slated to start at power forward this season, and should benefit from another year of experience and the extra minutes. Don’t even bother looking at his season stats from last year. In six games as the starter, he averaged 11 points and seven rebounds – those numbers should be a baseline for this season.
TIER SIX: (Shareef Abdur-Rahim), (Stephen Jackson), Tayshaun Prince, Kyle Korver, (Josh Howard), (Luol Deng), Mike Dunleavy, (Adam Morrison), (Eddie Jones)
Shareef Abdur-Rahim only averaged 23 minutes after the All-Star break, basically splitting time at the PF position with Kenny Thomas, so I don’t expect his numbers to jump appreciably this season…When Stephen Jackson isn’t getting punched in the mouth or firing shots in a parking lot of a nightclub, he’s a pretty good all-around fantasy player. Sure, his FG% and assists are lacking, but everything else is solid. He might see a downtick in points with the addition of Al Harrington, but something tells me that Jackson will still get his shots…Tayshaun Prince is one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, but that doesn’t translate well to fantasy hoops. He’s pretty solid all around, and his worst category – rebounds – should improve with the departure of Ben Wallace, bringing his actual value closer to his ADP…Kyle Korver brings great FT% and threes, but he doesn’t do much else…Josh Howard is a fine player, but he’s not a particularly good fantasy player. Most of his stats are pretty average for his position, but his threes, blocks and assists are below average…The Bulls have had a crowded backcourt in recent years, and now they’ve got a crowded frontcourt as well. It’s not clear how many minutes Luol Deng will get, but the kid’s got great upside so he should get 28-35 minutes somewhere. His threes are awful, but he’s pretty solid everywhere else…Don Nelson plans to use Mike Dunleavy at power forward in order to take advantage of defensive matchups on the offensive end. Overall, his numbers should improve some with Nelson’s arrival…Adam Morrison is expected to start at small forward for the Bobcats. 12-15 points and 3-5 rebounds are within reach, but preseason will be the best gauge of how well his game will translate to the pro level…Counting on 34 year-old Eddie Jones to increase his scoring after four consecutive years of diminishing returns is a dicey proposition. But Pau Gasol is out for the first half of the season so Jones should see a few more shots. His steals and threes are still great.
TIER SEVEN: (Martell Webster), (Desmond Mason), (John Salmons), (Rodney Carney), (Donyell Marshall), (Antoine Walker), (Jerry Stackhouse)
Martell Webster played solid ball over the last two months of the season, but Darius Miles is still penciled in at SF. But don’t be surprised if Miles isn’t on the team after the trade deadline, in order to develop Webster…Desmond Mason is coming off his most miserable season as a pro. Statistically, he’s a better player than he showed last year and supposedly he’s been working on that jumpshot…John Salmons was productive in games that Allen Iverson missed and now has the opportunity to fight for the starting shooting guard slot in Sacramento, making him a deep sleeper…Rodney Carney will serve as a backup to Andre Iguodala and Chris Webber. He’s a phenomenal athlete, so keep an eye on his preseason performance to see how many minutes the Sixers are giving him…Donyell Marshall brings good three-point shooting, rebounds and FT%, but the rest of his game is below average…Antoine Walker brings the threes, but his FG% and FT% will really drag your team down…Jerry Stackhouse can score and shoot free throws well, but that’s about it.
TIER EIGHT: (Marquis Daniels), (Quentin Richardson), (James Posey), (Michael Finley), (Jared Jeffries), Bruce Bowen, (Matt Harpring), (Tim Thomas), Darius Miles
Marquis Daniels was stuck behind all the guards in Dallas and was never really able to get out of Avery Johnson’s doghouse. He will have more opportunity in Indiana backing up Stephen Jackson at off guard…Quentin Richardson has fallen far since his days with the Clippers and the Suns and is now fighting for minutes on a bad Knicks team. Unless he plays great in the preseason, avoid him if at all possible…James Posey will continue to find minutes backing up Antoine Walker and Dwyane Wade in MiamiMichael Finley will continue to come off the bench for the Spurs and offer good threes and FT%, but little else…Jared Jeffries and Bruce Bowen are defensive specialists that don’t bring a lot to the table in fantasy leagues…If it looks like Darius Miles is going to make it through preseason as the starting SF for Portland, he’d be worth a late round flyer.
