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      JaMarcus Russell might as well quit football

      March 15, 2010 /

      I mean really, why even go through the motions at this point? It’s obvious that JaMarcus Russell just doesn’t care about playing professional football.

      The San Francisco Chronicle reports that Russell was a no-show for the start of the Raiders’ offseason conditioning program on Monday. This wouldn’t be a big deal if Russell were already established, but this is the same player that has been criticized profusely about his lack of dedication and work ethic. He’s also entering what should be a make-or-break year so one would assume that he would want to show up to all of the Raiders’ offseason workouts in order to save face with the franchise that paid him $61 million to, thus far, do absolutely nothing.

      Of course, if Russell were a member of any other NFL franchise he would be cut by now. But because the Raiders are a dysfunctional mess led by a dysfunctional owner, he still has the opportunity to win their starting quarterback job again this season. (Although he’s already put himself behind the 8-ball once again after Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye showed up to the workouts today.)

      Not to sound like a bitter sports writer that didn’t have the talent to make it in the NFL (or anything above the high school level for that matter), but it pisses me off that Russell was given this much talent and he’s just throwing it away. He’s flat out stealing money from the Raiders and even if Al Davis doesn’t care, players with more heart and less talent that never got a shot in the NFL should. If he doesn’t want to play, he should do the respectful thing and just quit.


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      NFL

      Need help filling out your March Madness bracket?

      March 15, 2010 /

      Looking for picks for 2011? Click here.

      Hundreds of writers will write hundreds of columns/articles/posts about the 2010 NCAA Tournament, so you may be wondering, why should I listen to this clown?

      In 2007, I picked the winner (Florida) along with one other Final Four team (#2 seed Georgetown). In 2008, I picked the winner (Kansas) along with two other Final Four teams (#1-seed UCLA and #1-seed North Carolina). That was enough to line my pocket with a little cash from a pool each year.

      2009 was another story. Even though I am on record saying that if Ty Lawson’s toe were 90-95% healthy that North Carolina would have been my pick, I ultimately didn’t have enough confidence in Lawson’s health — special thanks Dick Vitale for calling it “cartoonishly” swollen, stoking my fears — to pick the Tar Heels last season. I picked only one Final Four team (#1-seed UConn) and my winner (Pitt) lost in the Elite Eight to Villanova.

      Still, there is a method to March Madness. First, I pull in Jeff Sagarin’s regular season rankings. I also consider Ken Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive efficiency stats, along with his Pythagorean win percentage.

      Over the last three years, teams with a 3+ point advantage in Sagarin’s “predictor” rating have won 116 of 141 games (82.3%). In 2009, if a team had at least a 65% expected win rate according to Pomeroy’s Pythagorean calculation, they won 33 of 40 games (82.5%). So I won’t stray too far from these two indicators if they both agree that a certain team is going to win.

      But not every game is so clear cut. Over the last three years, if there were 141 games that had a Sagarin favorite of at least three points, that means that there were 48 games that did not. My research has found that a Sagarin advantage of 0-2 points yields a 17-21 record and an advantage of 2-3 points yields a 5-5 record, so if the Sagarin advantage is fewer than three points, the game is basically a toss up.

      For these games, I’ll look at other factors, like location of the game, offensive and defensive efficiencies, matchups, injuries, current play, and how each team fits the Giant Killers profile. In short, if a game is a toss up, it pays to go with the underdog because most people are going to go with the favorite.

      So enough with the preamble, let’s dive right in.

      Continue reading »

      College Basketball, March Madness

      How To Bet Well

      March 15, 2010 /

      With the official kick-off of the basketball season, March Madness fever has really shaken things up, and bets are on about every aspect of the sports, probably including how many times a player uses the loo. Indulge in some good sportsbetting, there’s nothing that spikes up the adrenaline like that. There’s a kind of fervor that you get when your “horse” beats everyone in a close finish that nothing else can give; and the more money that rides on your horse, the better the excitement. So bet all you can, but be a smart bettor. Bet smart of bet silly, betting will always be exciting; but there’s a real world out there that’s gonna be trickier to negotiate if you are not betting with a smart head on your shoulders.

      Smart betting 101 will tell you something you probably didn’t expect – when not to bet. You see, betting is about fifty percent chance and fifty percent science. You can control about half of the betting outcome if you know enough about what you are betting about. So, the first thing to learn is, if you are not absolutely passionate about a sports, don’t bet on it. You simply wouldn’t know enough to qualify as a good bettor.

      Sportsbetting involves some risk, so make sure you know how much risk you can bear. Give yourself a solid figure; this is what you can afford to lose, strictly from a financial point of view. Then bet using about half that amount. What this does is to limit your betting to a manageable amount; even if you go beyond “half the amount,” you still have another limit that you probably wouldn’t cross.

      Finally, know when to quit. Usually, a steady winning streak is the best time to quit. Bet less and less as you win more and more, so that you can quit profitably at the first sign of losing. This is cautious play, but better safe than sorry.

      General Sports

      Is Vick destined to be a backup in the NFL?

      March 15, 2010 /

      When Alex Marvez of FOXSports.com asked a NFL scout that watched all 64 snaps that Michael Vick took last season, this is what he said:

      “He can’t throw,” the scout said. “A guy could be open 20 yards downfield and he’ll throw it 25. He never could throw, but he was fast before. It’s not like he’s slow now but he doesn’t stick out like, ‘Wow, this guy is faster than everybody.’”

      I then sent a text message to a top NFL personnel director asking whether the lack of trade buzz surrounding Vick stems from the fact he is no longer a special athletic talent. The response: “Right on.”

      What the scout said isn’t necessarily a shocking revelation. Like the scout, many people thought that Vick couldn’t throw before he went to prison, so it stands to reason that he still can’t after he spent two years in lock up. Factor in his drop in speed and athletic ability given his age and it’s no wonder that teams aren’t jumping at the chance to trade for Vick.

      Marvez goes on:

      But if teams were convinced he could become the old Michael Vick, wouldn’t some of his former bosses have tried to acquire him by now? St. Louis general manager Billy Devaney worked in Atlanta’s front office when Vick rushed for 1,000 yards in 2006. Cleveland general manager Tom Heckert Jr. held that same position last year in Philadelphia, allowing him a day-to-day look at Vick in practice.

      The Rams and Browns entered the offseason desperate for quarterbacking help but both went in a different direction. St. Louis signed A.J. Feeley, who has experience in offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur’s offense from the time both were with the Eagles. The Browns added free agent Jake Delhomme and traded with Seattle for Seneca Wallace, who has a similar skill-set to Vick.

      It is a little surprising that a team like the Rams hasn’t made a move yet. The Eagles can’t be asking for too much in return for a quarterback that won’t be on their roster in 2011, so one would think that St. Louis would part with a sixth rounder in order to acquire Vick. But maybe teams don’t even think he’s worth that much.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      NFL

      South Dakota State head coach making history, and a name for himself

      March 15, 2010 /

      Outside of its annual World Series tournament, college baseball doesn’t get a lot of national publicity. But it’s hard not to appreciate the story of South Dakota State’s Ritchie Price, who is the youngest head coach in Division I history at age 25.

      Price played for his father, Ritch Price, at Kansas from 2003 to 2006. He landed at South Dakota State as an assistant in 2008 and then was hired as the interim head coach in 2009 when Reggie Christiansen resigned from the position following the ’08 season. After leading the Jackrabbits to a 26-30 record and a third place finish in the Summit League in 2009, Price was hired as SDS’s full-time head coach. Thus far in 2010, the Jackrabbits have compiled a 10-4 record, including a 3-2 win over Arkansas in Fayetteville.

      But outside of SDS’s early success and the fact that he’s the youngest coach in D-I history, what’s most impressive about Price is that he took over a team that used to be D-II and one that works with a small budget, virtually no home games and facilities that hardly rival that of a junior college program. The school is also in nowheresville Brookings, South Dakota, which makes it very difficult to recruit.

      But besides all of these potential hurdles, Price has found a way to breed success at SDS and knows what it takes to field a competitive team. He has coaching in his blood and if he continues on this path, it might not be long before we’re seeing the 25-year-old Price rise through the ranks and make a name for himself.

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