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Russell Wilson hysteria has short shelf life


Image source: Seattle Seahawks Facebook page

Pun intended.

I hate making NFL predictions. Mostly because the NFL is so hard to predict. It’s also hard reading most of them, as many writers sound so sure of themselves when anyone with a brain should know that there are so many factors that will affect the outcome. Every pick involves weighing probabilities and risks.

It’s particularly frustrating in the first couple of weeks in the season, when people who should know a lot about the NFL and football in generally get sucked in by the hype created by the media. Did you hear about Russell Wilson, and how all of a sudden everyone was picking this short, 3rd round pick to have one of the best rookie seasons?

By reading this week’s Bill Simmons article, I learned that he picked the Seahawks as his sleeper Super Bowl pick. I love reading Simmons, but this is another example of how emotion and hype are thrown into the mix whenever he provides “analysis.” He can really break down certain situations, but since he manages to write about practically everything, we often get excited observations that he pulls out of his ass.

Wilson might go on to have a good year for the Seahawks, but the fact remains that Pete Carroll has taken a huge gamble starting this rookie over Matt Flynn as I pointed when earlier in the preseason. The Seahawks do have a shot at the playoffs, but they pretty much gave away game 1 when Wilson completed only 18 of 34 passes for 153 yards and was sacked three times. The icing on the cake was watching Braylon “stone hands” Edwards drop the last pass. They’re just not good enough to give away games.

Now, I’m not going to completely write off Russell Wilson after one game, just like I won’t write off Brandon Weeden after his horrific debut performance. But at least Weeden has a big arm and is closer to 6′ 4″ as opposed to 5′ 11″. The odds are stacked against Wilson, and that’s just a fact. He may overcome them, but the odds for Seattle this season were probably a little better with Matt Flynn running the offense.

Check out all the lines for this weeks games here.

Micheal Vick’s terrible day


Image source: Browns Facebook Page

I was there in Cleveland to witness Micheal Vick’s terrible performance and the usual collapse by the Browns. Vick is getting plenty of heat, for good reason, while some like Jason Whitlock called Andy Reid a “moron” for relying to much on the passing game when LeSean McCoy.

Both Vick and Reid deserve the blame. Reid has always relied too much on the pass, and Micheal Vick continues to play with a reckless style that makes it hard to envision him ever getting to a Super Bowl. Vick always wants to make a play, so he’ll throw across his body into coverage, and he’ll run without sliding. He’s very talented, but he has little discipline. Forget about all those ridiculous predictions early in his career that he would revolutionize the quarterback position. Instead, he’s become the poster child of what not to do as an NFL quarterback.

NFL Quick Hits: 10 Observations from Week 1

The Redskins win was a shock but how they won wasn’t.
Outside of the Eagles struggling in Cleveland, the Redskins’ 40-32 shocker over the Saints was easily the biggest surprise of Week 1. But it’s not as if Washington won using smoke and mirrors. Mike Shanahan built Robert Griffin III’s confidence by calling several zero or “bubble” screens to start the game, then mixed in the play-action pass in order to suck the Saints’ LBs up and give his rookie QB clear passing lanes to throw in. These aren’t the same Redskins of the past several years either. This team finally has offensive playmakers and it’s not just RGIII. Pierre Garcon and Aldrick Robinson form a nice receiving duo and Alfed Morris complements RGIII as a downhill runner with quickness and vision. He only gained 3.4 YPC but for those that watched the game, Morris was a factor. Defensively Washington was equally as impressive. Ryan Kerrigan routinely beat left tackle Jermon Bushrod off the edge and Drew Brees had defenders in his face from the first snap of the game. When Jim Haslett called blitzes, they worked. DeAngelo Hall was successful blitzing from his cornerback position, the interior pressure provided by Barry Cofield also disrupted Brees’ timing and Brian Orakpo was effective as well. Whether it was Washington’s pressure or an off day for Brees, the Saints looked completely out of sync offensively. And they were sloppy, too. The offensive line had multiple false start penalties, Brees routinely threw balls at his receivers’ feet or over their heads, and when he was on target his wideouts dropped a few passes as well. It was just an ugly day for an offense that we’re used to seeing fire on all cylinders. Even when things went right and they were knocking on the door of an easy touchdown, Marques Colston had the ball punched out at the goal line, which resulted in a touchback. But credit Haslett and his defense, as the Redskins snuffed out several of Brees’ go-to plays and routinely blanketed receivers. Washington implemented a solid game plan and executed to perfection. The two teams may go in opposite directions from here on out but for 60 minutes on Sunday, the Redskins were flat out better.

It was vintage Vick – and not in a good way.
When he was in Atlanta, there were games the Falcons would play where they were expected to win and Michael Vick almost single-handedly kept the opponent in the game with his sloppy play. That same Vick showed up in Cleveland on Sunday, as the Browns could have, and should have, beaten the Eagles but fell, 17-16. Make no mistake: Vick was awful. He stared down receivers. He threw into double coverage. He telegraphed his throws. He would desperately chuck balls into traffic when he was under pressure. He looked like a rookie and if the Browns weren’t starting a rookie signal caller of their own in Brandon Weeden (who resembled hot garbage himself), the Browns would have pulled away long before the final whistle. People may talk about Vick engineering that final comeback drive but had L.J. Fort hung onto an interception in the end zone on the play before the Eagles game-winning touchdown, Cleveland would have won. Andy Reid blames Vick’s performance on rust after he received just 12 snaps this preseason and hey, maybe it was rust. But the bottom line is that Philly is expected to challenge for not only a playoff berth but also a Super Bowl and their quarterback nearly willed them to a loss against a team that will challenge for the No. 1 pick next April. Good thing for Vick and Philly it was only Week 1.

Typical Giants.
There’s a general rule I have when it comes to the New York Giants. If their backs are against the wall and they’re not expected to win, ride like them hell because they’re going to fight. But if the general perception is that they should win, expect them to scuffle. The Cowboys came out of the gates on Thursday night looking for a 10-round fight and they wound up delivering a four-round knockout instead. Eli Manning was ordinary, the pass protection was poor, and the vaunted pass rush was non-existent outside of what Jason Pierre-Paul did from his right end spot. Justin Tuck did next to nothing from a pass-rush standpoint, which has to frustrate the Giants considering he didn’t wake up until about Week 15 last year, and both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant abused Corey Webster in coverage. For a team that talked about being overlooked in the offseason, it was surprising that the Giants were as flat as they were…

…that said, let’s not understate what the Cowboys accomplished. Romo was surgical in the passing game and if DeMarco Murray can stay healthy the ‘Boys have an explosive backfield to complement their stable of receivers. Jason Garrett also deserves credit for going for the jugular on that third down play at the end of the game. How in the world the Giants didn’t account for Kevin Ogletree on that play is inexcusable (he had killed them all game), but Garrett deserves praise for keeping the ball out of Eli’s hands. He could have very easily ran the ball, punted, and took the chance that his defense would hold the Giants one more time. But in going for it and picking up the first down, he eliminated even the possibility of a comeback. Finally a Jason Garrett that Dallas fans can get behind.

A tale of two defenses in Green Bay.
One thing teams don’t do enough of when playing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ explosive passing attack is be physical with Green Bay’s receivers. Teams are so worried about giving up a big play (and rightfully so) that they play off the ball on every snap and allow Rodgers to have huge passing lanes to fit the ball into. But in their impressive 30-22 win on Sunday, the Niners aligned their corners and safeties closer to the line of scrimmage. The defensive backs were physical not just at the line of scrimmage but through the entire route, and San Fran consistently generated an interior pass rush. On the other side, the Packers were able to bring pressure from the edge but Alex Smith was able to step up in the pocket and find open receivers the entire game. Green Bay played too soft in coverage, which was a problem last year as well. I understand what the Packers’ game plan was: Pressure Smith and force him to beat you throwing the ball. But the 49ers’ receivers were able to sit down in open areas and Smith was simply taking what the defense gave him. When the Packers were physical with the Niners’ receivers, Jarrett Bush was flagged for pass interference, or Clay Matthews for roughing the passer, or San Francisco’s wideouts just made plays. The other problem, of course, was that the Packers couldn’t slow down Frank Gore and the San Francisco running game. That opened up the middle of the field and the intermediate passing game. The 49ers had a better game plan, executed that game plan better than Green Bay, and made more plays. I don’t know if you can say it was a statement win for the 49ers but they certainly sent a message for those that thought they weren’t as good as their record indicated last year. (On a side note, if the regular officials wanted to make a case that the NFL needs them, they could use this game as Exhibit A. The replacement officials missed multiple false start penalties, often called infractions late, and made several questionable calls. Just a brutal day by that specific crew.)

Johnson already off to a horrendous start.
I went back and watched the Patriots’ 34-13 victory over the Titans to see if Tennessee’s offensive line failed Chris Johnson or if Johnson failed himself. While the run blocking didn’t to generate much push on interior runs, Johnson was slow to the hole, tried to bounce everything outside, and didn’t trust what he saw. When he wasn’t smashing into the backs of his linemen he was trying to make too many cuts and New England would bottle him up. Last year he wasn’t in shape and it showed. This year, at least after four quarters, he looks like he’s trying to hit a home run on every play. While Tennessee’s run blocking needs to improve, Johnson could do himself a favor by hitting the hole harder and trusting his instincts. He was a one-cut-and-go back just two seasons ago. Now he’s trying to break a 70-yard run on every play.

Luck is already ahead of the game.
The Colts’ shaky offensive line didn’t do Andrew Luck any favors on Sunday in Chicago but the rookie still completed 23-of-45 passes for 309 yards with one touchdown. He also threw three interceptions but all things considered, it was an impressive first performance. (Consider how poorly Matt Ryan performed last year Week 1 against the Bears in Chicago.) From a pocket presence standpoint Luck is already playing like a seasoned veteran and keep in mind he doesn’t have a ton of playmakers around him. Reggie Wayne is still a better option than most but his best days are behind him and Austin Collie wasn’t in the lineup. This won’t be the last time I say this in 2012 but as soon as the Colts give Luck a better supporting cast he’s going to be a force to be reckoned with.

The Falcons’ passing game was on point but “The Burner” looks finished.
It cannot be overstated that the Chiefs were banged up defensively on Sunday. They were without their best pass rusher in Tamba Hali (suspended one game) and their top corner in Brandon Flowers (heel). Derrick Johnson was also battling an ankle injury and while Justin Houston is developing nicely, he’s not a player that’s going to take over a game. That said, the Falcons’ passing game looked good. Really good. Matt Ryan routinely found open receivers and exploited one-on-one matchups in the secondary. Even though he’s a second-year player, Julio Jones already uses his body well to shed defenders and gives Ryan a clear target to throw to. Roddy White also made several excellent catches in the Falcons’ 40-24 win, including a snag along the sideline in which he had to drag his right foot in order to compete the play. But I point out the passing game and not the entire offense because Michael Turner did nothing on the ground. He looked like he had cement blocks for feet and constantly banged into the backs of his offensive linemen instead of cutting back and finding extra running room. Not only is he slowing down but he lacks vision as well. Everyone knew he was declining but there’s reason to believe he’s already done and if OC Dirk Koetter were smart, he’d get second-year back Jacquizz Rodgers more involved immediately.

The demise of the Jets may have been a tad exaggerated.
The Jets couldn’t score a touchdown in preseason against thin air so hey, why wouldn’t they hang 58 points on the Bills in Week 1? Fourteen of those 58 points were split between New York’s special teams and defense but still, it was quite a performance by the Jets’ seemingly lackluster offense. Despite adding the likes of Mario Williams, Stephon Gilmore and Mark Anderson in preseason, the Bills’ defense did not look sharp in preseason. So it’s not overly surprisingly that they struggled in Week 1 but this was a New York offense that was positively putrid in exhibition play. The key was that Mark Sanchez never got rattled, although it’s hard not to play with confidence with a 20-point halftime lead. Despite sharing reps with Tim Tebow, Sanchez remained unfazed and often burned Buffalo’s defense with pump fakes and double moves. Even the staunchest Sanchez critics, and I count myself as one of them, had to be impressed by his 2012 debut performance (and I was). There’s a lot of season left for both of these teams but it’s safe to say that the offseason projections for the Jets were grossly exaggerated.

Rams prevent Fisher’s first win in St. Louis era.
It’s rare when a team forces three turnovers and loses a game but that stat tells the tale for the Rams in Detroit on Sunday. They intercepted Matthew Stafford three times but still found a way to lose, 27-23. On one hand the St. Louis faithful has to be thrilled that their team had an opportunity to win a game in the end. That didn’t happen much last year. But there are no moral victories for Jeff Fisher and he can’t be happy that his young team allowed a win to slip through its grasp. St. Louis’ defense made Stafford look ordinary for three quarters but the offense never put the game out of reach. And when the defense had an opportunity to shut the door following Brandon Gibson’s spectacular 23-yard touchdown reception with just under 10 minutes to play in the fourth, it wilted. Fisher and his staff went to a prevent defense, and the results were predictable as the Lions snatched victory out of the jaws of defeat. Thanks to the worst offensive line in football (a line that lost Scott Wells and Rodger Saffold to injuries on Sunday), the Rams won’t have many opportunities to win games this season. That’s why they can’t let victories like yesterdays slip through their fingertips.

How to Study the Odds Before Betting

Odds-based betting can be exciting and even profitable if you know what you’re doing. To master the odds, you must escape some common misconceptions as you outsmart fellow bettors and conniving bookies.

Not Just Playing Favorites: Finding the Winners

In sports betting, you gain an edge only when you know more than the average bettor does. Prior to placing a bet, you should research:

• The location of the game.
• Any player injuries.
• Expected weather conditions.
• The team’s recent performance and morale.

Once you know these less-publicized elements of the game, study how each team has performed under similar conditions in the past.

Not Just Even Money: Evaluating the Money Line

In odds-based betting, the risk and reward are rarely even. Most commonly, you will find one of two types of odds.

Fractional odds: These odds are represented as a pair of numbers, where the first number represents how much you will gain if you win and the second number represents how much you must wager. A 6/1 bet would mean that you wager $1 and would gain $6 if you won, while a 1/3 bet would mean that a wager of $3 would receive a $1 gain.

Money line odds: The odds are displayed as a positive or negative number greater than 100. If the number is positive (e.g., +200), this figure represents how much you stand to profit from a $100 wager. If this number is negative (e.g., -110), the figure represents how much you must wager in order to make a $100 profit.

Even if you were fairly confident that Team A was going to win a match, if Team B had 4/1 odds or a +400 money line, your money may serve you better when wagered on the weaker team.

Not Just Win-Lose: Playing the Side Bets

Most matches have side wagers, which can help you hedge your bets. The two most common side wagers are:

The Point Spread: You predict how much your selected team will win by.

Total Points: You predict how many total points will be scored in the match.

If you’ve done your research, placing these bets is a good way to decrease your total risk and increase your potential reward.

Not Just a Local Bookie: Playing the Right Sports Book

Every bookie and casino runs their betting slightly differently, with the most important difference being the percentage of withheld commission. Since online casinos like www.casinotropez.com are able to cut out some of their operations costs, they typically take a lower commission on bets. A “good commission” (or “percentage”) will be around 10%.

Not Just One Game: Playing for the Long-Term


Image via Flickr

Casino odds are structured to ensure that the casino makes money over the long-term. Your bets should be placed in the same way. To further maximize your gains, take advantage of any commission discounts, VIP club offers, or other extras provided by your sports betting group (for example, also German casino players can use Europa casino bonus code to get a little extra).

By following the steps above, you can trim the commission of the casino and outperform your fellow bettors.

RESOURCES:
http://www.lvrj.com/living/best-in-showgirls-104657334.html
http://www.online-betting.me.uk/articles/understanding-betting-odds.html
http://www.docsports.com/current/understanding-sports-odds.html
http://www.fortunepalace.co.uk/odds.html
http://voices.yahoo.com/a-beginners-guide-sports-betting-parlays-5219487.html?cat=14
http://www.sportsbettingbook.net/sports-betting-101.php

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