It was only just a few months ago that the NBA appeared to hit a new low. The planned opening night for the 2011-12 season had come and gone, but instead of competing on a court the league’s star players were going in and out of the negotiation room, desperately trying to make a deal with the owners without sacrificing any of their revenue or salary cap demands. These negotiations appeared to prove fruitless. The strike dragged on and on. As the two sides continued to remain as far apart as ever, the vitriol began to flow in the media and across the arbitration table. The owners appeared determined to sacrifice the season to make a point. The players, meanwhile, wouldn’t budge.
All the while, the NBA enjoyed some pretty dismal PR among its fan base. On message boards and sports news sites, articles about the ongoing lockout were repeatedly met with indifference and outright scorn. Good riddance!, said one such comment. Couldn’t care less, read another.
Fast forward a few months, and the shortened NBA season is nearing its halfway point. The quality of play has been mediocre, many of the top players are sidelined and wearing knee braces, and the negotiation settlement didn’t do anything to curb player or owner greed. Despite all this, an interesting development occurred in the interim: the NBA became more popular than ever. TV viewership has risen 23 percent on ESPN and 50 percent on TNT. Attendance through the first 325 games has averaged 17,095 across the league. That equates to 89 percent capacity and reflects a bump from 17,057 at this same time last year.
How can we read these numbers? Has the NBA actually regained – and even surpassed – its previous popularity after a bitter and protracted strike?
The short answer, based on the above stats, generally appears to be yes. Numbers don’t lie, and there’s no denying that a substantial bump in television viewership and a small increase in attendance reflect that the sport hasn’t lost its popularity, at the very least. But a closer analysis reveals a more mixed picture. While the attendance for the top ten teams remains unchanged from this same time last year, the bottom of the attendance pack has strung out considerably. Among this group the average attendance has dropped and several teams – mainly the Rockets, Nets, and Pistons – are reporting dismal numbers. Furthermore, attendance analysts suggest that the numbers for this season are all positively skewed; due to the warm weather that has dominated much of the nation this winter, a lack of snowy conditions has made it far easier for fans to get to the game.
As for the rise in TV viewership, much of that can be explained by the condensed schedule of play. Normally, the NBA season starts in the fall and needs to compete with professional and college football for a substantial portion of its season. This year, however, the strike helped the NBA avoid the peak period of competition and instead begin play during a down period for other major sports. Another important factor is that many of the most successful teams are located in the biggest metropolitan areas. These teams cover most of the major U.S. markets and are responsible for a huge chunk of television viewership.
So it’s undeniable that the NBA has returned strongly from the strike and that the bad blood and PR of the summer and fall has largely evaporated. But the numbers should certainly not be taken to mean that the league has returned stronger than ever.
