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      Steve Smith 1.0 should have a nice 2010

      January 21, 2010 /

      All in all, it was kind of a disappointing year for Steve Smith. In PPR leagues, he finished WR19, and considering he was typically being taken WR5 to WR10 in fantasy drafts, owners didn’t really get what they expected out of him.

      But from a QB standpoint, he just couldn’t get any consistency out of Jake Delhomme, who threw just eight TD (versus 18 interceptions) in 11 games, and generally couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. During that span, Smith averaged 4.2 catches for 55 yards and 0.4 TD per game. This was a far cry from his four-year average of 5.9 catches for 87 yards and 0.6 TD per game from 2005 to 2008.

      Is Smith slowing down? While he is on the wrong side of 30 — he’ll turn 31 this May — his yards per catch in 2009 (15.1) was his third-highest in the last five years, and looked every bit as quick as he did three years ago. His 130 targets weren’t far off his four-year average (141.5), so he’s still a huge part of the Carolina offense even though the Panthers are more of a running team. Those 130 targets were the 14th-most amongst wide receivers, so barring something unforeseen, Smith should have plenty of opportunities to make plays in 2010.

      But what about Matt Moore? Even though he started the final five games of the season, he’s still going to be a question mark for fantasy owners heading into drafts this summer. He averaged 198 yards, 1.6 TD and just 0.2 INT per game over that five-game span. From 2005 to 2008, Delhomme averaged 211 yards, 1.3 TD and 0.8 INT per game, so Moore’s 2009 numbers already compare favorably in terms of Smith getting good play at QB. (If you’re wondering about his competition, the first four games were against defenses ranked in the top 20 in pass yards allowed and he threw seven of his eight TD in those games.)

      To gain a better understanding of Moore’s prospects, I asked our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter to chime in. Here’s what he had to say:

      Continue reading »

      Fantasy Football, NFL

      Report: Receivers not confident in Leinart

      January 21, 2010 /

      According to Cardinals beat write Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic, the receiving corps in ‘Zona is growing less confident in quarterback Matt Leinart.

      If Leinart does become the starter, the offense will no doubt change. There will be a heavier emphasis on the run game, which has developed over the past year and a half. The play-action pass, not one of Warner’s favorite things, could become more of a threat.

      Most importantly, Leinart has to re-gain the trust of his receivers. Everyone can say all the right things about believing in him, but Leinart’s inaccuracy this season eroded confidence among the receiving corps.

      That group loves Warner for many reasons, mainly because the Cardinals are going to throw a lot with him in the lineup. But Warner also did his best to protect his receivers, to keep them from taking big hits. When Leinart is throwing high passes, as has been his tendency, receivers tend to get a little skittish.

      The easiest way for Leinart to earn the trust of his receivers is to lead by example. If he’s the first one in and the last one out, people will take notice. With enough hard work and dedication, his game should improve over time and then his receivers will start to follow him.

      If Leinart wants an example of how not to carry himself as a professional quarterback, he should look no further than his 2006 draft mate JaMarcus Russell. Russell is the posterchild for players that rely too much on their skill set and not enough on hard work and determination. If it weren’t for nutty Al Davis, Russell would be on his second team by now. He’s not willing to make the effort to be good and his performance on the field speaks for itself.

      This shouldn’t be a hard concept for Leinart. He needs to put in the work and he should see positive results because as the article notes, he does have the tools to succeed.

      NFL

      Extending Phillips’ contract right decision

      January 21, 2010 /

      ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that the Cowboys have signed head coach Wade Phillips to a contract extension that will run through the 2011 season. What this essentially means is that owner Jerry Jones picked up Phillips’ 2010 option and added another year onto the head coach’s contract.

      Some fans may disagree, but this was a smart decision by Jones. He didn’t want to go into the offseason trying to convince free agents to come to Dallas when he can’t even make a decision about who his head coach will be. But now that Phillips is under contract through 2011, the Cowboys have stability at their head coach position, at least for the time being.

      Another reason this makes sense is because a potential lockout is threatening to wipe out the 2011 season. Chances are a new CBA deal will be struck by then, but it doesn’t make sense for an owner like Jones to pay a new head coach millions of dollars for doing nothing in 2011. (Especially if that new head coach was a big name like Bill Cohwer.)

      Don’t forget that the Cowboys improved this season under Phillips. They still came up short of Jones’ expectations, but there are 30 teams that fail to reach the Super Bowl every year and half of those teams aren’t close to reaching the title game. The Cowboys at least won a playoff game and are seemingly moving in the right direction.

      Is Phillips the right man to lead the Cowboys to the Super Bowl? Who knows, but at least Jones didn’t make a rash decision based on Dallas’ loss to Minnesota last Sunday. If the Cowboys implode next season, then Jones can re-visit the situation again but at least right now he has a head coach that has already proven he can lead a team to the playoffs.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      NFL

      Manu Ginobili does not expect to re-sign with Spurs

      January 21, 2010 /

      For those that speak Spanish, the original article is on Clarin.com, but the translation below is from the HoopsHype rumor page.

      It was hard to face what he suspected, but now assumes: Manu will not be a Spur anymore on July 1, alter three championships in eight seasons. The news comes out of his mouth with unmistakable words: “I am pretty sure I will be a free agent and that in July and August I will have to make a decision where to go” – he acknowledges – “I do not even expect the team to offer me an extension.”

      This is rather surprising given Ginobili’s history with the franchise. He is still playing very well (PER of 20.32, down a bit from previous seasons but still good enough to rank 5th amongst SGs), though he spent much of last season sidelined with an injury to his left heel.

      Maybe the Spurs haven’t talked extension because they want to see how he comes back from injury and handles a full 82-game season. I find it hard to believe that San Antonio would let a core piece walk in free agency if they were to make it to the Western Conference Finals. The problem with Ginobili is that he’ll turn 33 this summer and already has a reputation for being injury-prone. Still, the Spurs will be over the cap, so it’s not like they can turn around and sign someone younger and better.

      If the Spurs make a run, I think Ginobili will be back. If they crash and burn in the postseason, they may let him walk.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, News, Rumors & Gossip

      To trade David West or not to trade David West?

      January 21, 2010 /

      That is the question. Hornets blogger (writing for ESPN’s Daily Dime) Niall Doherty thinks the team should move David West before it’s too late.

      So what is New Orleans to do? Do they stand pat and suffer mediocrity for now, bumbling along until they can unload some crippling contracts (e.g. Morris Peterson and Peja Stojakovic) this summer or next? Or would they be better served blowing up the core (e.g. David West and Emeka Okafor) and hoping they can rebuild fast enough to keep Chris Paul in town beyond 2012?

      My best guess is that GM/coach Jeff Bower will opt for the former, since he’s known to carefully weigh his options and refrain from doing anything drastic. But in the long run, I think that’s the wrong move. The Hornets aren’t going anywhere with West as Paul’s primary sidekick. Sad but true. D-West’s All-Star days are behind him, and the Hornets would be wise to move him before everyone else realizes it. Swap him out for some young, athletic talent, go after a legit second banana when Peja comes off the books, and Paul will be more likely to call New Orleans home beyond 2012.

      The Hornets are 22-19, but have won eight of their last 11 games. They’re currently sitting in the #10 spot in the crowded Western Conference, but seem like a team destined to sneak into the playoffs and exit early. Doherty suggests that now is the time to move West, since his All-Star days are behind him and argues that he’s just not good enough to be Chris Paul’s primary sidekick.

      However, West is playing very well of late (19-8 with 52% shooting in December and January), and while he’s not likely to make the All-Star Game this season, if the team were a little better, he has the statistical resume to get his third consecutive nod. Moreover, his contract is reasonable ($8.3 million next season, $7.5 million an an option to terminate in 2011), so it’s not like his salary is killing the Hornets financially.

      So should New Orleans trade him? Well, it depends on who they could get. West is 29 and his pop-and-shoot game should age well (think Karl Malone). Without making any big moves, the Hornets won’t have any significant cap space until the 2012 season, which is the summer that Chris Paul can opt out. Depending on what kind of contract West will be looking for next summer (2011), it would make sense to hold onto him. Really, he’s the perfect complement for Paul’s drive-and-dish game, and I have a feeling that if they do move him, they’ll soon be wishing they had a power forward who could knock down an open jumper. Trading West now isn’t going to do much for Paul’s morale, so unless the Hornets can get a good young piece (that looks very capable of being Paul’s sidekick), it’s probably just better to keep the Paul-West core intact.

      The funny thing is that if the Hornets hadn’t made the Tyson Chandler-for-Emeka Okafor swap, they would have had plenty of cap space in 2011 (~$25 million or more) to both re-sign West and add a big-time free agent. If Okafor is still on the roster that summer, the Hornets will have to decide whether to bring back West or use the cap space on another player.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, Rumors & Gossip

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